how we are winning in baghdad

WINNING BAGHDAD http://www.nypost.com/seven/11302007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/winning_baghdad_37556.htm?page=0 By RALPH PETERS November 30, 2007 -- THE US Army's has had a remarkably successful year in Baghdad, turning around its slice of the long troubled Dura neighborhood. In an e-interview earlier this week, the unit's commander, Lt. Col. Jim Crider, explained how his troops did it. Question: Congratulations on the superb work "Quarter Cav" has done for us all - Iraqis and Americans. When you arrived in Iraq this time around, did you think you'd be able to make such progress? Lt. Col. Crider: Our initial experiences upon arrival in March '07 were very discouraging. The enemy controlled the ground - the people - in southwest Baghdad. I saw more combat in the first six weeks than in the entire year of Operation Iraqi Freedom I. We realized that we'd never kill or capture every enemy, so our goal was to change the conditions on the ground that allowed the insurgency to flourish. Three key factors contributed to our success: A sufficient number of troops to deny the enemy a sanctuary. A focus on security where the people live. The restoration of essential services - it was a revelation that the people viewed us as the government, so when there was no electricity, garbage pick-up, etc., it was our fault in their eyes. Q: Which achievements do you see as solid? What has to happen next? A: Our personal relationships with the Iraqi people are solid. They love American soldiers. This is a significant achievement - it's important that we don't let them down. Now the Iraqi Government has to build on the security in the area by actively recruiting and training police who reflect the neighborhoods they're supposed to protect. The government also has to create real jobs - careers. Right now, we employ people in temporary jobs for which many are over-qualified. It can't last. The Sunnis must get a seat at the political table, as well. Hope for the future, money in their pockets, security . . . nothing unusual. Q: What are the keys to working with Iraqis? A: The key is to focus on building a relationship. Our squadron didn't hold every Iraqi responsible if a roadside bomb went off. We didn't wait for good behavior before helping with essential services - we just did it and positive behavior followed. Second, we kept our promises. If we said it was going to happen, it did. Third, our actions were always justified and proportional. If we detained someone, he was bad - and the people knew it. Q: You've gotten to know our enemies pretty well - what are their strengths and weaknesses? A: Initially, the enemy's greatest strength was the ability to hide in plain sight - by co-opting or intimidating the people. We turned the tables. People in our area are now pointing out insurgents who did their deeds one or two years ago. They can hide from us, but not from their neighbors. The enemy's greatest remaining strength is the central government's slow pace, measured against the impending US troop draw-down. If the people get discouraged, they'll turn elsewhere. Q: This has been a learn-as-you-go fight. Can you identify three key counterinsurgency decisions you and your subordinates made this past year? A: We've been on the ground 24/7 in the neighborhoods, not just holed up in an outpost. We also have an ongoing operation, Close Encounters, in which platoon leaders and NCOs literally go into living rooms and kitchens to sit down with people and get to know them, house by house. We learned about their concerns and broke down misconceptions about American soldiers. We not only found people who were willing to talk about the insurgents in their neighborhood, we also found doctors, businessmen and others with the skills essential to rebuild the area. We aggressively emplaced walls to restrict the insurgents' ability to move, while providing physical protection to vulnerable people on the outskirts of dangerous areas. If you'll allow me a fourth - we handed out small business grants. This was huge. It quickly produced tangible results. People here believe what they see. If they see businesses open, full streets and US soldiers on patrol, then it must be normal and safe. Sorry - there's a fifth, as well: We embraced the Sunni turn against the insurgents. Q: As you and your men face your final months in Iraq, what remains undone? What still worries you? A: Building a trained and credible Iraqi police force is in the works, but undone. This will undoubtedly be a primary mission over our remaining time in Iraq. Worry? We've achieved a remarkable accomplishment in Iraq. The people there want it to work. Now the Iraqi government must grab the reins. Q: Any single incident that sticks in your mind from this tour of duty? A: I put it in a dispatch to our families last April. We often hand out soccer balls and backpacks filled with paper, crayons and so forth. A child came up to one of our B Troop NCOs and slipped him a handwritten note in English: Dear Sir, We ask your help and support us. We want to tell you there is no electricity in this neighborhood about six months ago and we suffer a lot. People here scare to go to al Dura station and ask there and there is no direction just you. Will you make us a favor it to help the citizens of this neighborhood. With appreciation . . . The boy slipped back into the crowd of other kids. In my own personal interaction with the people here, I do find that they really believe we can do anything." Lt. Col. Crider and his Cav troopers return to Ft. Riley, Kan., in May 2008.

us combat deaths down 50 percent this month

Iraq Combat Deaths Down 50 Percent in November http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200711/NAT20071129b.html By Kevin Mooney CNSNews.com Staff Writer November 29, 2007(CNSNews.com) - Combat-related casualties for U.S. military personnel in Iraq have been reduced by half in the first 28 days of November compared to the same timeframe for last year, a Cybercast News Service analysis of Pentagon reports shows. There have been 24 combat-related deaths in Iraq reported in the current month thus far in comparison with the 48 combat-related deaths reported in the first 28 days of November last year. This reflects a 50 percent drop. Total casualties, which include non-combat deaths, are down about 45 percent from where they were in the same 28-day period a year ago. There have been 29 casualties reported in Iraq so far this month versus 53 causalities for the same period in 2006.There is often a delay between the time a casualty occurs and when the Defense Department releases its final casualty numbers. Nevertheless, a Cybercast News Service analysis shows there has been a consistent decline in the number of U.S. troops killed in Iraq since the 30,000 U.S. troop surge went into effect in June. Although more U.S. troops have been killed in 2007 than in any other previous year, the spike in casualties occurred before the surge went into effect. Recent figures show a correlation between the influx of new troops and declining casualty rates. November marks the sixth consecutive month that military deaths have declined in Iraq. The casualty rate has reached its lowest level since March of 2006.For the full month of September 2006 versus September 2007 the drop in combat-related casualties fell by almost 40 percent, the analysis of Pentagon data shows. There were 41 such casualties in September 2007, down from 57 combat-related casualties for September 2006. However, the decline in the total causality rate for September 2007 was just 5 percent compared to a year ago. The decline in causalities for the full month of October was steeper. In October 2006, the Pentagon reported 96 casualties of which 91 were combat-related, compared with 37 total casualties for October 2007 of which 31 were combat-related. This amounts to almost a 66 percent drop in combat-related casualties in the year-to-year monthly comparison. There are other factors beyond the troop surge that figure into military progress on the ground, Jay Carafano told Cybercast News Service in an interview. Although additional equipment and resources are helpful, U.S. tactics are primarily responsible for the reduction in casualties, said Carafano, a senior research fellow specializing in defense and homeland security at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank."This has less to do with equipment and more to do with the headspace between the eyes and ears," he said. "It's about fighting smarter, and this is what always wins wars. This is about Americans being creative, innovative and brave." Members of Congress from both parties have credited Gen. David Petraeus for employing an effective counter-insurgency strategy - Petraeus is in charge of the coalition forces in Iraq. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), for instance, recently described the decline in casualties as "a positive sign." However, Hoyer remains critical of the Bush administration for its management of the war. Hoyer has also said the stated goal of political reconciliation in Iraq appears beyond reach at the moment. The number of combat-related causalities reported in November has also declined somewhat from combat-related casualties in the prior month. These numbers are down by about 23 percent. However, the number of U.S. troops who died in combat this month versus the number of combat causalities reported this past September has fallen by almost 60 percent, according to the Cybercast News Service analysis.

daily good news about the war in iraq

US public opinion shifts on Iraq ‘surge’ http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/22b3594a-9d47-11dc-af03-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1 US public opinion on military progress in Iraq has improved sharply since the troops “surge” started in February but a majority of Americans still want soldiers brought home, according to a new poll. Some 48 per cent of Americans now believe that the US ­military effort in Iraq is going well, compared with 30 per cent in February, according to the latest poll by the Pew Research Center. But the poll found that the “rosier view of the military situation in Iraq has not translated into increased support for maintaining US forces in Iraq”. Some 54 per cent of Americans want the Pentagon to bring troops home, compared with 53 per cent in February. The improved public perception coincides with the military’s reporting of a significant decline in attacks against it, particularly since June when the five combat brigades that made up the surge had arrived. While 575 US soldiers lost their lives in the first half of 2007, the total since the beginning of July is fewer than 300. The number of Iraqi deaths has also dropped ­significantly, although some critics suggest the data do not take into account violence in the south, where the US does not have a large military presence.The military argues that improved security, which has been helped by local groups opposing insurgents across Iraq, has paved the way for a decrease in US forces, which has just started as part of a winding down of the surge over the next seven months.The Pentagon has not decided whether it will continue to reduce numbers beyond the 130,000 or so troops who will remain after the surge. But the Pew poll shows the improvement in Iraq has not increased the domestic appetite for the war. The number of respondents who believe the US will succeed in Iraq has risen from 47 per cent in February to 48 per cent now. ● About 800 Iraqis left Syria for Baghdad on Tuesday on an Iraqi government-sponsored convoy amid a media ­fanfare as the regime sought to draw attention to improving security at home. During the past month more Iraqis have returned than fled. It is the first time that has happened since the war began in 2003. Baghdad announced that 46,000 refugees returned last month because of improved security following the US troops surge. Syrian immigration sources say 60,000 Iraqis have gone back since October. While the government claimed that improved security was drawing refugees home, many Iraqis said they were returning because they had no more money and their visas had expired.

us and iraq sign long term defense agreements

Iraq Agrees To Long-Term U.S. Presence http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/26/world/printable3539432.shtml (CBS/AP) President Bush on Monday signed a deal setting the foundation for a potential long-term U.S. troop presence in Iraq, with details to be negotiated over matters that have defined the war debate at home - how many U.S. forces will stay in the country, and for how long. The agreement between Mr. Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki confirms that the United States and Iraq will hash out an "enduring" relationship in military, economic and political terms. CBS News' Pete Gow in Baghdad reports the proposals are to offer the U.S. a continued military presence in Iraq, as well as favorable business interests (such as investment opportunities for American companies), in return for guarantees to Iraq's future security. Lieutenant General Douglas Lute told White House reporters the shape and size of any long-term military presence will be determined in negotiations planned for next year. CBS News White House correspondent Peter Maer reports that, according to Lute, today's agreement sets the agenda for those talks, with a completion goal of July 2008, when the U.S. intends to finish withdrawing the five combat brigades sent in 2007 as part of the current troop "surge." "What U.S. troops are doing, how many troops are required to do that, are bases required, which partners will join them - all these things are on the negotiating table," said Lute, President Bush's adviser on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The proposal underlines how the United States and Iraq are exploring what their relationship might look like once the U.S. significantly draws down its troop presence. It comes as a Democratic Congress - unsuccessfully, so far - prods Mr. Bush to withdraw troops faster than he wants. The "declaration of principles" was discussed in a secret meeting of Iraq's Parliament today, Gow reports, and was later signed by President Bush and al-Maliki during a secure video conference Monday morning. Al-Maliki, in a televised address, said his government would ask the United Nations to renew the mandate for the multinational force for one final time with its authorization to end in 2008. The U.S.-Iraq agreement will replace the present U.N. mandate regulating the presence of the U.S.-led forces in Iraq. Al-Maliki said the agreement provides for U.S. support for the "democratic regime in Iraq against domestic and external dangers." It also would help the Iraqi government thwart any attempt to suspend or repeal a constitution drafted with U.S. help and adopted in a nationwide vote in 2005. That appeared to be a reference to any attempt to remove the government by violence or in a coup. Al-Maliki said the renewal of the multinational forces' mandate was conditional on the repeal of what he called restrictions on Iraqi sovereignty introduced in 1990 by the U.N. Security Council to punish Iraq for invading neighboring Kuwait. The new agreement would not signal an end to the U.S. mission here. But it could change the rules under which U.S. soldiers operate and give the Iraqis a greater role in determining their mission. Two senior Iraqi officials familiar with the issue say Iraq's government will embrace a long-term U.S. troop presence in return for U.S. security guarantees as part of a strategic partnership. The two officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the subject is sensitive, said U.S. military and diplomatic representatives appeared generally favorable, subject to negotiations on the details, which include preferential treatment for American investments. Preferential treatment for U.S. investors could provide a huge windfall if Iraq can achieve enough stability to exploit its vast oil resources. Such a deal would also enable the United States to maintain leverage against Iranian expansion at a time of growing fears about Tehran's nuclear aspirations. The framework Mr. Bush approved outlines broad principles, such as that both countries will support Iraq's economic institutions, and help its government train Iraqi security forces to provide stability for all Iraqis. Lute said "all major national leaders of the existing Iraqi government" have committed to it. "The basic message here should be clear: Iraq is increasingly able to stand on its own; that's very good news, but it won't have to stand alone," said Lute, who rarely holds televised briefings. He said it is too soon to tell what the "shape and size" of the U.S. military commitment will look like, including military bases. The Iraqi officials said that under the proposed formula, Iraq would get full responsibility for internal security and U.S. troops would relocate to bases outside the cities. Iraqi officials foresee a long-term presence of about 50,000 U.S. troops, down from the current figure of more than 160,000.

More good news from baghdad..

Reopening of looted museum signals a calmer Baghdad http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article2937102.ece UK Times Newspaper: NEARLY five years after it was ransacked by hordes of looters in the wake of Saddam Hussein’s overthrow, the Iraq museum in Baghdad is about to open its doors again. The museum, famous for priceless antiquities representing the world’s earliest civilisation, is scheduled to open next month, according to its acting director, Amira Emiran. Visits will be confined to just two galleries on the ground floor containing Assyrian and Islamic treasures that are too large and heavy to be easily removed. The remaining 16 galleries will remain empty and closed and security will be tight. Nevertheless, Iraqi and American officials are keen to portray the opening as a sign that security in Baghdad has improved after the chaos of the past few years. Emiran announced the opening at a gathering of experts at the United Nations educational, scientific and cultural organisation (Unesco) in Paris to discuss measures to save Iraq’s antiquities from looting and destruction, according to The Art Newspaper. A Unesco official said: “Dr Emiran announced that the museum would be opening in December. But even if she says it is going to open, this has to be treated with some circumspection. The situation is so volatile.” The Assyrian Hall has monumental sculptures, including stone panels from the royal palace at Khorsabad and two winged bulls. The other large gallery that is opening, the Islamic Hall, has the eighth century mihrab from the Al-Mansur mosque in Baghdad. It is also hoped to display 10 monumental Parthian sculptures from Hatra in the courtyard which links the two galleries and through which visitors will pass. The decision was welcomed by Matthew Bogdanos, a colonel in the US Marine Corps reserves, who investigated the theft and destruction of thousands of artefacts from the museum and from thousands of Iraq’s poorly protected historic sites where looting has been conducted “on an industrial scale” since the war. Bogdanos, a New York prosecutor, said: “I don’t know if there is any such thing as a right or wrong moment to open the museum. But great things are won by great risk and the museum should open and it should stay open. If it means doubling security, then double security.” The ransacking of the museum in April 2003 in the aftermath of the US invasion provoked worldwide outrage. American soldiers were criticised for watching as looters, taking advantage of the Iraqi government’s collapse, plundered the building. “It was as if a hurricane had hit,” said Donny George, the museum director at the time, describing his return to the museum after it had been plundered. “What the looters could not take, they smashed.” Some 15,000 items vanished. In time, some priceless objects were recovered, including the 5,200-year-old sacred vase of Warka, the world’s oldest-known carved-stone ritual vessel, which was returned in the back of a car. Bogdanos believes the smuggling of antiquities from Iraq helped to fund the insurgency. He recalled that in one raid in 2005 in Anbar province, northwest of Baghdad, marines captured a group of insurgents in an underground bunker and found arms and a chest of more than 30 stolen museum items. About 10,000 pieces remain missing despite a worldwide hunt; they include the 8BC ivory plaque of a lioness attacking a Nubian, which is inlaid with lapis and carnelian and overlaid with gold. The museum was founded by Gertrude Bell, the legendary British archaeologist and explorer, in 1923. It was considered one of the finest in the Middle East but was rarely open to the public during most of the last 20 years of Saddam Hussein’s rule.

How we are winning the war in Iraq

Ralph Peters has been spot on with his analysis of the Middle East for three years now. IRAQ: WHAT WENT RIGHT http://www.nypost.com/seven/11212007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/iraq__what_went_right_407604.htm By RALPH PETERS New York Post November 21, 2007 -- THE situation in Iraq has im proved so rapidly that Democrats now shun the topic as thoroughly as they shun our troops when the cameras aren't around. Yes, Iraq could still slip back into reverse gear. And no, we're not going to get a perfect outcome. But the positive indicators are now so strong that the left's defeatist lies are losing traction among the American people. Attacks of every kind are down by at least half - in some cases by more than three-quarters. A wounded country's struggling back to health. And our mortal enemies, al Qaeda's terrorists, have suffered a defeat from which they may never fully recover: They've lost street cred. Our dead and wounded have not bled in vain. What happened? How did this startling turnabout come to pass? Why does the good news continue to compound? Some of the reasons are widely known, but others have been missed. Here are the "big five" reasons for the shift from near-failure to growing success: We didn't quit: Even as some of us began to suspect that Iraqi society was hopelessly sick, our troops stood to and did their duty bravely. The tenacity of our soldiers and Marines in the face of mortal enemies in Iraq and blithe traitors at home is the No. 1 reason why Iraq has turned around. Without their valor and sacrifice, nothing else would've mattered. Key leaders were courageous, too - men such as now-Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno. Big Ray was pilloried in our media for being too warlike, too aggressive and just too damned tough on our enemies. Well, the Ray Odiernos, not the hearts-and-minds crowd, held the line against evil. Only by hammering our enemies year after year were we able to convince them that we couldn't - and wouldn't - be beaten. If the press wronged any single man or woman in uniform, it was Odierno - thank God he was promoted and stayed in the fight. Gen. David Petraeus took command: Petraeus brought three vital qualities to our effort: He wants to win, not just keep the lid on the pot; he never stops learning and adapting, and he provides top-cover for innovative subordinates. By late 2006, mid-level commanders were already seizing opportunities to draw former enemies into an alliance against al Qaeda. Petraeus saw the potential for a strategic shift. He ignored the naysayers and supported what worked. Oh, and under Petraeus our troops have been relentless in their pursuit of our enemies. Contrary to the myths of the left, peace can only be built over the corpses of evil men. The surge: While the increase in troop numbers was important, allowing us to consolidate gains in neighborhoods we'd rid of terrorists and insurgents, the psychological effect of the surge was crucial. Pre-surge, our enemies were convinced they were winning - they monitored our media, which assured them that America would quit. Sorry, Muqtada - that's what you get for believing The New York Times. The message sent by the surge was that we not only wouldn't quit, but also were upping the ante. It stunned our enemies - while giving Sunni Arabs disenchanted with al Qaeda the confidence to flip to our side without fear of abandonment. Fanatical enemies: We lucked out when al Qaeda declared Iraq the central front in its war against civilization. Our monstrous foes alienated their local allies so utterly that al Qaeda in Iraq is now largely a spent force - the hunted, not the hunters. The terrorists have suffered a strategic humiliation. Religious fanatics always overdo their savagery - but you can't predict the alienation time-line. Al Qaeda's blood-thirst accelerated the process, helping us immensely. The Iraqis are sick of bloodshed and destruction: This is the least-recognized factor - but it's critical. We still don't fully understand the mechanics of black-to-white mood shifts in populations, but such transitions determine strategic outcomes. What we do know is that, when tyrannical regimes collapse in artificial states such as Iraq (or the former Yugoslavia), a lot of pent-up grudges play out violently. People seem to need to get suppressed hatreds out of their systems. The peace-through-exhaustion mood swing happened abruptly in Iraq. Suddenly, the people have had their fill of gunmen and gangsters who claim to be their defenders. Heads-down passivity has morphed into active resistance to the terrorists and militias. We're all sober now, Americans and Iraqis. And peace is built on sobriety, not passion. As Thanksgiving approaches, consider a vignette from Baghdad: As part of its campaign to eliminate Iraq's Christian communities, al Qaeda in 2004 bombed St. John's Christian church in Doura, in the city's southern badlands. By last spring, local services had stopped completely. Our Army's 2nd Battalion of the 12th Infantry stepped up. Under Lt. Col. Stephen Michael (a Newark native), our soldiers methodically cleaned up Doura - no easy or painless task - and aided the reconstruction of the church. Last week, a grateful congregation returned for a service that was, literally, a resurrection. Fifteen local Muslim sheikhs attended the Mass to support their Christian neighbors. Could there be a more hopeful symbol? Those long-suffering Iraqi Christians will celebrate Christmas in their neighborhood church this year. "Peace on earth" will mean more to them than mere words in a carol. As for the grunts of 2-12 Infantry who made it all possible, their motto is "Ducti Amore Patria," or "Having been led by love of country."

First the NY Times, now the UN sees progress in Iraq

U.N. official says Iraq showing progress http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Emerging_Threats/Briefing/2007/11/19/un_official_says_iraq_showing_progress/7541/ Published: Nov. 19, 2007 at 5:31 PM UNITED NATIONS, Nov. 19 (United Press International) -- A top U.N. official reported to the U.N. Security Council Monday that recent developments in Iraq have opened an opportunity for progress. U.N. Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe briefed the U.N. Security Council that sectarian tensions are still problematic in Iraq but that recent trends including recently released figures that show September having the lowest number of causalities in 2006, are reason to believe that there is an opportunity for progress. During the briefing Monday Pascoe told council members that achieving a broad national reconciliation has become a possibility as a result of the Mahdi Army cease-fire, the Sunni insurgent alliance against al-Qaida, and the pact reached by the Sadrists among other positive signs. Pascoe pushed for progress on Iraqi constitutional review legislation on the oil and de-Baathification as part of a reconciliation process. "As a result of actions in Al Anbar province by the Multinational Force-Iraq and the Iraqi National Army, the provincial councils of Al Anbar and Diyala had been enabled to hold regular meetings that had led to restoring services and developing the economy," Pascoe said in a statement. "Today, the landscape of Al Anbar was dramatically different. The 2007 surge had given communities the confidence to help defeat extremists, and security measures benefiting the population had made terrorist attacks more difficult." Pascoe said that the primary challenge was to "link those positive developments in the provinces to the progress in the central Government in Baghdad. The support of the central Government to the provinces was also needed to maintain hard won security by providing increases in locally generated police," the release said.

iraqi sects unite to battle al qaeda

Sunnis and Shiites work together at the local level to protect their neighborhoods from insurgents and militias. By Doug Smith and Saif RasheedLos Angeles Times Staff Writers November 19, 2007 QARGHULIA, Iraq — Despite persistent sectarian tensions in the Iraqi government, war-weary Sunnis and Shiites are joining hands at the local level to protect their communities from militants on both sides, U.S. military officials say. In the last two months, a U.S.-backed policing movement called Concerned Citizens, launched last year in Sunni-dominated Anbar province under the banner of the Awakening movement, has spread rapidly into the mixed Iraqi heartland.Of the nearly 70,000 Iraqi men in the Awakening movement, started by Sunni Muslim sheiks who turned their followers against Al Qaeda in Iraq, there are now more in Baghdad and its environs than anywhere else, and a growing number of those are Shiite Muslims.Commanders in the field think they have tapped into a genuine public expression of reconciliation that has outpaced the elected government's progress on mending the sectarian rift. "What you find is these people have lived together for decades with no problem until the terrorists arrived and tried to instigate the problem," said Lt. Col. Valery Keaveny, commander of the 3rd Battalion, 509th Airborne unit in the Iskandariya area south of Baghdad. "So they are perfectly willing to work together to keep the terrorists out."As late as this summer, there were no Shiites in the community policing groups. Today, there are about 15,000 in 24 all-Shiite groups and 18 mixed groups, senior U.S. military officials say. More are joining daily. Here in Qarghulia, a rural community east of Baghdad, the results are palpable. Killings are down dramatically and public confidence is reviving. "Sunnis-Shiites, no problem," said Obede Ali Hussein, 22, who stood at a checkpoint built by the U.S. Army along the Diyala River. "We want to protect our neighborhood." For commanders in areas where Sunni-Shiite warring had brought normal life to a standstill, the unexpected flowering of sectarian cooperation has proved a boon. "I couldn't do it without them," said Capt. Troy Thomas, whose 1st Cavalry unit is responsible for securing the Qarghulia area. Thomas said 42 of the 49 traffic checkpoints in his area are manned by local groups, including Sunnis and Shiites. He said they both extend his reach and perform with a sensitivity that no U.S. soldier could match. "They grew up in the area," Thomas said. "They know who should be there and who shouldn't."At his checkpoint, Ali Hussein eyed a steady stream of cars, farm trucks and motor scooters weaving down the rural Diyala River road toward the main north-south highway. "Nobody could drive through the street six weeks ago," he said. "The street was empty." Before this year's troop buildup, U.S. soldiers seldom ventured into Qarghulia. The area was patrolled by two Baghdad-based companies, or about 160 men, said Col. Wayne Grigsby, commander of the 3rd Infantry Division's 3rd Heavy Brigade Combat Team. National police had little presence there, either, and when they did show up, were mistrusted by the populace. In this lawless climate, Al Qaeda in Iraq held sway in the chronically violent Sunni city of Salman Pak, while Shiite militias enforced mafioso-style protection in Qarghulia. In early May, Thomas set up a 90-strong outpost dubbed Patrol Base Assassin in Qarghulia's Four Corners area, a crossroads where the rural population shops in rows of concrete strip malls.When he arrived, about half the shops were shuttered, and those still doing business were paying protection money to the Mahdi Army, a Shiite militia, Thomas said. To restore security in his Vermont-shaped area of 150 square miles, Thomas sought help. National police units would augment his patrols with checkpoints on the busy highway, but he remained exposed along the rural roads to the east and west. He didn't hesitate when the local sheiks, who had heard of the spreading Concerned Citizens movement, approached him. The first group, formed in September, now maintains about a dozen checkpoints along the Diyala River on the area's western edge and patrols back roads. The sheiks, both Sunni and Shiite, selected a Sunni farmer, Abu Ammash, to be the group's leader and filled its ranks with their followers, who came from both sects. Over a recent two-day period, Thomas, a Minnesota-bred martial arts specialist, spent a considerable amount of time in the company of sheiks, who were starting a second Concerned Citizens group to protect his eastern flank.The new group will be headed by Hamed Gitan Khalaf, a Shiite and former sergeant major in the Iraqi army. Gitan said sect plays no part in his command, which will be split almost evenly between Sunni and Shiite. "All of us are hand in hand," he said. The new group had a rocky initiation one morning when a squadron consisting of Thomas' soldiers, Gitan and his retinue of personal guards, a truckload of uniformed national police and a couple of carloads of civic officials descended upon the presumably abandoned house chosen to be its headquarters. They came face to face with a woman in a black hijab surrounded by scruffy children. After an animated debate, Thomas vetoed Gitan's plan to forcibly move the family across the highway to an abandoned industrial building."What I need you to do is find a legitimate place," he told Gitan. "I know they're pretty much squatting here, but we're not going to be like Jaish al Mahdi" -- the Mahdi Army. Later that day, the scene was repeated with a better plan. The family agreed to a payment and a promise of an equivalent house. Next, Thomas brought all of Gitan's entourage behind the concrete walls of his base for screening -- retinal scans and digital fingerprinting -- and issued them badges and the sand-colored T-shirts of the Concerned Citizens. "I don't want an American convoy to come down here and see a bunch of guys with guns and shoot them up," he said. The exact size of the group was yet to be determined. Gitan said he had 1,500 volunteers, most of them unemployed. Thomas thought he needed only a dozen more checkpoints, enough to pay only a tenth of them.Like other leaders, Gitan will probably put more men on the job and spread the money thinner to get the maximum number of youths employed.Several guards interviewed by The Times said they were making between $100 and $125 a month -- about half the starting wage for a government worker, but real cash for a young man probably living with his family. They emphatically said, however, that money was not their primary motivation. "We are challenging the terrorists and we are ready to give our blood for the country," said Saddam Hadi Rasheed, 19, who was unemployed before joining Gitan's guard.In some cases, Sunni and Shiite guards are being kept at arm's length. But Sunni and Shiite sheiks in Qarghulia said they have consciously put different tribes and sects into the field together to avoid any perception of favoritism. So far, the handshake agreements among the sheiks and their followers have held up. Still, infiltration by either Shiite militias or Al Qaeda in Iraq is a constant threat, as is the possibility of a group evolving into a new militia. "Is this is just another way that someone can position himself to siphon his share in the community and be the godfather?" Col. Martin Stanton, chief of the Multinational Corps' reconciliation unit, said he wondered when he took the assignment.But he said his skepticism has waned. "That hasn't really happened on a large scale," he said. "You've got the will on the ground amongst the Iraqi people to stop fighting." Sitting in his headquarters with a coterie of junior officers and sheiks, Qarghulia Concerned Citizens leader Abu Ammash foresaw big things. He said talks were underway with the Interior Ministry to transform his organization into the local police force for the area. But, based on individual assessments of the men who make up the force, as well as simple math, U.S. commanders expect no more than a third of the Concerned Citizens to transition into the Iraqi security forces, whether the army, national police or local police. The U.S. plan is to dismantle the Concerned Citizens groups once the economic revival that it hopes will be facilitated by their presence begins generating civilian jobs for them.Until then, Ali Hussein, a day laborer before he became a guard, will remain at his post across the Diyala River from the Mahdi Army, ready to face enemy fire.Although none of the new groups rising up against the Mahdi Army has yet been tested in combat, the danger is real. Last week, in a Sunni area just south of Baghdad, five members of a Concerned Citizens group were killed repelling an Al Qaeda in Iraq assault.And one day recently, this graffiti appeared on several metal roll-up doors in a dingy strip mall here: "For the leaders of the Awakening and everybody who is involved with it, Warning: Death." Ali Hussein didn't flinch."Most of their challenge is only with slogans," he said. "They are not courageous enough to face us. Even if they want to come, we are here ready to face them."

southern areas improving just like all the rest of iraq

General: Basra Violence Down 90 Percent http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gkx-3oYeFwuWKCusr2jrojs98w8wD8SULV8O0 By LAUREN FRAYER – 4 hours ago BAGHDAD (Associated Press) — Attacks against British and Iraqi forces have plunged by 90 percent in southern Iraq since London withdrew its troops from the main city of Basra, the commander of British forces there said. The presence of British forces in downtown Basra, Iraq's second-largest city, was the single largest instigator of violence, Maj. Gen. Graham Binns told reporters Thursday on a visit to Baghdad's Green Zone. "We thought, 'If 90 percent of the violence is directed at us, what would happen if we stepped back?'" Binns said. Britain's 5,000 troops moved out of a former Saddam Hussein palace at Basra's heart in early September, setting up a garrison at an airport on the city's edge. Since that pullback, there's been a "remarkable and dramatic drop in attacks," Binns said."The motivation for attacking us was gone, because we're no longer patrolling the streets," he said.Last spring, British troops' daily patrols through central Basra led to "steady toe to toe battles with militias fighting some of the most tactically demanding battles of the war," Binns said. Now British forces rarely enter the city center, an area patrolled only by Iraqis.The majority of attacks now target Iraqi forces, but overall violence now is still a tenth of what it was in May and June."They're increasingly in the frame — more at risk — as they take over more responsibility," Binns said of his Iraqi counterparts. In mid-December, British forces are scheduled to return control of Basra province back to Iraqi officials — officially ending Britain's combat role in Iraq."We've been in that de facto role since we moved out of the palace...but we hope the (December) transfer will symbolize the end of a period many in Basra city perceived as occupation," Binns said.With an overwhelmingly Shiite population, Basra has not seen the level of sectarian violence that has torn Iraq apart since the February 2006 bombing of a Shiite shrine north of Baghdad.But it has seen major fighting between insurgents and coalition troops, as well as between Shiite militias vying for control of the city and its security forces. British officials expected a spike in such "intra-militia violence" after they pulled back from the city's center, and were surprised to find none, Binns said."That's because the Sadrist militia is all powerful here — more powerful than Badr. If Badr was allowed to take on JAM in Basra, they'd lose pretty quickly," he said, using the Arabic acronym for the Mahdi Army, a militia loyal to radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.The Badr Brigade is a rival militia tied to Iraq's largest Shiite party, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council. The two militias have fought open street battles, most recently in the Shiite holy city of Karbala.British officials have been talking with members of al-Sadr's militia since before this past summer, Binns said, in hopes of bringing them into the political process in Basra. He refused to give details of those talks."We may get to the point where the main Sadrist strain will support the Iraqi security forces — that's the goal," Binns said. "But not everyone gets it...because there are those who remain irreconcilable. For them, the offer of money to attack us is still too tempting." Still, Binns said he believes violence is down to a level where it is manageable for Iraqi security forces.Last month, Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced that Britain will halve its remaining troop contingent in Iraq next spring — bringing the number of troops down to 2,500. The scaling back of forces has already begun, and by the year's end Britain will have 4,500 troops based mainly at Basra's airport.British officials have also said they cannot guarantee that any troops will remain in Iraq by the end of 2008. Britain's participation in the 2003 U.S.-led invasion — and the continuing presence of troops in the country four years later — remains deeply unpopular at home. A total of 171 British soldiers have died in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion. The British presence in Iraq peaked with 46,000 troops — Binns among them — during the March 2003 invasion. It was reduced to 18,000 that May, and 8,600 by the end of May 2004. This past May, there were about 5,500 British troops in Iraq.

25 fewer terrorists in iraq today thanks to the USAF

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL1512578820071115?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true Thu Nov 15, 2007 12:45am EST BAGHDAD (Reuters) - U.S. forces backed by aircraft killed 25 suspected insurgents in operations targeting al Qaeda near the Iraqi capital Baghdad, the U.S. military said on Thursday.In a statement, the military said the suspected insurgents were killed during operations late on Tuesday and early on Wednesday west of Tarmiya. It said 21 suspects were detained.The statement said U.S. forces called in aircraft to attack armed men seen acting with "hostile intent" in the area of the operation. One gunman was killed.Ground forces then moved further into the area, where they came under fire. Troops again called in aircraft, killing 24 suspected insurgents.Troops found a weapons cache that included numerous anti-aircraft guns, surface-to-surface missiles, rifles, pistols, grenades, mortar rounds and artillery shells, the statement added.U.S. commanders say they have made substantial gains fighting al Qaeda in Iraq, a militant Sunni Islamist group blamed for most major car bomb attacks in the country.Iraqi police were not immediately available to comment on the Tarmiya operation.

Roadside bomb attacks down in iraq

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071115/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq;_ylt=AmWMxYHlI4N2vMtodsCbMWWs0NUE By LAUREN FRAYER, Associated Press Writer Iran's commitments to stem the flow of weapons and explosives into Iraq "appear to be holding up" and have contributed to a sharp drop in roadside bombs across the country, a U.S. general said Thursday.Maj. Gen. James Simmons, a deputy corps commander, said that in October, U.S. forces logged 1,560 cases in which bombs were either found and exploded.That compared with 3,239 incidents in March, he said. The October figure was the lowest since September 2005, he added.In August, Iraqi authorities said Iranian officials promised Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that they would stem the flow of weapons and ammunition smuggled to extremists in Iraq.Since then, U.S. military officials have reported finding fewer "explosively formed penetrators," a particularly deadly form of roadside bomb they believe come from Iran."We believe that the commitments that the Iranians have made appear to be holding up," Simmons said.Iranian officials have publicly denied smuggling weapons to Shiite extremists. But U.S. authorities insist penetrator bombs are the signature weapon of Shiite militants.Simmons said that penetrator bombs were still being found in Iraq but they appeared to have entered the country months ago.U.S. authorities said penetrators were used in an attack Wednesday against a U.S. Stryker vehicle near an entrance to the Green Zone, killing an American soldier and wounding five others. Iraqi police said two Iraqi civilians also were killed.It was the first major attack against a U.S. military vehicle in that area in the last four or five months, Simmons said.He said the vehicle was struck by "an array" of penetrators. The attack occurred in one of the most heavily protected areas of the capital, raising questions how the explosives could have been planted without collusion from Iraqi police or soldiers.The general said U.S. and Iraqi authorities were investigating the attack.Simmons said U.S. authorities also were encouraged by an increase in tips from Iraqi citizens about weapons caches, which he interpreted as a sign the public was turning against both Shiite and Sunni extremists."We had found more caches by May of this year than in all of 2006," he said.Simmons said most of the roadside bomb attacks recently had occurred in Sunni areas north of Baghdad.Northern Iraq also has seen a spike in violence in recent months as extremists were pushed from strongholds in and around Baghdad.In Kirkuk, an ethnically mixed city 180 miles north of Baghdad, a suicide bomber rammed his car into a police patrol in Kirkuk, killing six people and wounding more than 20, said police Brig. Sarhad Qadir.The city has seen a rise in bloodshed ahead of a planned census and referendum to determine the future of the city — whether it will join the semiautonomous Kurdish region on its border, or remain under Baghdad's control. The bomber's apparent target was the six-car convoy of a senior Kurdish police officer, Brig. Gen. Khattab Omar, who heads the city police department's quick response force, Qadir said. Three of Omar's officers were killed, along with three civilians, but the commander survived with serious injuries to his chest and head, Qadir said. Omar was being evacuated to a larger hospital, he said. Video from AP Television News showed a charred Iraqi Humvee being towed from the scene. Many of the 21 people wounded were children who had been walking to school when the bomber struck. APTN video from inside a nearby hospital showed a young girl in a school uniform, drenched in blood. A child's shoe could be seen peeking out from under a tarp covering corpses — suggesting at least one of the dead civilians was a child.

Even the BBC admits progress in iraq now

Is Iraq getting better? The statistics say so, across the board. http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/7089168.stm By Jim Muir BBC News, Baghdad: Is Iraq getting better? Over the past three months, there has been a sharp and sustained drop in all forms of violence. The figures for dead and wounded, military and civilian, have also greatly improved. All across Baghdad, which has seen the worst of the violence, streets are springing back to life. Shops and restaurants which closed down are back in business. People walk in crowded streets in the evening, when just a few months ago they would have been huddled behind locked doors in their homes. Everybody agrees that things are much better. But is the improvement only skin deep? And will it last once the American troops, whose "surge" has clearly made a difference, begin to scale down? In the past few days, two events have underlined big changes that have happened in recent months on both the Sunni and Shia sides of the Iraqi equation. Reign of terror On Thursday, in a crowded public hall in the mainly Shia city of Karbala, south of Baghdad, the local police chief, Brig-Gen Ra'id Shaker Jawdat, bitterly denounced the Mehdi Army militia, accusing it of presiding over a four-year reign of terror there. It was an extraordinary occasion. One by one, men and women stood up and screamed abuse at the militia, blaming it for killing and torturing their loved ones. It could not have happened a few months ago, when the Mehdi Army - the military wing of the movement headed by the militant young Shia cleric, Moqtada Sadr - was the real power in the streets of Karbala. A few days later, Moqtada Sadr ordered his followers to halt all forms of military action nationwide, even in self-defence. That was a turning-point in Baghdad too. The number of bodies being found daily, dumped randomly in the city after being abducted, tortured and killed in sectarian reprisals, dropped from dozens a day to less than a handful. Scenes of rejoicing On Friday, near Samarra to the north of Baghdad, fighters from a Sunni faction called the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI) launched a surprise attack on positions held by al-Qaeda in the area. Police said the IAI killed 18 al-Qaeda militants and captured 16 others. Shortly afterwards, another Sunni group known as the 1920 Revolution Brigades launched a similar operation against al-Qaeda at al-Buhriz in Diyala province, also north of Baghdad. They captured 60 al-Qaeda suspects and handed them over to the Iraqi army, amidst scenes of rejoicing in the town's streets. These also were events that simply could not have happened until recently. Both the IAI and the 1920 Revolution Brigades used to be insurgent groups themselves, fighting alongside al-Qaeda against the multinational forces and Iraqi government troops. Blow to militants Now, starting with the western al-Anbar province and spreading east to Baghdad and mainly Sunni areas to the north, there has been a gathering trend whereby Sunni tribes and nationalist groups have turned against al-Qaeda as their primary enemy. The Americans have seized on the tactic, encouraging tribal and other Sunnis to form regional associations, such as al-Sahwa (The Awakening), as a vehicle for getting government and coalition support. In the provinces, tribesmen joining up are paid $600 a month to protect their own areas against al-Qaeda. The trend has spread deep into mainly Sunni districts of Baghdad, where al-Sahwa has filled the gap left by al-Qaeda. American forces have recruited thousands of young men, who are given uniforms and $300 a month to act as neighbourhood guards (known in US military jargon as Concerned Local Citizens, or CLCs). They apply in droves, as there are no other jobs in town. US forces have moved into virtually every area and set up fixed positions. They have local mobile phone numbers emblazoned on their vehicles for the CLCs to call if they run into trouble. This, combined with the way in which the US troop surge has proactively tackled any al-Qaeda presence it can detect, has dealt a massive blow to the Sunni militants. Islamic State elements have disappeared - shops have reopened - my daughter can walk to school without wearing a headscarf Baghdad resident The Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri Maliki, is now openly claiming victory against al-Qaeda and its affiliates. US military leaders are more cautious. "There is no part of Baghdad in which al-Qaeda has a stronghold any more," said Brig-Gen Joseph Fil, commander of the Multinational Forces in Baghdad. "But Baghdad is a dangerous place. Al-Qaeda, although on the ropes, is not finished by any means. They could come back swinging if they're allowed to, in fact, we've seen it," he added. Bomb attacks rarer But there is no doubt that it has lost out massively in Baghdad. One resident of the mainly-Sunni area of Dora, in the south of the capital, summed it up. "The Islamic State in Iraq (the umbrella name adopted by al-Qaeda groups) used to control most of the area like a phantom presence. I know Shia shopkeepers who were shot dead in their shops." "They put up notices warning people to wear strict Islamic dress. Everybody was frightened. When we called the police to report bodies on the street, they said it was a no-go area and they couldn't come." "Now, the Islamic State elements have disappeared. Shops have reopened. My daughter can walk to school without wearing a headscarf. Some Shias who fled have come back. And most important of all, we haven't heard of anybody being killed since July." The setback dealt to al-Qaeda and affiliates has had a knock-on effect in the Shia communities too. The often massive, indiscriminate bomb attacks for which they were blamed, and which used to hit Shia areas on a daily basis, have now become a rarity. The huge drop in bomb attacks has removed one of the main raisons d'etre for the Mehdi Army, the most active Shia militia in Baghdad. Since neither the state nor the coalition forces had been able to stop the bomb attacks before, the Mehdi Army could pose as the only saviour of the Shias from slaughter at the hands of fanatical Sunni extremists. Militia power "They were on the streets every day, with guns, controlling and checking people," said a Shia resident. "When there were attacks on Shia shrines, such as Samarra last year, they killed many Sunnis in the area in revenge." "Now, they are much weaker. Many of the leaders have been arrested or killed by the Americans. Others have fled. Some are still around, but they are keeping a low profile." The US military admit that around 13% of Baghdad - mainly parts of the huge eastern Shia suburbs, Sadr City, where the Mehdi Army used to hold undisputed sway - remain to be brought fully under control. But the decision by Moqtada Sadr to order a freeze on militia action has removed political cover from Shia militants who resist, and who are now regarded as "rogue elements". "When we go to the [Shia-dominated] Iraqi government with lists of militia leaders we want to get, they're very supportive," said Baghdad coalition forces commander Gen Fil. This whole thing is so US-dependent - it's temporary security - the Mehdi Army are just biding their time Baghdad Sunni resident One problem is that the Americans and the Iraqi government cannot use the al-Sahwa ploy of recruiting local youths in Shia areas to mount guard against the Mehdi Army. It simply would not work. Unlike al-Qaeda's situation in the Sunni areas, Shia leaders such as Moqtada al-Sadr enjoy considerable popular support among the Shia, even if elements of the militia have got well out of hand. Some residents of Shia neighbourhoods are optimistic that another six months of sustained effort might see the militias off for good. Others are not so sure. Massive challenges The huge problem in both Sunni and Shia areas is that continued success is desperately dependent on a continuing American presence, while the US is planning to start drawing down its forces next year. "In my Sunni area, people are happy to see their sons defending the neighbourhood in an official way, because it's under an American umbrella," said one Sunni. "That means they're not afraid that the Mehdi Army or another Shia militia will come through the lines and kill us." The Iraqi Army and police have frequently been accused of either colluding with or turning a blind eye to the Shia militias, some of which have operated openly under the guise of official security formations. Especially among the Sunnis, there is little popular confidence in the Iraqi army, and much less, if any at all, in the police. "Forget about the Iraqi police, they're either Mehdi Army in uniform or professional thieves, or both," said a Sunni living in a largely-Shia area. "It bothers me that this whole thing is so US-dependent. It's temporary security. The Mehdi Army are just biding their time, and waiting to come back out and get back to business, extorting money from people, forcing them out of their homes and then renting them out. It's big business." "I'm not optimistic about the surge, because of the sympathies of the Iraqi police and army towards the Mehdi Army," said a Shia from south-east Baghdad. "It's an ironic situation, where we need federalism, but we also need a dictator, a strong powerful government. If we don't get the militia out, there will be no solution." Purging the security forces of militia influence and sympathies is a huge task that needs a strong, neutral political will and a sustained effort. There are many other massive challenges that will affect the outcome of the current struggle. Need for reconstruction Everybody agrees that military and security measures on their own can only go so far if not buttressed by economic, social and political progress. The Americans and Iraqi government are well aware of the need to follow up with services - electricity and water supplies are still sporadic - and job-creation schemes if they are to hold the ground they are clearing. Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has said that next year will be the year of services and reconstruction. At this stage, Iraqis are looking for performance and delivery, not promises and fine words. One of the main stated objectives of the US troop surge was to clear a space for the Iraqi politicians to enact nation-building legislation and pursue national reconciliation as the cornerstone of the New Iraq. But virtually none of the key pieces of required legislation has yet been passed by a fractious Iraqi parliament which has been wracked by factional disputes. There is still no shared and agreed vision of Iraq's future. Kurds and some Shias want a loose, federal arrangement, while Sunnis and some others want a stronger, more centralised state. It matters. To which Iraq are people signing up with the security forces swearing allegiance? In the absence of progress at the top, the Americans are counting on developments and reconciliations at grass-roots levels, a "bottom-to-top" approach. How far that process can go at that level alone is an unanswered question. Despite the progress in the security arena, the story is far from over. The casualty figures are down, but people are still being killed every day. While things have improved greatly in Baghdad, inter-Shia power struggles in the south of the country remain intense, and insurgent activity continues strong around Mosul and Kirkuk in the north. Nobody can underestimate the magnitude of the task ahead. And with the clock for US troop withdrawals ticking ever more loudly in Washington, it is a race against time. But there can be no denying that many Iraqis, especially in Baghdad, are more optimistic now than they would have dared believe possible a year ago.

Sunni insurgents attack al qaeda- killing 18 of them

http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2007/11/11/al_qaeda_fighters_ex_insurgents_clash?mode=PF By Lauren Frayer, Associated Press November 11, 2007 BAGHDAD - Former Sunni insurgents asked the United States to stay away, and then ambushed members of Al Qaeda in Iraq, killing 18 in a battle that raged for hours north of Baghdad, an ex-insurgent leader and Iraqi police said yesterday. The Islamic Army in Iraq sent advance word to Iraqi police requesting that US helicopters keep out of the area because its fighters had no uniforms and were indistinguishable from Al Qaeda, according to the police and a top Islamic Army leader known as Abu Ibrahim. Abu Ibrahim said his fighters killed 18 Al Qaeda militants and captured 16 in the fight southeast of Samarra, a mostly Sunni city about 60 miles north of Baghdad. "We found out that Al Qaeda intended to attack us, so we ambushed them at 3 p.m. on Friday," Abu Ibrahim said. He would not say whether any Islamic Army members were killed. Much of the Islamic Army in Iraq, a major Sunni Arab insurgent group that includes former members of Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party, has joined the US-led fight against Al Qaeda in Iraq along with Sunni tribesmen and other former insurgents repelled by the terror group's brutality and extremism. An Iraqi police officer corroborated Abu Ibrahim's account, but said police officers were not able to verify the number of casualties because the area was still too dangerous to enter. Before the battle, the insurgent commander personally contacted Iraqi police in Samarra to tell them his plans, according to the officer and Abu Ibrahim. He asked that Iraqi authorities inform the American military about his plans, and requested that no US troops interfere, they said. The US military said yesterday that it had no record of American troops ever being informed about the operation, and it was unclear whether Iraqi police followed through on Abu Ibrahim's request. The police officer said the Al Qaeda captives would not be transferred to Iraqi police. Instead, he said, he believed the Islamic Army would offer a prisoner swap for some of its members held by Al Qaeda. The officer spoke on condition of anonymity because of the situation's sensitivity. Meanwhile, farther east, in Diyala Province, members of another former insurgent group, the 1920s Revolution Brigades, launched a military-style operation yesterday against Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Iraqi Army said. About 60 militants were captured and handed over to Iraqi soldiers, an Army officer said on condition of anonymity because he was not allowed to speak to media. Afterward, hundreds of people paraded through Buhriz, about 35 miles north of Baghdad, witnesses said. Many danced and fired their guns into the air, shouting "Down with Al Qaeda!" and "Diyala is for all Iraqis!" Like the Islamic Army, the 1920s Revolution Brigades includes former members of Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party and officers from his army. Hundreds of 1920s members now work as scouts and gather intelligence for American soldiers in Diyala. And at Baghdad's most revered Sunni shrine, the Abu Hanifa mosque, voices blasted from loudspeakers yesterday urging residents to turn against Qaeda: "We are your sons, the sons of the awakening, and we want to end the operations of Al Qaeda." The backlash against Al Qaeda among Iraq's Sunni Arab community began in Iraq's western Anbar Province last year. Americans recruited Sunni sheiks to help oust Al Qaeda from their home turf, and the movement spread to former militants who once fought US and Iraqi soldiers. Along with a US force buildup of 30,000 troops, the Sunni fighters are credited with wresting neighborhoods back from the terror network, yielding a sharp drop in violence here in recent months.The US military also said its troops detained 10 suspects in raids across central and northern parts of the country.

Mortar and Rocket attacks in Iraq drop to lowest in 21 months

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2007/11/10/international/i010942S48.DTL By LAUREN FRAYER, Associated Press Writer Monday, November 12, 2007 BAGHDAD, (AP) -- Rocket and mortar attacks in Iraq have decreased to their lowest levels in more than 21 months, the U.S. military said Monday. In the capital, Iraqi officials said a taxi driver was shot dead by a private security guard hired to protect U.S. convoys. Last month saw 369 "indirect fire" attacks — the lowest number since February 2006. October's total was half of what it was in the same month a year ago. And it marked the third month in a row of sharply reduced insurgent activity, the military said. The U.S. command issued the tallies a day after Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said suicide attacks and other bombings in Baghdad also have dropped dramatically, calling it an end of sectarian violence. Despite the drop in violence, the capital remains tense and al-Maliki and other Iraqi and foreign officials are under heavy protection. Embassy spokesman Philip T. Reeker said the company involved in Saturday's shooting was DynCorp International, one of three firms contracted to protect American officials in Iraq.Reeker could not confirm anyone had died, and he would not say who the seven-vehicle convoy was carrying nor give its destination."They reported that a private vehicle approached the convoy, and continued to approach to the point where a member of the PSD used his weapon to disable the vehicle," Reeker told reporters on a regular conference call from Baghdad, using the acronym for private security detail. Total rocket and mortar attacks rose steadily from 808 in January 2007 to a peak of 1,032 in June, before falling over the next four months, a U.S. military statement said Monday. That decline also was seen in Baghdad, where such attacks rose from 139 in January to 224 in June, and then fell to only 53 attacks in October, it said.The Iraqi spokesman for a U.S.-Iraqi push to pacify the capital said the decline in violence would allow the government to reopen 10 roads later this month."This will help reduce traffic jams and citizens will feel life returning to normal," Brig. Gen. Qassim al-Moussawi told Iraqi state television.Associated Press figures show a sharp drop in the number of U.S. and Iraqi deaths across the country in the past few months. The number of Iraqis who met violent deaths dropped from at least 1,023 in September to at least 905 in October, according to an AP count.The number of American military deaths fell from 65 to at least 39 over the same period.Before the arrival of nearly 30,000 U.S. reinforcements this past spring, explosions shook Baghdad daily — sometimes hourly. Mortar and rocket fire were frequent as was the rhythm of gunfire.Now the sounds of warfare are rare. American troops have set up small outposts in some of the capital's most dangerous enclaves. Locals previously lukewarm to the presence of U.S. soldiers patrol alongside them. And a historic lane on the eastern banks of the Tigris is set to reopen later this year, lined with seafood restaurants and an art gallery.Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, commander of U.S. forces south of the capital, said Sunday he believed the decrease would hold, because of what he called a "groundswell" of support from regular Iraqis."If we didn't have so many people coming forward to help, I'd think this is a flash in the pan. But that's just not the case," Lynch told a small group of reporters over lunch in the Green Zone.He attributed the sharp drop in attacks to the American troop buildup, the setup of small outposts at the heart of Iraqi communities, and help from thousands of locals fed up with al-Qaida and other extremists."These people — Sunni and Shiite — are saying, `I've had enough,'" Lynch said.

Uk press reporting on us success in baghdad

Upbeat US military claims it has forced al-Qaida out of Iraqi capital http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,,331210073-103550,00.html Number of murders cut by 80%, commander says Ewen MacAskill in Washington Friday November 9, 2007 UK Guardian The US military has painted its most upbeat assessment yet of security in the Iraqi capital, claiming it has forced the most extreme of the insurgent groups, Al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, out of every neighbourhood in Baghdad, and has cut the number of murders by 80%. In a move described as over-optimistic by some observers, Major-General Joseph Fil, commander of the US forces in Baghdad, told reporters that the clear-out of extremists would make it easier for the US military to reduce its presence in the city from next year. Speaking to reporters in the Iraqi capital, Gen Fil said "there's just no question" that violence had declined since a rise in June. He said: "Murder victims are down 80% from where they were at the peak." He added: "The Iraqi people have decided that they've had it up to here with violence." The US has been providing arms to militia groups in Baghdad and elsewhere to take on al-Qaida. Gen Fil's comments are in line with recent US assessments that there have been improvements in security, albeit often marginal. But European defence analysts cautioned against rushing to premature judgments. One, speaking on condition of anonymity, described Gen Fil's assessment as "wildly optimistic" and warned that there was a danger of his words "coming back to bite him". Two years ago the US declared the road between the centre of Baghdad and the international airport to be safe, only to be followed a few weeks later by a series of attacks. Al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, a Sunni group buttressed with foreign jihadists, has been behind some of the biggest suicide bombings in Iraq. Its attacks on Shia civilians have alienated many Iraqis. Gen Fil's assessment about improved security was immediately undermined by an announcement by the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, that he had given up trying to bring the country's largest Sunni Muslim political block back into his coalition government. The Accordance Front withdrew its six ministers from the cabinet in August. The US military and Bush administration officials have said repeatedly that peace cannot be achieved by military means alone and that a political settlement is crucial. The Pentagon is also privately worried about the British withdrawal from the streets of Basra, allowing Shia militia groups to fight it out for control of the province. The US command's assessment is that armour is needed to impose order and Iraqi forces who have taken responsibility for security do not have it. The number of US troops in Iraq and Kuwait stands at 154,000, up by 30,000 as a result of a troop surge ordered by President George Bush in January. The US military expects to begin withdrawing next spring. Gen Fil said: "I think there is going to come a day when certainly we will need [fewer] coalition troops in Baghdad." The death toll for American troops this year is already the worst since the invasion, but the Pentagon attributes this to increased confrontation with insurgents in the spring as part of the surge strategy, and the trend during the past five months has been downwards. Among various factors contributing to US optimism is that hundreds, possibly thousands, of Iraqis have abandoned safe havens in Syria to return home. Tahsin al-Sheikhly, an Iraqi government spokesman, said 46,030 displaced Iraqis had returned last month from outside the country to their homes in the capital.

NY Times admits we have beaten al qaeda in baghdad

Militant Group Is Out of Baghdad, U.S. Says http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/08/world/middleeast/08iraq.html?ei=5088&en=f9d310d7895a8fea&ex=1352178000&adxnnl=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&adxnnlx=1194526833-qBdbuDTNC0usCSRa4LBnQg By DAMIEN CAVE November 8, 2007 BAGHDAD— American forces have routed Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the Iraqi militant network, from every neighborhood of Baghdad, a top American general said today, allowing American troops involved in the “surge” to depart as planned. Maj. Gen. Joseph F. Fil Jr., commander of United States forces in Baghdad, also said that American troops had yet to clear some 13 percent of the city, including Sadr City and several other areas controlled by Shiite militias. But, he said, “there’s just no question” that violence had declined since a spike in June. “Murder victims are down 80 percent from where they were at the peak,” and attacks involving improvised bombs are down 70 percent, he said.General Fil attributed the decline to improvements in the Iraqi security forces, a cease-fire ordered by the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, the disruption of financing for insurgents, and, most significant, Iraqis’ rejection of “the rule of the gun.” His comments, in a broad interview over egg rolls and lo mein in a Green Zone conference room, were the latest in a series of upbeat assessments he and other commanders have offered in recent months. But his descriptions revealed a city still in transition: tormented by its past, struggling to find a better future. “The Iraqi people have just decided that they’ve had it up to here with violence,” he said, while noting that their demands for electricity, water and jobs have intensified. Hundreds, if not thousands, of displaced families are returning to their homes, but a majority of them are still afraid to go back to neighborhoods now segregated by sect. “Clearly,” General Fil said, “it will take some time for Baghdad to restore itself to what it was.” He and other military commanders have maintained for months that the conditions for national reconciliation have been met. They argue that Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the homegrown Sunni extremist group that American intelligence agencies say is foreign-led, has been weakened. They cite in particular the rise of the American-supported citizen volunteers — 67,000 nationwide, according to military figures. And though Sunni extremist groups could revive and “reinfest very quickly,” General Fil said, Iraq’s leaders should now have the peace they need to build a trusted, cross-sectarian government. But progress toward that, he said, has been “disappointing.” Soon, General Fil said, there will be fewer troops for the Iraqis to rely on. “Already we are at a point where we’ll see that as the surge forces depart the city, we’ll see a natural decline in numbers, and I’m very comfortable where that comes to,” he said. With less than two months to go before his division heads home, General Fil offered a mixed vision of the military’s role for the coming year. He said that if 2007 was the year of security, 2008 would probably be “a year of reconstruction, a year of infrastructure repair, and a year of, if there’s going to be a surge, a year of the surge of the economy.” He acknowledged that dislodging Shiite militias from control of gasoline, government ministries and other sources of power would be difficult.The biggest threat to Baghdad’s security is now Shiite militias, he said. Infrastructure weaknesses and unemployment are also serious obstacles, which American efforts at the local level cannot fully address because “these become national-level problems,” he said. Violence, meanwhile, despite recent declines in some areas, has moved to some degree to rural villages and towns from major cities, American and Iraqi commanders said. On Wednesday, two children were killed when a roadside bomb exploded on a farm road in Wasit Province. South of Baquba, Iraqi army patrols found 17 bodies, blindfolded, handcuffed and decayed. Four were found headless about 200 yards away. It was the second mass grave discovered in a rural area this week. American troops have recently focused more operations on the farm towns and dusty villages of the country, with the latest coming this week outside Kirkuk in the north. The operations are aimed at maintaining what General Fil described as vital momentum. The greatest challenge of the coming months, he said, will be satisfying the delicate hopes and expectations of Iraqis, who see security not as an end, but just as a beginning. Stability, General Fil said, “is within sight but not yet within touch.” “Close, but not yet within touch.”

Roadside bombs at three year low in iraq

As more weapons seized, roadside bombings at three-year low http://www.estripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=50089 By Erik Slavin, Stars and StripesMideast edition, Wednesday, November 7, 2007BAGHDAD — Roadside bomb attacks receded to a three-year low last month while weapons cache finds have doubled from October 2006, Multi-National Force–Iraq officials said Tuesday.Roadside bomb explosions averaged 20 per day in October, compared with a high of about 65 per day at the same time last year.Last month’s figure matches a September 2004 low and is the first time attacks have averaged fewer than 30 per day in a month since February 2006.Meanwhile, 5,364 weapons caches were found in October, compared with 2,667 during the same time last year, officials said.Total indirect fire attacks, which include rocket and mortar attacks, also dropped monthly from almost 1,000 in June to fewer than 400 in October, they said.Rear Admiral Gregory Smith, director of MNFI’s communication division, said the numbers were encouraging but he didn’t draw any larger conclusions.“It’s far too early to call this a statistically significant trend,” Smith said. “The enemy has a vote. There is still much danger out there.”Smith credited the military’s troop surge for the increasing number of caches found as well as more tips coming from “concerned citizens” groups, which act like unofficial armed police units in some areas of Iraq. Smith acknowledged those citizens groups were short-term solutions until the Iraqi police forces can establish a stronger presence.Lt. Cmdr. Keith Dowling, officer in charge of Multi-National Corps–Iraq’s combined explosives exploitation cell, said none of the weapons found last month or at the large cache northwest of Fallujah on Saturday showed any new technological sophistication.“It was a standard cache find, but a significant find,” Dowling said.The Saturday cache included rocket launchers, mortars, C-4 explosive and explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, Smith and Dowling said.EFPs are far more powerful than most other roadside bombs and can fire metal slugs at more than 4,000 mph.Some of the weapons from the largest finds came from Iran but did not appear to have arrived in Iraq since a recent Iranian pledge to stop the flow of EFPs, Smith said.

More good news from iraq

October IED Casualties in Iraq Down 50 Percent http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200711/NAT20071106b.html By Kevin Mooney and Fred Lucas CNSNews.com Staff WritersNovember 06, 2007 (CNSNews.com) - Eighteen U.S. troops in Iraq were killed by IEDS in October, a greater than 50 percent decline from last October, when 37 U.S. troops were killed in Iraq by IEDs. In total, according to an analysis by Cybercast News Service, there were 31 combat-related U.S. casualties in Iraq during October. That represents a 24 percent decline from September of this year (when there were 41 combat-related casualties) and a 66 percent decline from October of last year (when there were 91 combat-related U.S. casualties).The 18 U.S. casualties in Iraq in October that were caused by IEDs was also a decline from this September, when there were 22 IED-caused casualties.Progress on the ground in Iraq can be attributed to another great generation of American soldiers who are "creative, innovative, resourceful, free thinking and brave," Jay Carafano, a senior research fellow specializing in defense and homeland security at the Heritage Foundation, said in an interview. "This has less to do with equipment and technology and more to do with people fighting smarter," he said. "Every generation of American soldiers is the greatest generation."Carafano has identified three primary factors responsible for the sharp drop in IED-related casualties from where they were a year ago. One key factor is the "flipping" of the Sunni chiefs in Anbar Province, where a lot of the bombings had previously taken place. Once they turned against al Qaeda, it became possible to dismantle the support networks and infrastructure supporting the terror group, Carafano explained. The removal of amateurs from the battlefield who got paid for setting off bombs has also helped improve conditions, he said. Although organized networks like al Qaeda, Sunni extremists and Iranian-inspired groups continue to use IEDs, amateur groups are no longer in play, said Carafano."Two years ago if you wanted to make a thousand bucks, you could get yourself a video camera, flop an IED on the ground, blow something up and take a picture of it and get paid," he said. "Now if you try that you get shot."And finally, U.S. tactics have greatly diminished the capacity of al Qaeda and other terror networks to inflict damage, he maintained. "What's really been driving down casualties is getting to the left of the bang," Carafano explained. "This means you go after the bomber network before they put the IED out there ... where we've really made our money is going after the network, the financing, the bomber, the logistics, the surveillance and trying to get them before the bomb goes in the ground," he said.The "untold story" now at work in Iraq is how adept American forces are at fighting insurgencies, Carafano argued. "This is really a great myth that America can't fight insurgencies," he said. "This was a myth in Vietnam. But by the time the American army left Vietnam in 1973 we had gotten really good at fighting insurgencies ... The Viet Cong infrastructure was wiped out and the countryside was largely pacified." Other analysts have attributed declining casualties to the surge of 30,000 U.S. troops in June, as well as to the help provided by Iraqi citizens in finding both weapons and terrorists. The Multi-National Force-Iraq reported Sunday that an Iraqi citizen led soldiers to a large cache of both IEDs and explosively formed penetrators (EFPs)."We are getting these weapons off the street, which feels great," said Sgt. Damon Farmer, leader of the platoon that found the explosives in a written statement released by the MNFI. "That stuff isn't going to blow up my truck. It isn't going to kill U.S. soldiers and it isn't going to kill Iraqis."A study released last week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said, "The U.S. was able to take advantage of a tribal uprising against Al Qaeda in Anbar, increases in U.S. forces, a shift to 'win and hold' tactics in Baghdad and some other parts of central Iraq, and improving intelligence and more successful U.S. attacks on al Qaeda centers of power."The study, written by Anthony Cordesman, the Burke chair in strategy for the CSIS, went on to say, "The end result is a trend towards tactical victory against some of the worst violence and most violent elements of the war in Iraq. But levels of violence are still high, and still the same as in spring 2006."The study, like other analysts, said political resolution is necessary. "The U.S. can not win this war; it can only give Iraq's central government and those leaders interested in national unity and political accommodation, the opportunity to do so."

cbs news now reporting progress in iraq as well

Al Qaeda In Iraq Defeated? http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/15/iraq/printable3366346.shtml (CBS/AP) Many U.S. military commanders in Iraq believe they have dealt a large enough blow to al Qaeda in Iraq to declare victory over the group, according to a report in the Washington Post. The Iraq franchise of Osama bin Laden's terror network has been deemed the deadliest threat facing American forces and their allies since shortly after the 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. the acronym AQI, may have been dealt a blow from which it cannot recover. The Post report sites evidence such as the dramatic reduction in suicide bomb attacks - considered a hallmark of al Qaeda worldwide - from more than 60 in January to about half that per month since July. One senior military intelligence official told the paper that the captures of several AQI leaders during the summer had produced a "cascade effect," leading to the death or arrest of others in the ranks. Officials also point to a reduction in the numbers of militants coming into Iraq from Syria. However, the Post reports that there is no consensus on why that movement of bodies has slowed - and some intelligence indicates it may be due to al Qaeda shifting its focus from Iraq to other areas. The Bush administration has also touted the success of native Iraqi Sunni groups that have banded together to fight al Qaeda - which is predominantly Sunni, but seen by many Iraqis as another invading force on their land. For months, the so-called "Anbar Awakening" has drawn official support and praise from U.S. officials. The movement was backed by American officials and saw prominent Sunni sheiks from the Anbar Province - previously one of the most deadly areas in Iraq - take up arms against AQI. Anti-al Qaeda sentiment in the Sunni areas of Iraq appears to be growing, with the announcement last Thursday of another coalition pledged to fight foreign militants on Iraqi soil. In a video first broadcast on an Arabic news channel and then found by CBS News on an extremist Web site, six of the most prominent domestic Sunni jihadist groups declared the formation of the "Political Council of the Iraq Resistance". The Council is not, like the Anbar group, a U.S.-allied coalition of tribal leaders, and is not in any way supported by America or its allies - it is a coalition of militant jihadist groups who still vow to fight U.S. forces in Iraq. However, the Council pledges in its introductory announcement to battle all "foreign occupation and foreign influence" in Iraq. Very few al Qaeda militants are Iraqis, and there presence is increasingly seen as an effort to divide the country and exacerbate sectarian strife. The statement vows that militant operations will target only "the occupiers and their agents, and do not target the innocents and the vulnerable ones". This declaration is a move to label al Qaeda, whose chief tactic has been suicide attacks which leave scores of civilians dead, as an enemy. Despite facing growing animosity from the native population, and the recent successes of the American military and its allies, some intelligence experts warned the Washington Post that a declaration of victory over the group could be inaccurate, and even dangerous. "I think it would be premature at this point," a senior intelligence official told the paper, adding that AQI still has "the ability for surprise and for catastrophic attacks". The Post reports that "earlier periods of optimism… not only proved unfounded but were followed by expanded operations by the militant organization." One example mentioned was the period after the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 2006. In Other Developments: · Suspected Shiite militiamen fired mortars at two military bases and shot at a Polish helicopter south of Baghdad, prompting clashes Monday in fighting that left as many as five Iraqi civilians, including two children, dead and some 20 wounded, officials said. The Polish Defense Ministry said two Polish soldiers suffered minor injuries. · A second Iraqi journalist in as many days was killed Monday in an ambush north of Baghdad that left his two security guards wounded, according to police and relatives. Dhi Abdul-Razak al-Dibo, a 32-year-old freelance reporter, was driving his BMW with his guards near Kirkuk, 180 miles north of Baghdad, Kirkuk police spokesman Brig. Gen. Sarhat Qadir said. Al-Dibo's family said he lived in Kirkuk and contributed stories to at least two weekly newspapers in Tikrit, 80 miles north of Baghdad. · Pope Benedict XVI made a public appeal in Rome on Sunday for the release of the two priests who were ambushed, dragged out of their car and taken away on their way home from a funeral. The pope asked the kidnappers to "let the two religious men go" during his traditional Sunday blessing to pilgrims and tourists gathered in St. Peter's Square. The Christian community in Iraq is about 3 percent of the country's estimated 26 million people. · After months of frustration and bureaucratic hurdles, a N.J. mother has found a shipper to deliver 80,000 cans of Silly String to troops in Iraq, who have discovered the foam-spraying toy's usefulness in detecting trip wires for bombs. Many shippers, and even the military, had balked at transporting the donated toys because the aerosal cans are considered a "hazardous material."

washington post reporting progress in iraq

In Iraq, a Lull or Hopeful Trend? Signs of Declining Violence Leave Residents, U.S. Commanders Cautious By Joshua Partlow and Naseer Nouri Washington Post Foreign ServiceFriday, November 2, 2007; A01 BAGHDAD, Nov. 1 -- From store clerks selling cigarettes by generator power, to military commanders poring over aerial maps, Iraqis and Americans are striving to understand the sharp decrease in violence over the past several months and what it might herald for the future of Iraq. The number of attacks against U.S. soldiers has fallen to levels not seen since before the February 2006 bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra that touched off waves of sectarian killing, according to U.S. military statistics released Thursday. The death toll for American troops in October fell to 39, the lowest level since March 2006, and the eighth-lowest total in 56 months of fighting, according to the Web site icasualties.org, which tracks military fatalities. An unofficial Health Ministry tally showed that civilian deaths across Iraq rose last month compared with September, but the U.S. military found that such deaths fell from a high this year of about 2,800 in January to about 800 in October. "This trend represents the longest continuous decline in attacks on record and illustrates how our operations have improved security since the surge was emplaced," Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the commander of day-to-day military operations in Iraq, said at a briefing for reporters. The momentum, Odierno said, was "positive" but "not yet irreversible." But Iraq defies sweeping statements about safety or danger. Both Iraqis and U.S. soldiers are wrestling with a basic question: Is the declining violence a lull in the war or the beginning of a long road to peace? "My feeling is that this decrease in the violence is temporary," said Saleh al-Mutlak, a secular Sunni who leads the Iraqi National Dialogue Front political party. "It's temporary because the United States cannot maintain this number of troops in the areas where they are in. And if they do so, there will be no normal life in these areas." For Abdul Amir Jumaa, a shopkeeper in central Baghdad, the geography of his personal security is expanding but still has definite borders. He feels safe enough to travel to a wholesale market for crates of lemon soda and cartons of cigarettes, but does not yet dare send his daughter back to high school. He feels safe enough to drive his new Peugeot throughout his own Karrada neighborhood, but not in the Sunni districts across the Tigris River. His family's entertainment is watching satellite television at home because they are still afraid to venture to parks or restaurants. "The people used to talk all about 'security is bad, security is bad,' but in the past month, everywhere we go, everyone is talking about how things are improving," he said. "Before the war, it was still much better than now. It has not gotten to that level yet." In many areas of Iraq, U.S. soldiers are finding fewer corpses on their daily patrols. Some areas once under the sway of the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq have witnessed striking reversals. And Baghdad sounds quieter than last year: There are fewer deep, resonating explosions from car bombs, and the constant clatter of gunfire has become sporadic. In western Baghdad's Amiriyah district, where 14 U.S. soldiers were killed in May alone, there has not been a roadside bomb explosion since Aug. 7, said Lt. Col. Dale Kuehl, the battalion commander in the area. The last mortar or rocket attack was in July. "The local population has decided that the objectives of al-Qaeda are not consistent with their goals," Kuehl said. "Al-Qaeda overplayed their hand in Amiriyah and the locals rose up against them." While there is a need for improved electrical, trash collection and sewage systems, and for a tangible commitment from Iraq's Shiite-led government to help Sunni neighborhoods, Kuehl said, the drop in violence has dramatically improved what soldiers call the "atmospherics" of the neighborhood: There are more pedestrians, shoppers and vehicles on the streets. "I have eaten dinner in several homes and even went to a wedding. None of this would have been feasible six months ago," he said. "I hesitate to say we have turned a corner. Insurgencies tend to be fairly resilient and can come back if the underlying causes of the insurgency are not addressed in the political realm." American soldiers last winter counted an average of 275 murders per week in northwestern Baghdad; now the weekly average is down to 10 to 15, said Lt. Col. Steven Miska, a deputy brigade commander stationed in the Shiite enclave of Kadhimiyah. One factor, Miska said, was the public decision of radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to "freeze" for six months the activities of his Mahdi Army militia. "The overall trend is very heartening, obviously, but I would definitely shy away from trying to attribute it to one particular thing," Miska said. "There are a lot of factors that play into why we have this relative calm." Some U.S. military commanders say President Bush's decision to send about 30,000 additional soldiers to Iraq, and their move from sprawling bases to small outposts in violent neighborhoods, played a leading role in the decline. Iraqi and U.S. officials also argue that the drop in attacks by al-Qaeda in Iraq stemmed mostly from the decision by other Sunni insurgent groups to embrace a partnership with U.S. soldiers and abandon their complicity with al-Qaeda in Iraq's campaign of killing and religious fundamentalism. The resulting new armed groups, known by the American military as volunteers or concerned local citizens, have taken the place of a sometimes deficient, corrupt or nonexistent Iraqi police force. In Diyala province, one of the deadliest for U.S. soldiers and Iraqis earlier this year, there has been an "absolutely dramatic decrease of violent acts" since U.S. reinforcements arrived and made an aggressive effort to partner with these resident volunteers, said Col. David Sutherland, the top American commander in Diyala. "Al-Qaeda controlled their lives. Now the attacks, [car bombings] and violent acts are few and far between," he said. "We're seeing new businesses open every day, the children are back in school, public distribution system of food is throughout the province, and we're seeing an increase in essential services." Even with lower casualty numbers, the quantity of violence indicates that militias and insurgents remain active in many areas. Large parts of southern Baghdad remain a battleground where U.S. soldiers, steadily encroaching Shiite militias and persistent fighters from al-Qaeda in Iraq clash. Attacks, unless particularly deadly, often pass with little notice outside the neighborhood in which they occur. Many formerly mixed Sunni-Shiite areas have become largely the domain of one sect, since millions of Iraqis have fled their homes for other countries or other parts of Iraq over the years. "It's much harder to conduct sectarian cleansing if you've got a homogenous neighborhood which has a local volunteer security force which is on the lookout for those people," Miska said.

figures show violence ebbing in iraq

By DOUGLAS BIRCH Associated Press Writer BAGHDAD (AP) - Violent deaths of U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians appear to have fallen sharply in Iraq in October, according to the latest Associated Press tally. The AP's figures mirror other evidence that the levels of bloodshed are falling here. But the meaning of these statistics is disputed, and experts generally agree that the struggle for security and stability is far from over. The number of Iraqi civilians killed fell from at least 1,023 in September to at least 875 in October, according to the AP count. That's the lowest monthly toll for civilian casualties in the past year, and is down sharply from the 1,216 recorded in October 2006. The numbers are based on daily reports from police, hospital officials, morgue workers and verifiable witness accounts. The count is considered a minimum based on AP reporting; the actual number is likely higher, as many killings go unreported. The drop in deaths among U.S. military personnel in Iraq was even more striking, according to AP's records - down from 65 in September to at least 36 in October. The October figure is by far the lowest in the last year, and is sharply lower than the 106 deaths recorded in October 2006. The relative period of calm - if that's what it is - came during the Muslim fast of Ramadan, a time when militants have in the past escalated their attacks on U.S. forces. Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former editorial editor for The Wall Street Journal, said the apparent decline in deaths reflected the success of the buildup in Iraq of U.S. military personnel, who now number 170,000. They have also moved increasingly out of massive forward operating bases into violence-plagued areas. ``I assume it's happening because the surge is working, and working even better than those who advocated it envisioned,'' said Boot, who was an advocate of expanding the deployment of U.S. troops here. ``This is pretty dramatic.'' But Anthony Cordesman, an expert on the Middle East and military affairs with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the numbers he's seen so far mostly reflect a decline in the level of lethal violence against U.S. troops in Baghdad and Anbar province. Data collected by the General Accounting Office, he said, don't justify the conclusion that the overall level of fighting has fallen off, or that the number of civilian deaths is declining, because they don't paint a full picture of the conflict. The statistics don't reflect attacks that result in injuries, he pointed out. Nor is there reliable reporting of civilian deaths outside of Baghdad. ``I don't question that the level of violence has gone down in Baghdad and Anbar,'' he said. ``But what is not clear at all is that you have reduced the level of tension between Kurd and Arab, that the level of Shiite-on-Shiite violence is down, that the level of ethnic cleansing is down.'' The reduction in U.S. losses, he said, is mostly a result of the revolt of the Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar against al-Qaida in Iraq, and not the U.S. military buildup. And he warned that that revolt against al-Qaida was in jeopardy unless Sunni leaders get more support from the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad. ``Does focus on one set of numbers tell you that the country is moving toward stability, security and political accommodation?'' Cordesman said. ``The answer is no.'' There may be other, grimmer reasons the civilian death toll has receded. Sunnis have been driven out of Shiite neighborhoods, Shiites from Sunni areas and Christians out of both. Many Iraqis have fled their country, or seldom venture out of their communities, offering fewer targets for suicide bombers or kidnappers. Even those who think Iraq has turned a corner don't necessarily believe that the U.S. should dramatically scale back its commitment of troops - at least in the short term. Boot warns that the U.S. will have to maintain a military presence in Iraq for many years to come. ``We're going to need a long-term buffer force in Iraq,'' he said. ``We will still need troops there to assure both sides that they will not be left to the tender mercies of their enemies.'' The Bush administration hopes to cut the number of U.S. combat brigades in Iraq by 25 percent by next summer. But some doubt that the Iraqi army will be ready to take responsibility for the country's stability by then. Iraqi security services are still struggling to overcome divisions between Shiites and Sunnis and build truly national forces. Iraq's top political leaders, aligned along religious and ethnic lines, are sharply divided over where to lead the country. Maintaining even relative calm here has taken tremendous effort. Baghdad, for example, has been turned into a fortress. Huge concrete blast walls ring buildings and highways, checkpoints choke traffic and Humvees equipped with weird protruding devices to foil roadside bombs roar through the streets. The Iraqi government, with U.S. help, is in the process of trying to double the size of its national police force, from 16,000 to 33,000, in the space of just one year. There has been talk among the U.S. military of declaring victory against al-Qaida here, according to news accounts, because of recent success in killing and capturing the terror group's leaders, and disrupting its networks. Much of that progress has been made with the aid of Sunni leaders fed up with the group's violence. The top commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, on Sunday lauded success in what had been some of the most volatile Sunni neighborhoods in Baghdad, including Ghazaliyah, Amariyah, Azamiyah and Dora. But he said al-Qaida remains ``a very dangerous and very lethal enemy.''