us sanctions with teeth

By David Ignatius Washington Post Wednesday, February 28, 2007; A19 Everybody knows that economic sanctions don't work. Just look at the decades of fruitless pressure on Cuba. But guess what? In the recent cases of North Korea and Iran, a new variety of U.S. Treasury sanctions is having a potent effect, suggesting that the conventional wisdom may be wrong. These new, targeted financial measures are to traditional sanctions what Super Glue is to Elmer's Glue-All. That is, they really stick. Deputy Treasury Secretary Robert Kimmitt doesn't even like to call them sanctions, preferring the term "law enforcement measures." Explains Stuart Levey, Treasury's undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence: "Sanctions are scoffed at. They have a bad history." Authority for the new sanctions, as with so many other policy weapons, comes from the USA Patriot Act, which in Section 311 authorizes Treasury to designate foreign financial institutions that are of "primary money laundering concern." Once a foreign bank is so designated, it is effectively cut off from the U.S. financial system. It can't clear dollars; it can't have transactions with U.S. financial institutions; it can't have correspondent relationships with American banks. The new measures work thanks to the hidden power of globalization: Because all the circuits of the global financial system are inter-wired, the U.S. quarantine effectively extends to all major banks around the world. As Levey observed in a recent speech, the impact of this little-noticed provision of the Patriot Act "has been more powerful than many thought possible." Treasury applied the new tools to North Korea in September 2005, when it put a bank in Macao called Banco Delta Asia on the blacklist. There was no legal proceeding -- just a notice in the Federal Register summarizing the evidence: Banco Delta Asia had been providing illicit financial services to North Korean government agencies and front companies for more than 20 years, according to the Treasury notice. The little Macao bank had helped the North Koreans feed counterfeit $100 bills into circulation, had laundered money from drug deals and had financed cigarette smuggling. North Korea "pays a fee to Banco Delta Asia for financial access to the banking system with little oversight or control," Treasury alleged. Wham! The international payments window shut almost instantly on Pyongyang's pet bank. Transactions with U.S. entities stopped, but the Treasury announcement also put other countries on notice to beware of Banco Delta Asia. The Macao banking authorities, realizing that they needed the oxygen of the international financial system to survive, took regulatory action on their own and froze the bank's roughly $24 million in North Korean assets. And around Asia, banks began looking for possible links to North Korean front companies -- and shutting them down. A similar financial squeeze is being applied to Iran. Here again, the impact has come from the way private financial institutions have reacted to public pressure from Treasury. "As banks do their risk-reward analysis, they must now take into account the very serious risk of doing business in Iran, and what the risks would be if they were found to be part of a terrorist or proliferation transaction," says Kimmitt. Treasury began squeezing Iran last September, when it accused Bank Saderat, one of the largest government-owned banks, of financing terrorism by funneling $50 million to Hezbollah and Hamas since 2001. The Treasury order cut the bank off from any access to the U.S financial system, direct or indirect. A similar ban was imposed in January on Bank Sepah, which Treasury alleged was a key intermediary for Iran's Aerospace Industries Organization, the agency that oversees the country's ballistic missile program. Meanwhile, top Treasury officials began visiting with bankers and finance ministers around the world, warning them to be careful about their dealings with Iranian companies that might covertly be supporting terrorism or weapons proliferation. This whispering campaign was enough to convince most big foreign banks in Europe and Japan to back away from Iran. The new sanctions are toxic because they effectively limit a country's access to the global ATM. In that sense, they impose -- at last -- a real price on countries such as North Korea and Iran that have blithely defied U.N. resolutions on proliferation. "What's the goal?" asks Levey. "To create an internal debate about whether these policies [of defiance] make sense. And that's happening in Iran. People with business sense realize that this conduct makes it hard to continue normal business relationships."

Venezuela to seize foreign oil projects

By NATALIE OBIKO PEARSON, AP Business Writer President Hugo Chavez ordered by decree on Monday the takeover of oil projects run by foreign oil companies in Venezuela's Orinoco River region. Chavez had previously announced the government's intention to take a majority stake by May 1 in four heavy oil-upgrading projects run by British Petroleum PLC, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., Total SA and Statoil ASA. He said Monday that has decreed a law to proceed with the nationalizations that will see state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, taking at least a 60 percent stake in the projects. "The privatization of oil in Venezuela has come to an end," he said on his weekday radio show, "Hello, President." "This marks the true nationalization of oil in Venezuela." By May 1, "we will occupy these fields" and have the national flag flying on them, he said. The law is expected to be published shortly in the government's official gazette, and the companies will have four months from then to negotiate terms and conditions with PDVSA to decide whether they will take part in new joint ventures as minority partners, Chavez said. Chavez did not detail how the government will pay for its increased share in the projects in which the companies are estimated to have invested some $17 billion. The government has compensated companies reasonably in recent weeks for nationalizations it has carried out in other sectors, but those agreements were for assets valued far less than the oil projects. The Orinoco projects are the only oil-producing operations in the country remaining under private control, which Chavez called "disgraceful." But he added that Venezuela doesn't "want the companies to go ... We just want them to be (minority) partners." Private companies pumping oil elsewhere in Venezuela submitted to state-controlled joint ventures last year, and few resisted because they were reluctant to abandon Venezuela, which has the largest oil deposits outside of the Middle East. Chavez has been given special powers by congress for 18 months to issue laws by decree in energy and other areas, which he has used to nationalize the country's biggest telecommunications company and electricity company in recent days. Chavez has justified the nationalizations as necessary to give the government control of sectors "strategic" to Venezuela's interests.

14 Iranian troops killed in helicopter crash

if one pays attention to the small details, this is the fourth crash of senior IRGC commanders in the last year. It also demonstrates that blowback does not only travel one direction. We need to continue to destabilize the Mullah regime in every way possible... Agence France Press Mon Feb 26, 4:55 AM ET Fourteen Iranian military personnel were killed in a helicopter crash last week during an operation against rebels close to the Turkish border, the Revolutionary Guards confirmed on Monday. A statement carried by the ISNA agency said that two commanders of the Guards' ground force and 12 other military personnel were killed in Friday's accident. Kurdish rebels had claimed they shot down the aircraft. "Commanders Ghahari Said and Dorosti of the Guards' Hamzeh Army 3, along with 12 other members of the Islamic republic's army and the Guards, were martyred in the helicopter accident," the army statement said. It said the operation against the "mercenary elements opposing the Islamic republic was carried out in the valleys close to the town of Khoy" 50 kilometres (30 miles) from the Turkish border. Iranian state media had earlier reported that the crash was "an accident due to bad weather." The Revolutionary Guards had said on Saturday they killed 17 rebels in the operation after besieging them. Pejak, a Kurdish rebel group fighting in Iran, claimed on Sunday that it had shot down an Iranian helicopter. The group, linked to Turkey's outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), also claimed to have fought an hour-long battle with Iranian troops and to have killed 20 soldiers, including senior officers. Pejak's statement, which was distributed to reporters in two cities in northern Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region, said the group had captured a survivor from the helicopter crash and killed the chief of the Iranian army's 3rd Corps. Iran's north-western West Azerbaijan province, which borders Turkey and Iraq, is the scene of regular armed clashes between Iranian border guards and Kurdish militant parties, Pejak in particular.

Israel seeks all clear for Iran air strike

By Con Coughlin in Tel Aviv Last Updated: 3:31pm GMT 24/02/2007 Israel is negotiating with the United States for permission to fly over Iraq as part of a plan to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, The Daily Telegraph can reveal. To conduct surgical air strikes against Iran's nuclear programme, Israeli war planes would need to fly across Iraq. But to do so the Israeli military authorities in Tel Aviv need permission from the Pentagon. A senior Israeli defence official said negotiations were now underway between the two countries for the US-led coalition in Iraq to provide an "air corridor" in the event of the Israeli government deciding on unilateral military action to prevent Teheran developing nuclear weapons. "We are planning for every eventuality, and sorting out issues such as these are crucially important," said the official, who asked not to be named. "The only way to do this is to fly through US-controlled air space. If we don't sort these issues out now we could have a situation where American and Israeli war planes start shooting at each other." As Iran continues to defy UN demands to stop producing material which could be used to build a nuclear bomb, Israel's military establishment is moving on to a war footing, with preparations now well under way for the Jewish state to launch air strikes against Teheran if diplomatic efforts fail to resolve the crisis. The pace of military planning in Israel has accelerated markedly since the start of this year after Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, provided a stark intelligence assessment that Iran, given the current rate of progress being made on its uranium enrichment programme, could have enough fissile material for a nuclear warhead by 2009. Last week Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, announced that he had persuaded Meir Dagan, the head of Mossad for the past six years and one of Israel's leading experts on Iran's nuclear programme, to defer his retirement until at least the end of next year. Mr Olmert has also given overall control of the military aspects of the Iran issue to Eliezer Shkedi, the head of the Israeli Air Force and a former F-16 fighter pilot. The international community will increase the pressure on Iran when senior officials from the five permanent of the United Nations Security Council and Germany meet at an emergency summit to be held in London on Monday. Iran ignored a UN deadline of last Wednesday to halt uranium enrichment. Officials will discuss arms controls and whether to cut back on the $25 billion-worth of export credits which are used by European companies to trade with Iran. A high-ranking British source said: "There is a debate within the six countries on sanctions and economic measures." British officials insist that this "incremental" approach of tightening the pressure on Iran is starting to turn opinion within Iran. One source said: "We are on the right track. There is time for diplomacy to take effect."

Syria said to boost arsenal after war

By STEVE WEIZMAN, The Associated PressFeb 22, 2007 7:33 AM JERUSALEM - Syria has embarked on an "unprecedented" effort to bolster its armed forces with Iranian and Russian help, the Israeli daily Haaretz reported Thursday. Damascus has large numbers of surface-based missiles and long-range rockets, including the Scud-D, capable of reaching nearly any target in Israel, the report said, and the Syrian navy has received new Iranian anti-ship missiles. Haaretz also said Russia was about to sell Syria thousands of advanced anti-tank missiles, despite Israeli charges that in the past Syria has transferred those missiles to Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon. Syrian officials did not immediately comment on the Israeli reports, but President Bashar Assad said in a television interview immediately after the fighting that Syria was preparing to defend itself. Israeli defense officials confirmed that Syria had ordered new stocks of the anti-tank weapons after noting Hezbollah's successful use of them against Israeli armor in last summer's fighting in south Lebanon. Syria also ordered new supplies of surface-to-sea missiles after Hezbollah used one to hit an Israeli warship, killing four crewmen, off the Lebanese coast last July, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. The officials said Syrian ground forces adjacent to the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights had been reinforced after the outbreak of last year's Israel-Hezbollah conflict and had not yet fully returned to their prewar footing. Israel and Syria are officially at war, though there have been no open hostilities between them for decades. Syria has demanded the return of the Golan, which Israel captured in 1967 and later annexed, as the price for any peace deal. Israel says it will not discuss a formal treaty with its northern neighbor as long as Damascus continues to back Hezbollah and the radical Islamic Hamas group.

US Navy buildup came after iran moves

U.S. Navy's Mideast Buildup Came After Iranian Provocations in Gulf, Navy Commander Says By JIM KRANE The Associated Press MANAMA, Bahrain - Iran has brought its war games maneuvers over the past year into busy shipping lanes in the Straits of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which two-fifths of the world's oil supplies pass, the top U.S. Navy commander in the Mideast said. The moves have alarmed U.S. officials about possible accidental confrontations that could boil over into war, and led to a recent build-up of Navy forces in the Gulf, Vice Adm. Patrick Walsh said in an interview with The Associated Press and other reporters. During maneuvers, Iranian sailors have loaded mines onto small minelaying boats and test-fired a Shahab-3 ballistic missile into international waters, he said. "The Shahab-3 most recently went into waters very close to the traffic separation scheme in the straits themselves. This gives us concern because innocent passage of vessels now is threatened," Walsh said in the interview Monday on the base of the Navy's Fifth Fleet in the Gulf island kingdom of Bahrain. Iran tested the Shahab during November maneuvers, which it said were in response to U.S. maneuvers in the Gulf it called "adventurist." Iran also showed off an array of new torpedoes in war games in April. The carrier USS John C. Stennis backed by a strike group with more than 6,500 sailors and Marines and with additional minesweeping ships arrived in the region Monday. It joined the carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower after President Bush ordered the build-up as a show of strength to Iran. The additional U.S. firepower has ratcheted up tensions with Iran. But Walsh said the increase aims to reassure Arab allies in the Gulf and prevent misunderstandings that could escalate into outright conflict. "That's certainly what we're trying to avoid, a mistake that then boils over into a war," said Walsh, who departs his command of the Fifth Fleet this month to become vice chief of naval operations at the Pentagon, the Navy's No. 2 post. Walsh said the Navy was responding to "more instability than we've seen in years" in the Fifth Fleet's region with conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia, tensions in Lebanon and the standoff with Iran. The Navy has grown increasingly alarmed at what Walsh called Iran's "provocations." Once cordial Navy ship-to-ship relations with Iran in the Gulf have disintegrated over the past 18 months as Iranian vessels made "probing" incursions into Iraqi waters, he said. "They threaten to use oil as a weapon. They threaten to close the Straits of Hormuz," Walsh said. "And so it is the combination of the rhetoric, the tone, and the aggressive exercises in very constrained waters that gives us concern." Since the Stennis was ordered to the region, Iranian leaders have increasingly warned that they would respond to any attack by closing off oil shipping lanes or attacking U.S. interests. The Straits of Hormuz are 34 miles across, but its shipping lanes are only about six miles wide. Walsh said it was doubtful that Iran could physically block the entire six-mile lanes with mines but hitting only a few vessels with missiles and mines would "terrorize" shipping and have the same effect. "It's more the threat of mines than the threat of closing the straits. That would have dramatic effects on markets around the world," he said. Walsh said his biggest worry was that Iran would underestimate U.S. resolve to protect its interests in the world's richest oil region. He said the tone of Iranian leaders could make their commanders on the ground more reckless. "It's a mix and a formulation where you can have misunderstanding," he said. Asked whether the U.S. Navy would launch an attack on Iran if Iranian involvement were confirmed in a deadly incident in Iraq, Walsh said he was unable to discuss the Navy's rules of engagement. But he added, "There are events on land that can spill over onto the sea." At the same time, Walsh said he understood that U.S.-allied Gulf nations feared that any U.S.-Iranian military conflict could bring attacks on their soil. Walsh said he was aware that a University of Maryland/Zogby International poll of Arab public opinion this month showed residents of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other allies believe Iran is far less a threat than the U.S. and Israel. "I'm trying to talk to those in the region, to give them assurances that the reason we're here is to stand by them," he said.

Afghan forces retake town

By AMIR SHAH KABUL (AP) - Afghan security forces supported by NATO troops recaptured a town in western Afghanistan on Tuesday that briefly fell to Taliban militants, an official said. About 200 Afghan police and soldiers moved into the remote town of Bakwa in Farah province early Tuesday and faced no resistance, said Gov. Muhajuddin Baluch. He said some NATO troops joined the operation. The Afghan forces were searching the vicinity for the militants, who moved into Bakwa on Monday and briefly held it and then left, taking three seized vehicles with them, he said. It was the second time this month that the government has lost control of a district in the region. Meanwhile, a U.S. soldier was killed during combat operations on Monday in the Naray area of eastern Kunar province, the U.S. military said in a brief statement. At least 297 American soldiers have died in and around Afghanistan since U.S. forces invaded in late 2001 to topple the hardline Taliban regime. The name of the latest fatality was being withheld pending notification of next of kin, the statement said. Also on Monday, U.S.-led coalition forces dropped a 910-kilogram bomb on a cave where insurgents retreated after a clash in southern Uruzgan province, U.S. military spokesman Lt. Col. David Accetta said. He had no details on insurgent casualties. The past year has seen a surge in violence in Afghanistan, and militants are posing an increasing challenge to the weak power of President Hamid Karzai's government. Baluch said authorities had not re-established contact with the police commander who abandoned his post in Bakwa on Monday as the Taliban moved in. Afghan army troops will stay with police in Bakwa for 10 to 15 days to consolidate their control, he said. The police retreat followed Sunday's bombing of a car carrying the province's police chief on his return from destroying opium poppy fields - an eradication campaign opposed by many farmers. The police chief was unharmed, but four other officers in the vehicle were killed and two wounded. Baryalaj Khan, spokesman for the Farah police chief, blamed Taliban militants for the attack, saying they were involved in the drug trade, but gave no evidence to support his claim. Bakwa is about 65 kilometres from Helmand, the hub of Afghanistan's world-leading illicit opium and heroin industry. It was the second town to fall from government hands this month. Taliban militants overran Helmand's town of Musa Qala on Feb. 1, defying a peace deal between the government and elders last year that capped weeks of fighting. The government is negotiating with elders to get them to persuade the militants to leave.

Al Qaeda chiefs are seen to regain power

By MARK MAZZETTI and DAVID ROHDE New York Times WASHINGTON, Feb. 18 — Senior leaders of Al Qaeda operating from Pakistan have re-established significant control over their once-battered worldwide terror network and over the past year have set up a band of training camps in the tribal regions near the Afghan border, according to American intelligence and counterterrorism officials. American officials said there was mounting evidence that Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, had been steadily building an operations hub in the mountainous Pakistani tribal area of North Waziristan. Until recently, the Bush administration had described Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri as detached from their followers and cut off from operational control of Al Qaeda. The United States has also identified several new Qaeda compounds in North Waziristan, including one that officials said might be training operatives for strikes against targets beyond Afghanistan. American analysts said recent intelligence showed that the compounds functioned under a loose command structure and were operated by groups of Arab, Pakistani and Afghan militants allied with Al Qaeda. They receive guidance from their commanders and Mr. Zawahri, the analysts said. Mr. bin Laden, who has long played less of an operational role, appears to have little direct involvement. Officials said the training camps had yet to reach the size and level of sophistication of the Qaeda camps established in Afghanistan under Taliban rule. But groups of 10 to 20 men are being trained at the camps, the officials said, and the Qaeda infrastructure in the region is gradually becoming more mature. The new warnings are different from those made in recent months by intelligence officials and terrorism experts, who have spoken about the growing abilities of Taliban forces and Pakistani militants to launch attacks into Afghanistan. American officials say that the new intelligence is focused on Al Qaeda and points to the prospect that the terrorist network is gaining in strength despite more than five years of a sustained American-led campaign to weaken it. The intelligence and counterterrorism officials would discuss the classified intelligence only on the condition of anonymity. They would not provide some of the evidence that led them to their assessments, saying that revealing the information would disclose too much about the sources and methods of intelligence collection. The concern about a resurgent Al Qaeda has been the subject of intensive discussion at high levels of the Bush administration, the officials said, and has reignited debate about how to address Pakistan’s role as a haven for militants without undermining the government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president. Last week, President Bush’s senior counterterrorism adviser, Frances Fragos Townsend, went to Afghanistan during a Middle East trip to meet with security officials about rising concerns on Al Qaeda’s resurgence in Afghanistan and Pakistan, an administration official said. Officials from several different American intelligence and counterterrorism agencies presented a consistent picture in describing the developments as a major setback to American efforts against Al Qaeda. But debates within the administration about how best to deal with the threat have yet to yield any good solutions, officials in Washington said. One counterterrorism official said that some within the Pentagon were advocating American strikes against the camps, but that others argued that any raids could result in civilian casualties. And State Department officials say increased American pressure could undermine President Musharraf’s military-led government. Some of the interviews with officials were granted after John D. Negroponte, then the director of national intelligence, told Congress last month that “Al Qaeda’s core elements are resilient” and that the organization was “cultivating stronger operational connections and relationships that radiate outward from their leaders’ secure hide-out in Pakistan to affiliates throughout the Middle East, North Africa and Europe.” As recently as 2005, American intelligence assessments described senior leaders of Al Qaeda as cut off from their foot soldiers and able only to provide inspiration for future attacks. But more recent intelligence describes the organization’s hierarchy as intact and strengthening. “The chain of command has been re-established,” said one American government official, who said that the Qaeda “leadership command and control is robust.” American officials and analysts said a variety of factors in Pakistan had come together to allow “core Al Qaeda” — a reference to Mr. bin Laden and his immediate circle — to regain some of its strength. The emergence of a relative haven in North Waziristan and the surrounding area has helped senior operatives communicate more effectively with the outside world via courier and the Internet. The investigation into last summer’s failed plot to bomb airliners in London has led counterterrorism officials to what they say are “clear linkages” between the plotters and core Qaeda operatives in Pakistan. American analysts point out that the trials of terrorism suspects in Britain revealed that some of the defendants had been trained in Pakistan. In a videotaped statement last year, Mr. Zawahri claimed responsibility for the July 2005 London suicide bombings. Included in the same tape was a statement by one of the London suicide bombers, pledging allegiance to Al Qaeda. Two of the four bombers traveled to Pakistan prior to the attack. Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University, told the House Armed Services Committee last week that Al Qaeda “is on the march.” He said, “Al Qaeda in fact is now functioning exactly as its founder and leader, Osama bin Laden, envisioned it,” because, he said, Qaeda leaders are planning major attacks and inspiring militants to carry out attacks around the globe. Other experts questioned the seriousness of Pakistan’s commitment. They argued that elements of Pakistan’s military still supported the Taliban and saw them as a valuable proxy to counter the rising influence of India, Pakistan’s regional rival. Since 2001, members of various militant groups in Pakistan have increased their cooperation with one another in the tribal areas, according to American analysts. The analysts said that North Waziristan became a hub of militant activity last year, after President Musharraf negotiated a treaty with tribal leaders in the area. He pledged to pull troops back to barracks in the area in exchange for tribal leaders’ ending support for cross-border attacks into Afghanistan, but officials in Washington and Islamabad conceded that the agreement had been a failure. During a news conference days before last November’s elections, President Bush said of the campaign against Al Qaeda: “Absolutely, we’re winning. Al Qaeda is on the run.”But in a speech several days ago, Mr. Bush painted a more sober picture of Al Qaeda’s current strength, especially inside Pakistan. “Taliban and Al Qaeda figures do hide in remote regions of Pakistan,” Mr. Bush said. “This is wild country; this is wilder than the Wild West. And these folks hide and recruit and launch attacks.” Officials said that both American and foreign intelligence services had collected evidence leading them to conclude that at least one of the camps in Pakistan might be training operatives capable of striking Western targets. A particular concern is that the camps are frequented by British citizens of Pakistani descent who travel to Pakistan on British passports. In a speech in November, the director general of MI5, Britain’s domestic intelligence agency, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, said that terrorist plots in Britain “often have links back to Al Qaeda in Pakistan.” She said that “through those links, Al Qaeda gives guidance and training to its largely British foot soldiers here on an extensive and growing scale.” Officials said that the United States still had little idea where Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri had been hiding since 2001, but that the two men were not believed to be present in the camps currently operating in North Waziristan. Among the indicators that American officials cited as a sign that Qaeda leaders felt more secure was the release of 21 statements by Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri in 2006, roughly twice the number as in the previous year. In the past, statements issued by Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri referred to events that were sometimes several weeks old, one official said, suggesting that the men had difficulty creating a secure means of distributing the tapes. Now, the statements are more current, at times referring to events that occurred days earlier. American intelligence and counterterrorism officials said that most of the men receiving training in Pakistan had been carrying out attacks inside Afghanistan, but that Al Qaeda had also strengthened its ties to groups in Iraq that had sworn allegiance to Mr. bin Laden. They said dozens of seasoned fighters were moving between Pakistan and Iraq, apparently engaging in an “exchange of best practices” for attacking American forces. Over the past year, insurgent tactics from Iraq have migrated to Afghanistan, where suicide bombings have increased fivefold and roadside bomb attacks have doubled. In testimony to the House Armed Services Committee last week, Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, the departing commander of coalition forces in Afghanistan, said the United States could not prevail in Afghanistan and defeat global terrorism without addressing the havens in Pakistan. Pakistani officials say that they are doing their best to gain control of the area and that military efforts to pacify it have failed, but that more reconstruction aid is needed. Officials said that over the past year, Al Qaeda had also shown an increased international capability, citing as an example its alliance with the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, an Algerian-based group that has carried out a series of attacks in recent months. Last fall, the Algerian group renamed itself Al Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb. Officials in Washington say they believe that the group is linked to a recent string of sophisticated car bombings and other attacks in Algeria, including a December attack on a bus carrying Halliburton contractors.

Al Qaeda chiefs are seen to regain power

By MARK MAZZETTI and DAVID ROHDE New York Times WASHINGTON, Feb. 18 — Senior leaders of Al Qaeda operating from Pakistan have re-established significant control over their once-battered worldwide terror network and over the past year have set up a band of training camps in the tribal regions near the Afghan border, according to American intelligence and counterterrorism officials. American officials said there was mounting evidence that Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, had been steadily building an operations hub in the mountainous Pakistani tribal area of North Waziristan. Until recently, the Bush administration had described Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri as detached from their followers and cut off from operational control of Al Qaeda. The United States has also identified several new Qaeda compounds in North Waziristan, including one that officials said might be training operatives for strikes against targets beyond Afghanistan. American analysts said recent intelligence showed that the compounds functioned under a loose command structure and were operated by groups of Arab, Pakistani and Afghan militants allied with Al Qaeda. They receive guidance from their commanders and Mr. Zawahri, the analysts said. Mr. bin Laden, who has long played less of an operational role, appears to have little direct involvement. Officials said the training camps had yet to reach the size and level of sophistication of the Qaeda camps established in Afghanistan under Taliban rule. But groups of 10 to 20 men are being trained at the camps, the officials said, and the Qaeda infrastructure in the region is gradually becoming more mature. The new warnings are different from those made in recent months by intelligence officials and terrorism experts, who have spoken about the growing abilities of Taliban forces and Pakistani militants to launch attacks into Afghanistan. American officials say that the new intelligence is focused on Al Qaeda and points to the prospect that the terrorist network is gaining in strength despite more than five years of a sustained American-led campaign to weaken it. The intelligence and counterterrorism officials would discuss the classified intelligence only on the condition of anonymity. They would not provide some of the evidence that led them to their assessments, saying that revealing the information would disclose too much about the sources and methods of intelligence collection. The concern about a resurgent Al Qaeda has been the subject of intensive discussion at high levels of the Bush administration, the officials said, and has reignited debate about how to address Pakistan’s role as a haven for militants without undermining the government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president. Last week, President Bush’s senior counterterrorism adviser, Frances Fragos Townsend, went to Afghanistan during a Middle East trip to meet with security officials about rising concerns on Al Qaeda’s resurgence in Afghanistan and Pakistan, an administration official said. Officials from several different American intelligence and counterterrorism agencies presented a consistent picture in describing the developments as a major setback to American efforts against Al Qaeda. But debates within the administration about how best to deal with the threat have yet to yield any good solutions, officials in Washington said. One counterterrorism official said that some within the Pentagon were advocating American strikes against the camps, but that others argued that any raids could result in civilian casualties. And State Department officials say increased American pressure could undermine President Musharraf’s military-led government. Some of the interviews with officials were granted after John D. Negroponte, then the director of national intelligence, told Congress last month that “Al Qaeda’s core elements are resilient” and that the organization was “cultivating stronger operational connections and relationships that radiate outward from their leaders’ secure hide-out in Pakistan to affiliates throughout the Middle East, North Africa and Europe.” As recently as 2005, American intelligence assessments described senior leaders of Al Qaeda as cut off from their foot soldiers and able only to provide inspiration for future attacks. But more recent intelligence describes the organization’s hierarchy as intact and strengthening. “The chain of command has been re-established,” said one American government official, who said that the Qaeda “leadership command and control is robust.” American officials and analysts said a variety of factors in Pakistan had come together to allow “core Al Qaeda” — a reference to Mr. bin Laden and his immediate circle — to regain some of its strength. The emergence of a relative haven in North Waziristan and the surrounding area has helped senior operatives communicate more effectively with the outside world via courier and the Internet. The investigation into last summer’s failed plot to bomb airliners in London has led counterterrorism officials to what they say are “clear linkages” between the plotters and core Qaeda operatives in Pakistan. American analysts point out that the trials of terrorism suspects in Britain revealed that some of the defendants had been trained in Pakistan. In a videotaped statement last year, Mr. Zawahri claimed responsibility for the July 2005 London suicide bombings. Included in the same tape was a statement by one of the London suicide bombers, pledging allegiance to Al Qaeda. Two of the four bombers traveled to Pakistan prior to the attack. Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University, told the House Armed Services Committee last week that Al Qaeda “is on the march.” He said, “Al Qaeda in fact is now functioning exactly as its founder and leader, Osama bin Laden, envisioned it,” because, he said, Qaeda leaders are planning major attacks and inspiring militants to carry out attacks around the globe. Other experts questioned the seriousness of Pakistan’s commitment. They argued that elements of Pakistan’s military still supported the Taliban and saw them as a valuable proxy to counter the rising influence of India, Pakistan’s regional rival. Since 2001, members of various militant groups in Pakistan have increased their cooperation with one another in the tribal areas, according to American analysts. The analysts said that North Waziristan became a hub of militant activity last year, after President Musharraf negotiated a treaty with tribal leaders in the area. He pledged to pull troops back to barracks in the area in exchange for tribal leaders’ ending support for cross-border attacks into Afghanistan, but officials in Washington and Islamabad conceded that the agreement had been a failure. During a news conference days before last November’s elections, President Bush said of the campaign against Al Qaeda: “Absolutely, we’re winning. Al Qaeda is on the run.”But in a speech several days ago, Mr. Bush painted a more sober picture of Al Qaeda’s current strength, especially inside Pakistan. “Taliban and Al Qaeda figures do hide in remote regions of Pakistan,” Mr. Bush said. “This is wild country; this is wilder than the Wild West. And these folks hide and recruit and launch attacks.” Officials said that both American and foreign intelligence services had collected evidence leading them to conclude that at least one of the camps in Pakistan might be training operatives capable of striking Western targets. A particular concern is that the camps are frequented by British citizens of Pakistani descent who travel to Pakistan on British passports. In a speech in November, the director general of MI5, Britain’s domestic intelligence agency, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, said that terrorist plots in Britain “often have links back to Al Qaeda in Pakistan.” She said that “through those links, Al Qaeda gives guidance and training to its largely British foot soldiers here on an extensive and growing scale.” Officials said that the United States still had little idea where Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri had been hiding since 2001, but that the two men were not believed to be present in the camps currently operating in North Waziristan. Among the indicators that American officials cited as a sign that Qaeda leaders felt more secure was the release of 21 statements by Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri in 2006, roughly twice the number as in the previous year. In the past, statements issued by Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri referred to events that were sometimes several weeks old, one official said, suggesting that the men had difficulty creating a secure means of distributing the tapes. Now, the statements are more current, at times referring to events that occurred days earlier. American intelligence and counterterrorism officials said that most of the men receiving training in Pakistan had been carrying out attacks inside Afghanistan, but that Al Qaeda had also strengthened its ties to groups in Iraq that had sworn allegiance to Mr. bin Laden. They said dozens of seasoned fighters were moving between Pakistan and Iraq, apparently engaging in an “exchange of best practices” for attacking American forces. Over the past year, insurgent tactics from Iraq have migrated to Afghanistan, where suicide bombings have increased fivefold and roadside bomb attacks have doubled. In testimony to the House Armed Services Committee last week, Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry, the departing commander of coalition forces in Afghanistan, said the United States could not prevail in Afghanistan and defeat global terrorism without addressing the havens in Pakistan. Pakistani officials say that they are doing their best to gain control of the area and that military efforts to pacify it have failed, but that more reconstruction aid is needed. Officials said that over the past year, Al Qaeda had also shown an increased international capability, citing as an example its alliance with the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, an Algerian-based group that has carried out a series of attacks in recent months. Last fall, the Algerian group renamed itself Al Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb. Officials in Washington say they believe that the group is linked to a recent string of sophisticated car bombings and other attacks in Algeria, including a December attack on a bus carrying Halliburton contractors.

Polish Premier supportive of US Base

By RYAN LUCAS - Associated Press Writer WARSAW, Poland -- The prime minister voiced support Thursday for a U.S. missile defense base on Polish soil - as long as Warsaw can negotiate a good agreement with Washington. Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski's comments were the clearest sign of support so far from the Polish government for the U.S. request to host a missile interceptor site. Russia has sharply criticized the plan, as well as a U.S. proposal to build a radar system in the Czech Republic, saying it could disturb the balance of power in the region and stoke a new arms race. Kaczynski said at a news conference that Poland is "in favor of reaching an agreement on the missile defense issue," but he added that "doesn't mean we will accept every condition." He did not elaborate on what a good deal for Poland would entail, although Polish officials have suggested the U.S. could take other steps to ensure Warsaw's security, such as offering Poland Patriot air defense missiles. Kaczynski said he planned to discuss the issue with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice by telephone. The United States said last month that it wanted to build a missile defense system in eastern Europe. Both Warsaw and Prague have since said they were willing to start negotiations with Washington on hosting different components. Polish critics of the system fear it could make the country a target for terrorist attacks. Some have also voiced disappointment over the perceived lack of U.S. rewards for sending Polish troops to Iraq, leading to skepticism about the benefits of the missile defense plan. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also warned that Moscow could take retaliatory measures if Washington goes ahead with the plan. Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, chief of the Russian military's General Staff, said Thursday that Moscow may unilaterally drop out of a key Soviet-era arms reduction treaty with the U.S. that banned medium-range nuclear missiles, Russian news agencies reported. Putin said Saturday that the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, negotiated between Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and President Reagan in 1987, was outdated. The U.S. says its missile defense system would not be aimed at Russia but at threats from the Middle East such as Iran.

Join the Victory Caucus

Our Mission Deliver the perspectives and news on the war effort which the mainstream media neglects to help the American public understand the nature of our conflict and its true progress. Provide tools and infrastructure to help citizens who are committed to victory organize into a recognized and influential caucus Identify opportunities for the caucus to act and exert influence on America’s leaders and to directly aid and support the men and women of our military Our Beliefs We support victory in the war against radical Islamists. We supported the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and we believe victory is necessary in both countries for America's self-defense. We believe that the radical regime in Iran, while not representative of the Iranian people, is a menace and that it cannot be allowed to obtain or build nuclear weapons. We believe that Hezbollah is a terrorist organization that has killed hundreds of Americans and which waged war against Israel in violation of every law of war this past summer, and will do so again in the future. We believe Israel is our ally and friend and deserves the full assistance of the United States in its battle with radical Islamists. We believe that Israel has repeatedly shown its willingness to negotiate a just and lasting peace, but that its enemies do not want peace, but the destruction of Israel. We believe that the American military is the finest in the world and indeed in history, well led and superbly trained, and populated at every level by America's best and brightest. We support the troops, and those organizations which assist the wounded in their recoveries and support the families of those who sacrificed everything. We support leaders who support victory.

The Iraqi Surge's Purge

INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Editorial Iraq: Muqtada al-Sadr reportedly flees to Iran in advance of the arrival of American reinforcements, and the head of al-Qaida in Iraq orders a withdrawal from Baghdad. Could it be the surge is already working? The anti-American Shiite cleric, according to Maj. Gen. William Caldwell, chief U.S. military spokesman in Iraq, has fled his Baghdad stronghold for the more friendly confines of Tehran and is staying there with family, if only temporarily. The reported exodus coincidentally comes in advance of the arrival of U.S. reinforcements as part of an imminent security crackdown in Baghdad and a 72-hour closure of the Iraq-Iran border by Iraqi security forces. It also comes after the easing of special protection of Sadr and his people by the Iraqi government. Sadr is believed to fear for his safety, knowing he will be the target of the crackdown. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki dropped his special protection of the Mahdi army, consenting to the recent arrest of Abdul Hadi al Durraji, Sadr's media director. Some 400 of Sadr's supporters are also in custody. Sadr recently let his representatives in the Iraqi government end their boycott and resume their participation. RealClearPolitics.com correspondent Jack Kelly reports that Mahdi army militia stopped wearing their black uniforms; they also hid their weapons and abandoned their checkpoints. Sadr reportedly was going to make a speech Monday in Najaf to mark the anniversary of the bombing of an important Shiite shrine north of Baghdad, but he did not do so. Clearly the rules on the ground and in Baghdad are changing, and Sadr knows it. He has family in Iran, and this reported respite may only be temporary. But we find it curious that it comes at a time of a crackdown and amid reports that many of the weapons used by Iraqi jihadists against U.S. forces are made in Iran. Sadr and his Mahdi army have ties with Iran through Hezbollah, Tehran's puppet army involved in another "civil war" in Lebanon. Just as Iran supports, funds and provides improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and other arms to terrorists in Iraq, Hezbollah, founded by Iran in 1982, is its wholly owned subsidiary in Lebanon. The "civil wars" in Iraq and Lebanon are inextricably linked. So far, the surge plan that Bush proposes and the Democrats condemn as "escalation" seems to be working. A military intelligence officer has confirmed to Richard Miniter, editor of Pajamas Media, a report in an Iraqi newspaper that in preparation for reinforcements, al-Qaida in Iraq is re-redeploying its forces. The Iraqi paper al-Sabah reports that Abu Ayyub al-Masri, who replaced Abu Musab al-Zarqawi when we achieved a victory in the war on terror by killing him, has ordered his forces to withdraw to Diyala province, north and east to Baghdad, with the order saying that to remain in Baghdad would be a no-win situation. Muqtada al-Sadr may be coming to the same conclusion.

Taliban flee battle using children as shields

KABUL (Reuters) - Taliban fighters used children as human shields to flee heavy fighting this week during an operation by foreign and Afghan forces to clear rebels from around a key hydrolectric dam, NATO said on Wednesday. The Taliban have used human shields before, but never children, local residents say. The fighting occurred during Operation Kryptonite on Monday, an offensive to clear insurgents from the Kajaki Dam area in southern Helmand province to allow repairs to its power plants and the installation of extra capacity. "During this action Taliban extremists resorted to the use of human shields. Specifically, using local Afghan children to cover as they escaped out of the area," Colonel Tom Collins, a spokesman for the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) told reporters in Kabul. NATO and foreign forces ran into heavy small arms and rocket-propelled grenade fire during the clash, but suffered no casualties, Collins said. The fighting occurred in an area where 700 mainly foreign fighters, including Chechens, Pakistanis and Uzbeks, arrived from Pakistan this week to reinforce Taliban guerrillas targeting the dam, according to local officials. Earlier on Wednesday, NATO said it had killed a Taliban leader in a pre-dawn airstrike between the dam and the nearby town of Musa Qala, to the west, which the rebels have held for 13 days. NATO said there were no civilian casualties, but local tribal leader Haji Sultan said several villagers were killed. Helmand Governor Asadullah Wafa would not comment. The Kajaki dam has seen major fighting in recent weeks between the Taliban and NATO forces, mainly British and Dutch. NATO-led forces have been conducting operations in the area for several months to allow reconstruction on the dam and the power transmission lines to boost output, after fighting halted repair and development work last year. The Taliban cannot destroy the dam, which would also flood a large area of the Helmand Valley, but its tactics are aimed at making it too unsafe for work to go ahead. On Tuesday, two Afghan army officers and a police officer were killed in a joint attack with NATO forces on a bomb-making operation in southern Uruzgan province, just to the north of Musa Qala and Kajaki. Ten suspected insurgents were captured in the operation, NATO said in a statement.

Iraqi insurgents using austrian rifles from iran

By Thomas Harding, Defence Correspondent UK Telegraph Last Updated: 11:55am GMT 13/02/2007 Austrian sniper rifles that were exported to Iran have been discovered in the hands of Iraqi terrorists, The Daily Telegraph has learned. More than 100 of the.50 calibre weapons, capable of penetrating body armour, have been discovered by American troops during raids. The Steyr HS50 is a long range, high precision rifle. The guns were part of a shipment of 800 rifles that the Austrian company, Steyr-Mannlicher, exported legally to Iran last year. The sale was condemned in Washington and London because officials were worried that the weapons would be used by insurgents against British and American troops. Within 45 days of the first HS50 Steyr Mannlicher rifles arriving in Iran, an American officer in an armoured vehicle was shot dead by an Iraqi insurgent using the weapon. Over the last six months American forces have found small caches of the £10,000 rifles but in the last 24 hours a raid in Baghdad brought the total to more than 100, US defence sources reported. The find is the latest in a series of discoveries that indicate that Teheran is providing support to Iraq's Shia insurgents. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, yesterday denied that Iran had supplied weapons to Iraqi insurgents. But on Sunday US officials in Baghdad displayed a range of weapons they claimed had originated in Iran. They said 170 American and British soldiers had been killed by such weapons. The discovery of the sniper rifles will further encourage those in Washington who want to see Iran's uranium-enriching facilities destroyed before a nuclear weapon is produced. The Foreign Office expressed "serious concerns" over the sale of the rifles last year and Britain protested to the Austrian government. A Foreign Office spokesman said last night: "Although we did make our worries known the sale unfortunately went ahead and now the potential that these weapons could fall into the wrong hands appears to have happened."The rifle can pierce all body armour from up to a mile and penetrate armoured Humvee troop carriers. It is highly accurate and fires a round called an armour piercing incendiary, a bullet that the Iranians manufacture. The National Iranian Police Organisation bought the rifles allegedly to use them against drug smugglers in an £8 million order placed with Steyr in 2005. The company was given permission to export them by the Austrian government, which is not a Nato member.

Klaus for US base in czech republic

Prague- Czech President Vaclav Klaus expressed support for the possible stationing of a U.S. radar defence base in the Czech Republic, he said in an interview for today's issue of the daily Hospodarske noviny, but he added that a number of details must yet be adjusted. "Yes, on conditions that thousands of details are tuned-up," Klaus told HN. "There is a number of subjects to discussion. For instance, the 'tuning-up'of the issue concerning relations between the Czech Republic and the USA in relation to relations between the Czech Republic and NATO and the EU," Klaus said. Klaus also said he agrees with the National Security Council to give the green light to negotiations on the U.S. radar base. He added he is also glad that a serious debate on the base has started. "The debate is political, it has also its civic grounds, political parties express their opinions in it. I would consider it immensely unfortunate if we narrowed this debate in this phase again to yes or now as some politicians are trying to do. Let us debate military, legal and international implications and let us clarify them. Only then it will be easy to say yes or no," Klaus said. Klaus also reacted to Russian opposition to the planned U.S. defence base in Central Europe. In connection with his planned visit to Russia and talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, Klaus said that he must wait whether Putin would touch upon this issue at all. Klaus recalled that the same debate had been around the Czech Republic's entry into NATO. Klaus pointed out that Russian representatives had always pronounced very strong statements on this topic for "domestic audiences." "At the moment you have been leading talks with them for two hours, they do not mention this issue at all. They can simply divide genres very carefully," said Klaus. The USA officially asked for the building of a radar on the Czech military training grounds Brdy, some 70km southwest of Prague, in January. The Czech Foreign Ministry is to send the answer to the official U.S. note within a couple of weeks. The USA would like to build a missile defence base in the neighbouring Poland that would be interconnected with the radar system in the Czech Republic.

US Bombing campaign intensifies in Afghanistan

By Tom Vanden Brook, USA TODAY SEVILLE, Spain — The Pentagon is ramping up its bombing campaign in Afghanistan as it plans a major offensive against the resurgent Taliban in the spring. Close-air-support missions flown by U.S. Air Force pilots increased nearly 80% in the first five weeks of 2007 compared with the same period last year, records show. The Air Force plans to send in dozens more precision bomb-targeting systems that allow troops on the ground to call in airstrikes within a few hundred yards of their own position. That technology, called ROVER (Remotely Operated Video Enhanced Receiver), allows troops on the ground to share video with pilots in attack aircraft so they both see the target simultaneously, said Lt. Col. Greg Harbin, one of the lead officers on the Air Force ROVER program. He plans to deliver 50 systems to coalition forces in Afghanistan in March. Along with increasing the effectiveness of airstrikes, the systems will reduce the number of "friendly fire" incidents that have strained relations between U.S. and allied militaries, Harbin said. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said NATO allies agreed Thursday on an Afghan strategy that includes fighting the Taliban, developing the government and economy and training and equipping the Afghan army. The Taliban gains strength each spring, Gates said. The fundamentalist Islamic movement ran Afghanistan until it was ousted by U.S. and allied forces in October 2001. "It's important we knock that back," Gates said of the Taliban's resurgence. He spoke to reporters after meeting in Seville with defense ministers from NATO countries. Last month, President Bush asked Congress to spend $10 billion in Afghanistan over the next two years — $8 billion to train and equip Afghan security forces and $2 billion to fund reconstruction projects. The Pentagon also announced Jan. 25 that 3,200 U.S. soldiers with the 10th Mountain Division will stay in Afghanistan four more months to bolster the force there. There are about 21,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan: 13,000 of them work with NATO troops in the International Security Assistance Force; 8,000 train Afghan troops and mount counterterrorist operations. Two NATO nations, Denmark and Lithuania, agreed Thursday to bolster their small contingents in Afghanistan. Franz-Josef Jung, Germany's defense minister, questioned the need to send more troops to Afghanistan. "I do not think it is right to talk about more and more military means," Jung said. "When the Russians were in Afghanistan, they had 100,000 troops and didn't win." Gates said some NATO nations lifted restrictions on how and where their troops are used. He did not provide specifics on the restrictions, also called caveats. The caveats placed on allied troops have stymied U.S. efforts to counter the Taliban insurgency. Some restrictions involve a refusal to fight in bad weather or in certain parts of the country, said a November report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). Gen. James Jones, who heads the U.S. European Command, asked Germany last fall to send troops to southern Afghanistan to fight the Taliban, but Germany declined, according to the report. NATO asked France, Turkey, Italy and Spain to send troops to the south, but they, too, declined. The countries said that they had committed troops to peacekeeping forces in Lebanon or that their own areas of responsibility in Afghanistan remained "restive," according to the CRS report. Though the report noted that problems with caveats remain in Afghanistan, it said the Netherlands had increased its fighting role despite the move's unpopularity with Dutch voters. Coalition nations have been involved in friendly-fire incidents in which their troops have been killed by U.S. or other forces. Harbin, the Air Force officer, said the ROVER system can prevent incidents such as one in which a U.S. pilot mistakenly fired on a British convoy in Afghanistan, killing one British soldier. Other friendly-fire incidents include four Canadians being killed in 2002 and one Canadian killed last September. The Air Force has loaned 12 ROVER systems to British troops.

Iran to hit U.S. interests if attacked

By NASSER KARIMI, Associated Press Writer Iran's supreme leader said Thursday that if the United States were to attack Iran, the country would respond by striking U.S. interests all over the world — the latest sharp exchange in an escalating standoff between the two countries. The comments by Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came on the same day that another top official, Tehran's ambassador to the United Nations, Javad Zarif, warned in a column in The New York Times that efforts to isolate Iran would backfire on the United States, increasing sectarian tensions in the volatile Middle East, including Iraq. The United States is reaping "the expected bitter fruits of its ill-conceived adventurism," he said. "But rather than face these unpleasant facts, the United States administration is trying to sell an escalated version of the same failed policy. It does this by trying to make Iran its scapegoat and fabricating evidence of Iranian activities in Iraq," he said. The United States and Iran have been in an increasingly tense standoff over Tehran's nuclear program. The tensions have worsened recently because of U.S. allegations of Iranian influence in Iraq. The United States has denied it has any plans to strike Iran militarily but has sent an additional aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf in what U.S. officials call an effort to show strength in the face of rising Iranian regional influence. Speaking to a gathering of air force commanders, Khamenei said: "The enemy knows well that any invasion would be followed by a comprehensive reaction to the invaders and their interests all over the world." In another sign of the tensions, Iran's intelligence minister also said the government had detected a network of U.S and Israeli spies, and had detained a second group of people who planned to go abroad for espionage training, state television reported. It gave few details. The allegation comes just a few days after an Iranian diplomat was detained in Baghdad in an incident that Iran blamed on U.S. forces. The Americans have denied involvement in the diplomat's detention. Iranian leaders often speak of a crushing response to any U.S. attack. While the remarks are seen as an attempt to drum up national support, Iran's position on Iraq and its nuclear program has provoked harsher international and especially U.S. pressure in recent months. President Bush has ordered American troops to act against Iranians suspected of being involved in the Iraqi insurgency in addition to deploying the second carrier. The U.N. Security Council has imposed sanctions because of Iran's refusal to cease uranium enrichment, and is due to consider strengthening later this month. "Some people say that the U.S. president is not prone to calculating the consequences of his actions," Khamenei said in remarks broadcast on state television, "but it is possible to bring this kind of person to wisdom." "U.S. policymakers and analysts know that the Iranian nation would not let an invasion go without a response," Khamenei added. Last week, a publication called Sobh-e Sadegh, the official publication of Iran's elite and hard-line Revolutionary Guards, also warned against American attacks, pointing out that because the U.S. has large numbers of troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, central Asia and Europe, it would be easy to kidnap Americans in retaliation. In his talk Thursday, Khamenei also addressed rumors about his health — a subject that is rarely discussed openly in Iran. Last month, there was speculation his health had deteriorated seriously. "Enemies of the Islamic system fabricated various rumors about death and health to demoralize the Iranian nation, but they did not know that they are not dealing with only one person in Iran. They are facing a nation," Khamenei said.

New African Command takes aim at budding terrorist activity

By Charlie Coon, Stars and Stripes Mideast edition, Wednesday, February 7, 2007 Ethiopian soldiers chant and pump their Kalashnikov rifles following a day of training in the field with U.S. military instructors in December. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Tuesday the Pentagon will set up a new command, to be known as Africa Command, to oversee its operations there. STUTTGART, Germany — The U.S. military’s approach toward African nations has been touted as proactive: “Helping people to help themselves” is one of its mantras. U.S. and African troops train together, medics treat sick people and engineers dig wells for fresh water. But while trying to win friends and influence people, the threat of terrorism also is being targeted by the military and its latest endeavor, the establishment of an African Command. “The groups we are most worried about … are the ones who have the ability to influence nations, plural,” said Rear Adm. Richard K. Gallagher, director of the U.S. European Command’s Plans and Operations Center. “Groups,” he said, “that threaten us, and not just the United States, but the European continent, the African continent and elsewhere.” Groups like the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, or GSPC, Gallagher said, has sworn allegiance to al-Qaida and wishes to create an Islamist state in Algeria and across northern Africa, much like the Islamic caliphate of centuries past. The GSPC is thought to have kidnapped 32 European hostages in the Saharan desert in 2003, and held them for months demanding a multimillion-dollar ransom. Another group, the Armed Islamic Group, or GIA, killed thousands of civilians in Algeria in the 1990s.The groups might be small for now, Gallagher said, but can be deadly. “These are not local groups that are unhappy with the local situation in a particular country,” Gallagher said. “When I’m talking about transnational characters, these are groups that freely flow their people across the spectrum.” The terrorism climate in the northern half of Africa, which is highly Muslim, is different from that in pre-9/11 Afghanistan, according to Nick Pratt, a retired Marine colonel who worked for the CIA, and who teaches about terrorism at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Garmisch, Germany. “You don’t have the permissive environment that you had in Afghanistan, where the Taliban was aiding and abetting al-Qaida,” Pratt said. “You’re not going into a country that’s a basket case already, that’s had problems, and going in there and doing triage.“In the Pan Sahel (sub-Sahara), you have countries that are unwitting. They’re not doing it intentionally, and it’s where they (terrorist groups) might have training going on.” Factors that make Africa ripe for terrorist activity, Gallagher said, include huge, ungoverned spaces where people can roam freely, and large numbers of restless young people who are vulnerable to anti-Western propaganda. The fight against terrorist organizations will be a long one, Gallagher said. The military, he said, is trying to make African nations more able to crack down on transnational extremists. “It’s to enable local governments to deny that ability,” he said, “and to decrease the environment that allows them to do their business and to do their evil deeds.”

Ties between predominantly Shiite Iran and Hezbollah alarm government

By SCHEHEREZADE FARAMARZI- Associated Press SAKSAKIYEH, LEBANON — The Iranian engineer peered through a huge hole in the bridge, hit during an Israeli aerial bombardment of Lebanon's coastal highway, and saw that a concrete column had shifted slightly. "We have to bring down the entire structure and build from scratch," said Hussam Khoshnevis, who was sent by his president, Mahmoud Ahmadinjad, to oversee Iran's extensive reconstruction program in Lebanon following last summer's devastating 34-day war between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. The bridge outside the southern village of Saksakiyeh is one of 27 Iran is repairing. Iran is one of many foreign nations helping Lebanon recover from war damage. But the close ties between the predominantly Shiite Muslim country and Hezbollah, the militant Shiite political movement whose name means "Party of God," has alarmed the U.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora and his allies. Lebanese complain that their country has become the latest battlefield in Washington's confrontation with Tehran. The government and its allies argue that Tehran engineered the current crisis that has taken the country to the brink of civil war, with deadly street clashes between Hezbollah supporters and their rivals. Reports from Tehran say Iranian leaders are unhappy that the protests got out of control and have asked Hezbollah to cool the situation. Iran watchers say the Islamic Republic's political influence is backed up by the biggest donation it has made to Hezbollah — an estimated $1.2 billion in 2006, compared with under $100 million in a typical year. Similarly, the war has drawn Saniora's government dramatically closer to the United States. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Beirut and called Saniora an ally. Hezbollah and Iran believe — as do many Lebanese — that Saniora's government makes its decisions in consultation with U.S. Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman, who visits pro-government leaders almost daily. Late last month, the United States announced $770 million in new aid, more than three times the Bush administration's previous commitment and also triple what Iran has pledged. But Iran has already gained gratitude from Shiites, Lebanon's largest sect, not least for the $300 million in cash that Hezbollah paid to families who lost homes in Israel's bombardment, and Khoshnevis says Iran will go on spending whatever it takes to repair the war damage. "The Zionist enemy destroys, and Iran's Islamic Republic builds," says a banner near bombed buildings in a Shiite-populated suburb of the capital, Beirut. Similar banners are seen in wrecked Shiite villages. Unwelcome influence Novelist and anthropologist Iman Humaydan, a member of the Druse sect, says she fears that Tehran's influence could replace Lebanon's cosmopolitan culture with conservative Islam. "The Iranian regime is based on religion. America ... doesn't scare me as much," Humaydan said. "America hasn't set up institutions in Lebanon that would affect the fabric of society." Iran's generosity does have a sectarian side — one aim is to strengthen Lebanon's downtrodden Shiite community. But it may be reluctant to push Islamic influence too far, having learned from past failed efforts by Hezbollah how difficult it would be to impose Islamic laws on a country with a variety of faiths and a history of tolerance.

US Spies File A Dissent On Al Qaeda

BY ELI LAKE - Staff Reporter of the NY Sun URL: http://www.nysun.com/article/48000 WASHINGTON — In a division reminiscent of the intelligence debates before the Iraq war, America's war fighters and satellite imagery experts have issued a formal dissent on one of the National Intelligence Estimate's most important judgments. Disputing the view that Al Qaeda plays only a small role in the overall Sunni insurgency in Iraq, four of America's 16 intelligence agencies have obliged the Directorate of National Intelligence to provide a formal dissent to the 90-page classified Iraq assessment issued last week. Those agencies include the Treasury Department's Office of Intelligence and Analysis, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, and the military intelligence bureaus of the Army and Marines. According to two sources familiar with the addendum, the dissenters argue that the Baathist wing of the umbrella Sunni terrorist group has ceded authority to Abu Ayoub al-Masri, the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq who replaced Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The majority view, endorsed by the CIA, the National Security Agency, the State Department, and others, holds that a majority of the Sunni insurgency is still comprised of Baathists and Sunni nationalists.In some ways, the majority view bolsters the argument that Iraq is not a central front in the war on Al Qaeda, making it politically easier to favor a precipitous withdrawal of American forces from the country. In this respect, it undermines President Bush's own recent arguments for his war strategy. At issue in the bureaucratic fight is the methodology for counting Al Qaeda fighters. "They employed a methodology by looking at the fighter's background," an intelligence analyst familiar with the debate told The New York Sun. "The CIA looked at whether the fighters were recruited through religious means, or did they go to a training camp." The dissenting faction based its assessment in part on its reading of Iraq's Mujahideen Shura Council, an umbrella group that at first encompassed Al Qaeda. "The Mujahideen Shura Council is now for all intents and purposes an arm of Al Qaeda," another American intelligence analyst said yesterday. The council coordinates military activities for the Islamic State of Iraq, a political arm of the jihadists in Iraq unveiled in October that has tried to establish social services networks in the style of Hamas and Hezbollah. The view of the dissenters is close, according to the two analysts, to an August 2006 assessment from the Marine colonel in charge of intelligence in Anbar province, Peter Devlin. The assessment, first reported by the Washington Post on September 11, 2006, painted a grim picture of lawlessness in the Sunni insurgent hotbed. It also warned that America could already have lost the war in Anbar. Part of Colonel Devlin's assessment also said Al Qaeda in Iraq had filled the void left by the collapse of the local government. "Despite the success of the December elections, nearly all government institutions from the village to provincial levels have disintegrated or have been thoroughly corrupted and infiltrated by Al Qaeda in Iraq," the Post quoted from the assessment in a subsequent story published on November 28, 2006. The unclassified version of the National Intelligence Estimate, released Friday, does not mention the dissent on Al Qaeda. It does, however, downplay the group's role in comparison to Colonel Devlin's August assessment. It says, "Extremists — most notably the Sunni jihadist group al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI) and Shia oppositionist Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM) — continue to act as very effective accelerators for what has become a self-sustaining inter-sectarian struggle between Shia and Sunnis." Another point of contention in the debate over the new intelligence estimate is the role Iran played in working with Sunni jihadist groups. The New York Sun reported on January 3 that captured documents found on a senior leader of Iran's Quds Force in December showed Iran's intention to bolster support for Ansar al-Sunna, a Kurdish Sunni group that had criticized Zarqawi but more recently has publicly embraced Al Qaeda's global leadership. The classified intelligence estimate, according to one intelligence analyst, neither endorses nor denies Iran's role in supporting Sunni groups in Iraq. "They took the same position as the Baker-Hamilton Commission," the analyst said, referring to the cochairmen of the congressionally mandated Iraq Study Group, James Baker and Lee Hamilton. That study group wrote, "There are also reports that Iran has supplied improvised explosive devices to groups — including Sunni Arab insurgents — that attack U.S. forces," acknowledging the allegation of Iranian support for Sunnis without endorsing its veracity. The unclassified National Intelligence Estimate says foreign actors play a role in influencing events in Iraq but are not a "major driver of violence."

Iranians seized in attack on Hamas enclave

Abraham Rabinovich - The Australian February 03, 2007 JERUSALEM: Seven Iranian weapons experts were seized yesterday in a raid by Fatah-affiliated security forces on the Islamic University, a Hamas stronghold in Gaza City. Amid an escalation in the confrontation between Hamas and Fatah Palestinian factions, an eighth Iranian was reported to have committed suicide rather than be taken prisoner. Sources close to President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah said the Iranians included intelligence and chemical experts and a senior military officer. The Israeli news site Y-Net quoted a Palestinian source as saying the officer was a general. Although Hamas and Islamic Jihad are known to have sent agents to Iran for training, this is the first report of Iranian personnel in the Palestinian territories. The group that carried out the raid - the Palestine Security Force, which is loyal to Mr Abbas - has not released names or photographs of the Iranians, raising questions among Palestinian news organisations about the authenticity of the claim. Israel has long claimed members of the Iranian Republican Guard are posted in Lebanon to train Hezbollah fighters. Violence between Hamas and Fatah has claimed almost 70 lives and left hundreds wounded since last month. Violence that ended a shaky three-day ceasefire broke out on Thursday afternoon when Hamas gunmen ambushed a convoy of trucks entering the Gaza Strip from the Egyptian border. Hamas claimed the convoy was carrying weapons for Mr Abbas's Presidential Guard, but Fatah spokesmen insisted the trucks contained only non-lethal equipment. Five members of the Presidential Guard were killed in the attack, along with a sixth Palestinian, reportedly an infant. Hamas captured two of the trucks but has not yet revealed their contents. The ambush touched off a string of gunbattles. Hamas fighters attacked a military intelligence post with rockets, wounding 10 members of the security forces. Hamas unleashed mortars and small-arms fire at the surrounds of Mr Abbas's official Gaza residence - he was not there - and the nearby headquarters of the security forces. Residents fled in panic. Some drivers left cars idling while they took shelter. Although Hamas got the better of the fighting during the day, Fatah-affiliated forces struck back in force close to midnight when hundreds of fighters attacked the Islamic University, which Fatah forces have not assaulted before. In addition to the Iranian personnel, the attackers claim to have captured about 1400 Kalashnikov rifles, as well as anti-tank missiles and rockets. They also reported finding bodies in refrigerators, but it was unclear whose bodies they were. The raid on the university, which has become almost an armed camp for Hamas, was a morale booster for Fatah in the Gaza Strip, where Hamas enjoys greater popular support and has outperformed rival factions in street confrontations. There have been indications that Fatah is seeking to amass sufficient strength for a head-on confrontation with Hamas and other militant groups. Hamas claims the US and Israel are behind the arming of forces loyal to Mr Abbas.

Brother-in-law of Bin Laden killed

Bahrain Times: Published: 1st February 2007 ANTANANARIVO: Gunmen shot dead a brother-in-law of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a raid on his home in Madagascar.Malek Khalifa told Dubai-based Al Arabiya television that the aim of the killers appeared to have been to rob his brother, Jamal Khalifa, who mined and traded in precious stones.Malek said a gang of 20 to 30 gunmen broke into his brother's bedroom, shot him dead "in cold blood" and stole his belongings. Al Arabiya said the businessman was staying at a precious stones mine he owns in Madagascar when he was killed early yesterday. "We still don't have a complete picture of the incident," Malek said. "I don't think it was politically motivated," he added.A police official in Madagascar said the attack took place in Tulear, about 650km southwest of the capital Antananarivo. He said there were 10 attackers who stole a computer and a briefcase in the assault at Jamal's house, named in the police report as Jamal Hamed. The Philippine Daily Inquirer, in what it said was the last interview given by the leader of the Abu Sayyaf group before his death, quoted Khaddafy Janjalani as saying that his group had received funds from two men close to Bin Laden, identifying one of them as Jamal Khalifa.But CNN reported that Jamal called reports he had funded the Abu Sayyaf group in return for volunteers to fight in Afghanistan "completely false"."I have never given any money to any group or persons that include the Abu Sayyaf," CNN quoted Jamal as writing in an e-mail.Malek also denied his brother was involved in political activity, and said that apart from family ties, Jamal had no links to Bin Laden.A Saudi foreign ministry source said Riyadh had contacted authorities in Madagascar through its embassy in Tanzania to find out the circumstances of the killing. The source did not say Khalifa was related by marriage to Bin Laden, but said the embassy in Tanzania was in contact with the victim's family to facilitate the repatriation of his body. The US named Jamal as an "unindicted co-conspirator" in the 1993 World Trade Centre bombing in New York, and arrested him the following year on a visa violation in San Francisco. But he was deported without standing trial.