Hezbollah uses Mexican drug routes into U.S.

Sara A. Carter (Contact) EXCLUSIVE: Hezbollah is using the same southern narcotics routes that Mexican drug kingpins do to smuggle drugs and people into the United States, reaping money to finance its operations and threatening U.S. national security, current and former U.S. law enforcement, defense and counterterrorism officials say. The Iran-backed Lebanese group has long been involved in narcotics and human trafficking in South America's tri-border region of Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil. Increasingly, however, it is relying on Mexican narcotics syndicates that control access to transit routes into the U.S. Hezbollah relies on "the same criminal weapons smugglers, document traffickers and transportation experts as the drug cartels," said Michael Braun, who just retired as assistant administrator and chief of operations at the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). "They work together," said Mr. Braun. "They rely on the same shadow facilitators. One way or another, they are all connected. "They'll leverage those relationships to their benefit, to smuggle contraband and humans into the U.S.; in fact, they already are [smuggling]." His comments were confirmed by six U.S. officials, including law enforcement, defense and counterterrorism specialists. They spoke on the condition that they not be named because of the sensitivity of the topic. While Hezbollah appears to view the U.S. primarily as a source of cash - and there have been no confirmed Hezbollah attacks within the U.S. - the group's growing ties with Mexican drug cartels are particularly worrisome at a time when a war against and among Mexican narco-traffickers has killed 7,000 people in the past year and is destabilizing Mexico along the U.S. border. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was in Mexico on Thursday to discuss U.S. aid. Other U.S. Cabinet officials and President Obama are slated to visit in the coming weeks. Hezbollah is based in Lebanon. Since its inception after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, it has grown into a major political, military and social welfare organization serving Lebanon's large Shi'ite Muslim community. In 2006, it fought a 34-day war against Israel, which remains its primary adversary. To finance its operations, it relies in part on funding from a large Lebanese Shi'ite Muslim diaspora that stretches from the Middle East to Africa and Latin America. Some of the funding comes from criminal enterprises. Although there have been no confirmed cases of Hezbollah moving terrorists across the Mexico border to carry out attacks in the United States, Hezbollah members and supporters have entered the country this way. Last year, Salim Boughader Mucharrafille was sentenced to 60 years in prison by Mexican authorities on charges of organized crime and immigrant smuggling. Mucharrafille, a Mexican of Lebanese descent, owned a cafe in the city of Tijuana, across the border from San Diego. He was arrested in 2002 for smuggling 200 people, said to include Hezbollah supporters, into the U.S. In 2001, Mahmoud Youssef Kourani crossed the border from Mexico in a car and traveled to Dearborn, Mich. Kourani was later charged with and convicted of providing "material support and resources ... to Hezbollah," according to a 2003 indictment. A U.S. official with knowledge of U.S. law enforcement operations in Latin America said, "we noted the same trends as Mr. Braun" and that Hezbollah has used Mexican transit routes to smuggle contraband and people into the U.S. Two U.S. law enforcement officers, familiar with counterterrorism operations in the U.S. and Latin America, said that "it was no surprise" that Hezbollah members have entered the U.S. border through drug cartel transit routes. "The Mexican cartels have no loyalty to anyone," one of the officials told The Washington Times. "They will willingly or unknowingly aid other nefarious groups into the U.S. through the routes they control. It has already happened. That's why the border is such a serious national security issue." One U.S. counterterrorism official said that while "there's reason to believe that [Hezbollah members] have looked at the southern border to enter the U.S. ... to date their success has been extremely limited." However, another U.S. counterterrorism official confirmed that the U.S. is watching closely the links between Hezbollah and drug cartels and said it is "not a good picture." A senior U.S. defense official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of ongoing operations in Latin America, warned that al Qaeda also could use trafficking routes to infiltrate operatives into the U.S. "If I have the money to do it - I want to get somebody across the border - that's a way to do it," the defense official said. "Especially foot soldiers. Somebody who's willing to come and blow themselves up. That's sort of hard to do that kind of recruiting, training and development in Kansas City." Adm. James G. Stavridis, commander of U.S. Southern Command and the nominee to head NATO troops as Supreme Allied Commander-Europe, testified before the House Armed Services Committee last week that the nexus between illicit drug trafficking - "including routes, profits, and corruptive influence" and "Islamic radical terrorism" is a growing threat to the U.S. He noted that in August, "U.S. Southern Command supported a Drug Enforcement Administration operation, in coordination with host countries, which targeted a Hezbollah-connected drug trafficking organization in the Tri-Border Area." In October, another interagency operation led to the arrests of several dozen people in Colombia associated with a Hezbollah-connected drug trafficking and a money-laundering ring. Hezbollah uses these operations to generate millions of dollars to finance Hezbollah operations in Lebanon and other areas of the world, he said. "Identifying, monitoring and dismantling the financial, logistical, and communication linkages between illicit trafficking groups and terrorist sponsors are critical to not only ensuring early indications and warnings of potential terrorist attacks directed at the United States and our partners, but also in generating a global appreciation and acceptance of this tremendous threat to security," he said. Mr. Braun, who spent 33 years with the DEA and still works with the organization as a consultant, said that members of the elite Quds, or Jerusalem, force of Iran's Revolutionary Guards also are showing up in Latin America. "Quite frankly, I'm not opposed to the belief that they could be commanding and controlling Hezbollah's criminal enterprises from there," Mr. Braun said. The DEA thinks that 60 percent of terrorist organizations have some ties with the illegal narcotics trade, said agency spokesman Garrison Courtney. South American drug cartels were forced into developing stronger alliances with Mexican syndicates when the U.S. closed off access from the Caribbean 15 years ago, Mr. Braun said. Mexico's transit routes now account for more than 90 percent of the cocaine entering the U.S., he said. The emphasis on Mexico intensified after the Sept. 11 attacks, when beefed-up U.S. security measures greatly reduced access to the U.S. by air and water, he said. The shift put Mexico's drug cartels in the lead and helped them amass billions of dollars and an estimated 100,000 foot soldiers, according to U.S. defense officials. Hezbollah shifted its trade routes along with the drug cartels, using Lebanese Shi'ite expatriates to negotiate contracts with Mexican crime bosses, Mr. Braun said. The World Trade Bridge between Nuevo Laredo and its sister city, Laredo, as well as Interstate 35 and Highways 59, 359 and 83, are like veins feeding the Mexican syndicates, running from southern Texas to cities across the U.S. and as far north as Canada, U.S. officials say. In addition, access routes from El Paso, Texas, to San Diego are also high-value entry points.

Turkey breaks with past, seeks ties with Iraqi Kurds

By Paul de Bendern BAGHDAD, March 25 (Reuters) - Turkish President Abdullah Gul's recognition of the Kurdistan government in northern Iraq and his talks with the autonomous region's leader on fighting Kurdish guerrillas mark a breakthrough for regional stability. In just two days Gul has helped reduce tensions and break down barriers between the Turkish state and its ethnic Kurdish minority as well as with neighbouring Iraqi Kurds. "The visit was a public gesture. We now expect cooperation to speed up between Turkey and northern Iraqi authorities," a senior Turkish official, who declined to be named, told Reuters. "But results won't happen overnight." Tensions have been the source of instability for years, not only in Turkey's restive southeast but also across the border, where thousands of separatist Turkish PKK rebels are based. Acknowledging the existence of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), which has enjoyed de facto autonomy from Baghdad since 1991, has been taboo among Turkish politicians mindful of reigniting Kurdish hopes of statehood on Turkish soil. Ankara has long refused to talk to the KRG for not doing enough to crack down on Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rebels, who use the area as a base to attack southeast Turkey. "Regional problems must be solved in a peaceful way," Gul told Reuters during a two-day trip to Baghdad, the first by a Turkish head of state since 1976. The outlawed PKK has fought Turkish forces since 1984 in a conflict that has killed 40,000 people. Turkey's tough stance on Kurdish rights has hurt Ankara's bid to join the European Union. The ruling AK Party has given Kurds more cultural and political rights. A Kurdish-language television station has started and the Koran can now be published in Kurdish. Gul invited Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani for talks in Baghdad on Tuesday, the first time a Turkish leader has formally agreed to meet an official from the KRG. "Gul's trip and the results are proof Turkey is normalising and seeking stability in the region. It is not just lip service," said leading Turkish commentator Mehmet Ali Birand. "Turkey must now make sure it did not bite off more than it could chew. Pressure is now on the Kurdish government, but Turkey will soon have to deliver too." Pressure also mounted on the PKK this week after Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, himself a Kurd, said the PKK must lay down its arms or quit Iraq. Barzani echoed his comments. The trip to the Iraqi capital is part of a comprehensive drive by the Turkish government to resolve long-standing issues with its neighbours. It is also a recognition by Ankara that keeping old conflicts frozen ultimately hurts Turkey. Gul became the first Turkish head of state to travel to Armenia last year. The two countries do not have any diplomatic ties, although work is under way to improve relations. "You see, they (efforts on northern Iraq and Armenia) are all well received," Gul told Reuters, saying breaking taboos in Turkey appeared more difficult than they really were. RIVALRY The Kurdish region of northern Iraq, made up of three provinces along the border with Iran and Turkey, already has a high degree of autonomy, with its own flag, its own international airport and its own powerful government. But improving ties with Turkey has recently gained urgency as Iraqi Kurdish leaders fear the risks of a more powerful central government under Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, Turkish and Iraqi Kurdish officials said. As insurgent violence subsides, a major threat is seen in growing tension between Maliki and the Kurds. The issue of Kirkuk is particularly sensitive as the city sits on some of the largest oil reserves in Iraq. "(KRG President) Massoud Barzani needs Turkey more than ever as Maliki gets stronger and this will become more evident when U.S. troops start leaving Iraq," said a Turkish diplomat. Gul also sought to ease tensions between Barzani and Maliki during his Baghdad visit, another Turkish diplomat said. Improving ties with Iraq, and thus influence, is also driven by concern in Turkey that non-Arab, Shi'ite Iran is gaining too much influence in the country. Turkey is also among Iraq's most important trading partners. "If the KRG succeeds in enhancing the political and economic ties with Turkey, then definitely Turkey will spontaneously defend the Kurdish region to protect its vital interests, especially economic ones," said Safen Dizate, head of foreign affairs for the Kurdish Democratic Party of Massoud Barzani. Gul said: "Once the PKK is eliminated there are no bounds to what is possible: you are our neighbours and kinsmen." (Additional reporting by Shamal Aqrawi in Arbil; editing by Ralph Boulton)

Bush's 'folly' is ending in victory

By Jeff Jacoby 'MARKETS without bombs. Hummers without guns. Ice cream after dark. Busy streets without fear." So began Terry McCarthy's report from Iraq for ABC's World News Sunday on March 15, one of a series the network aired last week as the war in Iraq reached its sixth anniversary. A nationwide poll of Iraqis reveals that "60 percent expect things to get better next year - almost three times as many as a year and a half ago," McCarthy continued. "Iraqis are slowly discovering they have a future. We flew south to Basra, where 94 percent say their lives are going well. Oil is plentiful here. So is money." In another report two nights later, ABC's correspondent characterized the Iraqi capital as "a city reborn: speed, light, style - this is Baghdad today. Where car bombs have given way to car racing. Where a once-looted museum has been restored and reopened. And where young women who were forced to cover their heads can again wear the clothes that they like." One such young woman is dental student Hiba al-Jassin, who fled Baghdad's horrific violence two years ago, but found the city transformed when she returned last fall. "I'm just optimistic," she told McCarthy. "I think we are on the right path." ABC wasn't alone in conveying the latest glad tidings from Iraq. "Iraq combat deaths at 6-year low," USA Today reported on its front page last Wednesday. The story noted that in the first two months of 2009, 15 US soldiers were killed in action - one-fourth the number killed in the same period a year ago, and one-tenth the 2007 toll. The reduction in deaths reflects the reduction in violence, which has plummeted by 90 percent since former President Bush ordered General David Petraeus to implement a new counterinsurgency strategy - the "surge" - in early 2007. Even in northern Iraq, where al-Qaeda is still active, attacks are down by 70 percent. In the wake of improved security have come political reconciliation and compromise. Iraq's democratic government continues to mature, with ethnic and religious loyalties beginning to yield to broader political concerns. The Washington Post reports that the country's foremost Shiite politician, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, has formed an alliance with Saleh al-Mutlak, an outspoken Sunni leader. It is a development that suggests "the emergence of a new axis of power in Iraq centered on a strong central government and nationalism" - a dramatic change from the sectarian passions that fueled so much bloody agony in 2006 and 2007. In the recent provincial elections, writes the Post's Anthony Shadid, Maliki's party won major gains, with the prime minister "forgoing the slogans of his Islamist past for a platform of law and order." Despite his erstwhile reputation as a Shiite hard-liner, Maliki now echoes Mutlak's call for burying the hatchet with supporters of Saddam Hussein's overwhelmingly Sunni Baath Party. Those elections were yet another blow to the conviction that constitutional democracy and Arab culture are incompatible. For the 440 seats to be filled, more than 14,000 candidates and some 400 political parties contended - a level of democratic competition that leaves American elections in the dust. A Jeffersonian republic of yeoman smallholders Iraq will never be. But over the past six years it has been transformed from one of the most brutal tyrannies on earth to an example of democratic pluralism in the heart of the Arab world. For a long time the foes of both the Iraq war and the president who launched it insisted that none of this was possible - that the war was lost, that there was no military solution to the sectarian slaughter, that the surge would only make the violence worse. Victory was not an option, the critics declared; the only option was to partition Iraq and get out. Time and again it was said that the war would forever be remembered as Bush's folly, if not indeed as the worst foreign policy mistake in US history. Even now, with a stubbornness born of partisan hostility or political ideology, there are those who cannot bring themselves to utter the words "victory" and "Iraq" in the same sentence. But six years after the war began, it is ending in victory. As in every war, the price of that victory was higher than we would have wished. The price of defeat would have been far higher.

Iraq to say it with flowers at Baghdad festival

BAGHDAD (Agence France Press) – Iraq unveiled on Tuesday ambitious plans for an international flower exhibition, the first in the country's history, to be held in Baghdad's biggest park next month. "We have invited French and European companies and a number of Arab and regional states to the festival," municipal council spokesman Hakim Abdel Zahra said of the event, which will have both a cultural and a commercial objective. "We chose April because it is the month when everyone celebrates spring and when life is reborn," he said. "For us it corresponds with an improvement in the security situation, and we want the world to be a witness." The week-long festival will start on April 15, and a main stage and exhibition stands are being built at Zawra Park in central Baghdad. "Baghdad is doing a great job to create a ceremony that includes the work of Arab, Islamic, and European countries, as well as the Iraqi provinces," Zahra said, noting that better security would hopefully help draw foreign companies seeking Iraqi clients and local crowds. "The security situation is good, and the municipality will cooperate with the security forces to provide necessary security measures," he said. During the bombing of Baghdad in the 2003 US-led invasion, Baghdadis commonly visited flower-sellers and nurseries to buy flowers and small garden plants to be left as symbols of their life, were they to be killed. Zawra Park reopened last July, more than five years after the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. It features a zoo, swimming pool and a promenade which is particularly popular during religious and national holidays.

Progress in Iraq pleases Schofield brigade leader

Mosque repairs and increasing oil exports are cited as positives By Gregg K. Kakesako Iraq's largest operating oil refinery producing more than 290,000 barrels of oil daily is a sign of progress, says the leader of a 25th Infantry Division brigade. "The exports are way up," said Col. Walter Piatt, who commands the 3rd Brigade Combat Team. "It's making money. It's producing products for the province but also for the rest of Iraq." According to a Pentagon transcript, Piatt said corruption has been stopped at Iraq's largest oil producer. In the past, "much money was being peeled or siphoned off to feed corruption or even, in fact, perhaps even the enemy itself," Piatt added. However, Piatt said the situation has changed because of a new security plan developed by the head of the refinery. Piatt said he is basing his comments on what he saw from 2006 to 2007 during the 3rd Brigade's first deployment to northern Iraq. As for al-Askari, or the Golden Mosque, one of the holiest sites in Shiite Islam, bombed in 2006 and 2007, it is being "reconstructed at an accelerated rate," Piatt said. The Army colonel said that two years ago "so much was destroyed and so much hope was destroyed. ... The town was very, very violent last time we left here, and it required a heavy force of coalition forces, police and army." Much has changed since the Tropic Lightning soldiers patrolled the streets of the town of Samarra two years ago. "Now you see markets are opened up. ... But not only is it being reconstructed and there's some normalcy returning to Samarra, pilgrims are returning. And we see thousands of pilgrims from other countries coming into Iraq to visit the shrine, and they're not having any security incidents." The bombings of the Golden Mosque divided the country along sectarian lines and resulted in some of the most violent months of the Iraq war. "There is much more construction to be done on the mosque," Piatt added. "There are some security steps that we must take forward to return the city back to its normal state. But these are two very exciting steps that we have seen, and much progress being made in both the Baiji oil refinery and reconstructing the Golden Mosque in Samarra." Under an agreement that took effect Jan. 1, U.S. soldiers do not conduct patrols alone. They have to be with Iraqis with the Iraqis usually leading the missions. For the second time, the 3rd Brigade is responsible for an area the size of West Virginia, including the provinces of Salah ad-Din, which has about 1.2 million people, and Kirkuk, where 1.5 million people live. The predominantly Sunni province of Salah ad-Din is home to about 1.1 million Iraqis and is located between Baghdad and Mosul, bisected by the Tigris River. More than 17,000 people fill the ranks of the provincial police, while another 9,000 make up the province's Sons of Iraq civilian security group, Piatt said. About 3,600 soldiers of the 3rd Brigade began their mission in Kirkuk and Salah ad-Din in November. Two have died there since the deployment began. Only one was a combat death. The other is being investigated as a negligent shooting. Piatt said Iraqi police have had no problem implementing the U.S.-Iraqi security agreement, which calls for U.S. forces to recede to a supporting role of Iraqi security efforts. By June, U.S. forces hope to operate only eight of the 20 base camps they now occupy in Salah ad-Din, he said. "The security situation here has improved dramatically in the past year, and much of that progress is directly attributable to the provincial Iraqi police," Piatt said. Piatt was speaking from his headquarters at Contingency Operating Base Speicher near Tikrit. Iraq's largest operating oil refinery producing more than 290,000 barrels of oil daily is a sign of progress, says the leader of a 25th Infantry Division brigade. "The exports are way up," said Col. Walter Piatt, who commands the 3rd Brigade Combat Team. "It's making money. It's producing products for the province but also for the rest of Iraq." According to a Pentagon transcript, Piatt said corruption has been stopped at Iraq's largest oil producer. In the past, "much money was being peeled or siphoned off to feed corruption or even, in fact, perhaps even the enemy itself," Piatt added. However, Piatt said the situation has changed because of a new security plan developed by the head of the refinery. Piatt said he is basing his comments on what he saw from 2006 to 2007 during the 3rd Brigade's first deployment to northern Iraq. As for al-Askari, or the Golden Mosque, one of the holiest sites in Shiite Islam, bombed in 2006 and 2007, it is being "reconstructed at an accelerated rate," Piatt said. The Army colonel said that two years ago "so much was destroyed and so much hope was destroyed. ... The town was very, very violent last time we left here, and it required a heavy force of coalition forces, police and army." Much has changed since the Tropic Lightning soldiers patrolled the streets of the town of Samarra two years ago. "Now you see markets are opened up. ... But not only is it being reconstructed and there's some normalcy returning to Samarra, pilgrims are returning. And we see thousands of pilgrims from other countries coming into Iraq to visit the shrine, and they're not having any security incidents." The bombings of the Golden Mosque divided the country along sectarian lines and resulted in some of the most violent months of the Iraq war. "There is much more construction to be done on the mosque," Piatt added. "There are some security steps that we must take forward to return the city back to its normal state. But these are two very exciting steps that we have seen, and much progress being made in both the Baiji oil refinery and reconstructing the Golden Mosque in Samarra." Under an agreement that took effect Jan. 1, U.S. soldiers do not conduct patrols alone. They have to be with Iraqis with the Iraqis usually leading the missions. For the second time, the 3rd Brigade is responsible for an area the size of West Virginia, including the provinces of Salah ad-Din, which has about 1.2 million people, and Kirkuk, where 1.5 million people live. The predominantly Sunni province of Salah ad-Din is home to about 1.1 million Iraqis and is located between Baghdad and Mosul, bisected by the Tigris River. More than 17,000 people fill the ranks of the provincial police, while another 9,000 make up the province's Sons of Iraq civilian security group, Piatt said. About 3,600 soldiers of the 3rd Brigade began their mission in Kirkuk and Salah ad-Din in November. Two have died there since the deployment began. Only one was a combat death. The other is being investigated as a negligent shooting. Piatt said Iraqi police have had no problem implementing the U.S.-Iraqi security agreement, which calls for U.S. forces to recede to a supporting role of Iraqi security efforts. By June, U.S. forces hope to operate only eight of the 20 base camps they now occupy in Salah ad-Din, he said. "The security situation here has improved dramatically in the past year, and much of that progress is directly attributable to the provincial Iraqi police," Piatt said. Piatt was speaking from his headquarters at Contingency Operating Base Speicher near Tikrit.

In Iraq- Maliki forms cross sectarian alliances

Political Jockeying Suggests An Emerging Axis of Power By Anthony Shadid Washington Post Foreign Service Friday, March 20, 2009; A01 BAGHDAD, March 19 -- Six weeks after provincial elections, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has allied himself with an outspoken Sunni leader in several provinces and broached a coalition with a militant, anti-American cleric, suggesting the emergence of a new axis of power in Iraq centered on a strong central government and nationalism. Negotiations are still underway in most provinces, distrust remains entrenched among nearly all the players, and agreements could crumble. But the jockeying after the Jan. 31 elections indicates that politicians are assembling coalitions that cross the sectarian divide ahead of parliamentary elections later this year, a vote that will shape the country as the U.S. military withdraws. "There is a new political map," said Anwar al-Luheibi, a Sunni adviser to Maliki, who is a Shiite. "And I anticipate this map will be far better than the one we had before." The negotiations and dealmaking mark a departure from politics that have hewed almost exclusively to ethnic and sectarian lines, fomenting the discord that brought Iraq to the precipice of civil war in 2006 and 2007. They represent the first round of a great game that may resolve a question unanswered since Saddam Hussein's fall in 2003: What coalition of interests will find the formula to wield power in Iraq from Baghdad? With his strong performance in the provincial elections, Maliki is the front-runner in forging such an alliance, a remarkable ascent for a lawmaker considered weak and pliable when he was put forward as a consensus candidate for prime minister three years ago. Forgoing the slogans of his Islamist past for a platform of law and order, his party won a majority of seats on the council in Basra, Iraq's second-largest city, and emerged as the single biggest bloc in Baghdad and four other provinces in the south, which has a Shiite Muslim majority. In most provinces, though, his party must make coalitions if it hopes to help determine who will fill the governorship and other key provincial positions. Saleh al-Mutlak, a leading secular Sunni Arab politician known for his nationalism and strident opposition to the U.S. occupation, said his supporters will ally with Maliki in four provinces: Diyala, Salahuddin, Baghdad and Babil. Mutlak heads the Iraqi National Dialogue Front, but his supporters ran under different labels in provincial contests. Mutlak said Ayad Allawi, a former prime minister who led a secular list in the campaign, will also join the alliances. The convergence of their interests is a stark contrast to the alliances that followed elections in 2005, which Sunni Arabs largely boycotted. Their refusal to vote gave religious Shiites and Kurds disproportionate power in provinces such as Baghdad, Diyala and Nineveh, all with substantial Sunni populations. In predominantly Shiite southern Iraq and Sunni western Iraq, power coalesced around ostensibly religious parties, whose members built their appeal on clandestine organizations in exile, underground networks under Hussein, support from Iran and other neighbors and, occasionally, the end of a militiaman's gun. This time, some coalitions seem to be based on ideology: a strong central government that Maliki, along with secular candidates such as Allawi and Mutlak, have endorsed, as well as opposition to the kind of federalism espoused by Maliki's Shiite rivals, who favor a Shiite-ruled zone in the south, and Kurdish parties that control an autonomous region in the north. Both Maliki and Mutlak have rallied support among Arab and nationalist constituents by opposing Kurdish territorial claims, particularly around the contested city of Kirkuk. Mutlak draws backing from among the still-numerous supporters of Hussein's Baath Party in Sunni regions, and he has long pushed for reconciliation with its members. Despite his reputation as a Shiite hard-liner when he came to power in 2006, Maliki echoed the call this month. In a speech, he urged Iraqis to reconcile with rank-and-file Baathists, those he described as "forced and obliged at one time to be on the side of the former regime." He declared that it was time "to let go of what happened" in the past. Mutlak said he told Maliki in a meeting two months ago that "there was a time when you stood against me on those issues. 'You should be happy I changed,' he told me." Smiling in the interview, Mutlak joked that first the prime minister "stole the government from us, and now he's trying to steal our political speech from us." Mutlak said that Maliki had proposed an alliance for parliamentary elections, too. But, he said, "we're still studying the message." Since the fall of Hussein, religious Shiites and Kurds had effectively served as the coalition at the heart of power in Iraq. Maliki's emergence has upset that formula, and virtually every component of the Shiite alliance has now gone its own way. The bloc that claimed to speak on behalf of long-reticent Sunnis has splintered, too, unable even to agree on a replacement for the speaker of parliament, who resigned in December. Fayed al-Shamari, a leader of Maliki's Dawa party in Najaf who will serve on the provincial council there, said he foresees a grand coalition for the December parliamentary elections that would join Maliki with influential Sunni leaders, elements of the U.S.-backed Sunni movement that turned against the insurgency and perhaps even Moqtada al-Sadr, a militant Shiite cleric whose followers witnessed a political resurgence in the January vote. Strikingly, it would not include Maliki's other Shiite rivals or Kurds. A hint of that alignment emerged in Wasit province, where Maliki's supporters were reported to have joined with Allawi's list and Sadr's followers. "There's a great possibility for this," Shamari said, although even he questioned whether it could withstand the seismic conflicts over the very nature of the Iraqi state, namely its power in relation to the provinces. "With any coalition, you have an ambition for it to be permanent," he said. "But ambition doesn't always match reality." Mutlak envisioned three main groups competing in the December vote: A list that he led, Maliki's group and an alliance of Kurds and religious parties -- both the Shiite Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Sunni-led Iraqi Islamic Party. One example of the third grouping has emerged in Diyala province, where the Supreme Council agreed to an alliance with the Islamic Party, said Ridha Jawad Taqi, a lawmaker from the Supreme Council. Mutlak, an agricultural engineer who grew wealthy under Hussein's government and is sometimes spoken of as a candidate for Iraq's presidency, said any future national alliance with Maliki would depend on cooperation in the provincial councils. "We want to see what he's going to give," he said in the interview. "Is he going to behave as a real partner or is he going to try to isolate the others?" He said he was still skeptical. "We don't think Maliki is going to act in a democratic way. We're worried that he's collecting power in a dictatorial way." Mutlak said it was his understanding that Maliki had already reached provincial alliances with an electoral list supported by Sadr's followers, a deal that Shamari, of Maliki's Dawa party, called likely. But spokesmen for Sadr and the list of candidates he supported said negotiations are ongoing. "We think they only want alliances in the provinces where they're facing difficulties. They reject us in the provinces where they feel comfortable," said Ameer al-Kinani, the head of the Trend of Free Independents, the list Sadr's followers supported. Sadr's supporters did especially well in Dhi Qar and Maysan provinces in the south, where negotiations are underway to pick top officials. To help win their backing, Sadr's officials have insisted Maliki play a role in freeing their supporters in prison. Hazem al-Araji, a Sadr spokesman, estimated that as many as 1,500 remained in U.S. custody and 2,500 in Iraqi custody. Like other Sadr officials, he complained that security forces are still arresting their followers in southern provinces. "There has been a step toward each other," said Salah al-Obeidi, another Sadr spokesman in Kufa, near the sacred city of Najaf. "But until now, Maliki's coalition refuses to give any kind of guarantees and any kind of details of the map they will follow in representing the provinces. This arouses many fears with our friends." Earlier in his tenure, when his position was far weaker, Maliki courted the Sadrists. Last year, though, he turned on them, dispatching the military against their militiamen in Baghdad and Basra. This time around, Sadr's supporters say, Maliki seems to be trying to negotiate from a position of strength. "He's not in need of the Sadrists anymore?" Obeidi asked. "Maybe, maybe." But like Mutlak, he said they will watch the behavior of Maliki's officials in the provincial councils to determine whether they could enter a broader alliance in the next election. "Until now we haven't decided," Obeidi said. "Yes, there are big obstacles between us. They can all be bridged. But until now, Maliki has not acted on any promises he made us." Asked if he trusts Maliki, Obeidi shrugged. "I don't trust any political figure," he said.

Chavez Runs Short of Cash

By Matthew Walter and Daniel Cancel March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela is holding up payments to contractors, oil services companies and targets of President Hugo Chavez’s nationalization drive, indicating the country is running short of cash after petroleum prices collapsed. Service providers to the state oil company are idling rigs for nonpayment, and Brazil’s Odebrecht SA said last week it’s slowing work on the Caracas metro because the government is past due on its bills. Chavez also owes $10.2 billion for companies he’s taken over, according to an estimate by Caracas-based economic consulting company Ecoanalitica. “The economic environment isn’t particularly conducive for any good deals for companies awaiting payment,” said Alvise Marino, an emerging markets economist at IDEAglobal in New York. “If I was one of the companies involved, I wouldn’t keep my hopes up.” The moves to conserve cash haven’t damped Chavez’s enthusiasm to expand state control of the economy as part of his “Bolivarian Revolution.” This month he seized a rice plant from Cargill Inc., the biggest U.S. agricultural company, a tree farm from Dublin-based Smurfit Kappa Group Plc, and threatened to expropriate the country’s biggest private company, Empresas Polar SA, and pay for it with “paper” instead of cash. “People have been operating under the misconception that, as much as Chavez has expropriated, he’s always paid,” said Patrick Esteruelas, a risk analyst at Eurasia Group in New York. “That’s not the case.” Shareholder Payments Chavez did pay shareholders of phone company Cia. Anonima Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela and utility CA La Electricidad de Caracas in those nationalizations in 2007. Now, Paris-based cement maker Lafarge SA says the government is past due on a $267 million payment for the takeover of its local unit last year. Switzerland-based Holcim Ltd., the world’s second biggest cement producer, is still waiting for $552 million, company spokesman Peter Gysel said on March 12. The government hasn’t reached a deal with Luxembourg-based Ternium SA since expropriating its Venezuelan steel mill last May. Cargill said it respects the government’s decision, and the agriculture minister said the company will be compensated. The government also will ultimately face judgments from arbitration initiated by Monterrey, Mexico-based Cemex SAB, Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips in their disputes with Chavez over compensation. Bank Takeover The only indication of a possible slowdown by Chavez involves plans announced in July to take over Banco de Venezuela, the country’s third-biggest bank and a unit of Spain’s Banco Santander SA. Finance Minister Ali Rodriguez, who declined to respond to questions sent via text message about delayed payments, said last month the government is reconsidering the idea. Including Banco de Venezuela, which has an estimated value of $890 million, the bill for unpaid nationalizations would rise to $11.09 billion, according to Asdrubal Oliveros, a director at Ecoanalitica. By January, Chavez already faced a cash crunch that forced him to take $12 billion of central bank reserves after bringing home $9.6 billion in government deposits held abroad in the fourth quarter, according to the central bank. Barclays Capital Plc economist Alejandro Grisanti predicts a $48 billion budget shortfall this year, barring a devaluation or tax increases. Oil Slump Venezuela, which depends on oil for 93 percent of export revenue and more than half of government spending, based its 2009 budget on expectations the Venezuelan basket, an index of the country’s crude oil exports, would average $60 a barrel. The average so far is $36.84. Rodriguez has said the government will cut unnecessary spending this year, even as Chavez pledges not to touch funding for popular social programs. Chavez’s threat to pay with “paper” if he seizes food processor Empresas Polar means uncompensated nationalizations are coming, said Miguel Carpio, an economist at Banco Federal CA in Caracas. “The message is that he’s going to pay with something that isn’t worth anything,” Carpio said. Chavez issued warnings about the company this month directly to its billionaire president, Lorenzo Mendoza, accusing Polar of evading requirements to produce rice at government-set prices. Cash Flow Problems Meanwhile, in another sign of cash flow problems, state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA has amassed at least $7.86 billion in back payments to oil service companies and suppliers, according to its third-quarter earnings statement. Dallas-based Ensco International Inc. and Helmerich & Payne Inc., headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, idled rigs in Venezuela this year because of payment problems. Exterran Holdings Inc., a Houston-based services company, is “experiencing longer cycles of outstanding receivables,” and hasn’t gotten “meaningful” payment this year, Chief Executive Officer Stephen Snider said during a teleconference on Feb. 26. The company won’t pursue new Venezuelan projects until the situation improves, he said. Venezuela’s private sector growth, which has slowed annually from 17.4 percent in 2004, saw zero expansion last year while oil prices touched a record. The state-controlled sector grew 16 percent, according to the central bank. The recent focus on food producers is probably aimed at averting the shortage of staples that Venezuela experienced in 2007, said Carlos Caicedo, an analyst at Exclusive Analysis in London. Chavez lost a national referendum on a constitutional overhaul that year. “He wanted to send a message to food producers: Come into line, or you know what will happen,” Caicedo said.

Iraq combat deaths at 6-year low

By Tom Vanden Brook and Paul Overberg, USA TODAY WASHINGTON — U.S. combat deaths in Iraq have flattened at the lowest level since the war began six years ago Thursday, and the Navy has not lost a member to combat in more than a year. Three Marines have been killed in combat since August, and none since December, records show. The Air Force hasn't had a combat death since April, and the Navy since February 2008. In some weeks, casualty figures for Iraq show, the number of non-combat deaths for U.S. troops topped those killed in fighting. In January and February, 15 U.S. servicemembers were killed in hostile action. That compares with 60 for the same period in 2008 and 149 in 2007. In all, through Tuesday, there have been 4,260 U.S. servicemembers killed in Iraq, 3,424 in combat, since the war began in 2003. Lower combat deaths match the overall drop in violence levels throughout Iraq, military officials and analysts say. In February, there were 340 attacks with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) — the top threat to U.S. troops — the lowest number since October 2004, according to Pentagon figures. All attacks against coalition forces, including gunfire, mortars and roadside bombs, have dropped 90% since early 2007, 1st Lt. John Brimley, a military spokesman in Iraq, said Tuesday. In Baghdad, for example, insurgent attacks have declined from 243 in February 2008 to 67 last month, said Lt. Col. Phillip Smith, a military spokesman in Baghdad. This month, there have been 43 attacks, compared with 740 last March. In northern Iraq, where insurgents have some of their last sanctuaries, attacks have dropped by 70% from September 2007 to December 2008, said Maj. Gen. Mark Hertling, who commanded U.S. troops there. He attributed the decline to "relentless" pursuit of terrorists, Iraqi civilians who joined ad hoc security forces and a more effective Iraqi government. "All of these things combined allowed the people to believe they were seeing progress, and led them away from the intimidation and violence perpetrated by the extremists and insurgents," he said. In Afghanistan, IED attacks, although still lower in number than in Iraq, have become more lethal. IED attacks killed 32 coalition troops in Afghanistan for the first two months of 2009, compared with 10 in Iraq.

Dramatic Advances Sweep Iraq, Boosting Support for Democracy

ABC News National Survey of Iraq ANALYSIS by GARY LANGE Dramatic advances in public attitudes are sweeping Iraq, with declining violence, rising economic well-being and improved services lifting optimism, fueling confidence in public institutions and bolstering support for democracy. The gains in the latest ABC News/BBC/NHK poll represent a stunning reversal of the spiral of despair caused by Iraq's sectarian violence in 2006 and 2007. The sweeping rebound, extending initial improvements first seen a year ago, marks no less than the opportunity for a new future for Iraq and its people. While deep difficulties remain, the advances are remarkable. Eighty-four percent of Iraqis now rate security in their own area positively, nearly double its August 2007 level. Seventy-eight percent say their protection from crime is good, more than double its low. Three-quarters say they can go where they want safely – triple what it's been. Few credit the United States, still widely unpopular given the post-invasion violence, and eight in 10 favor its withdrawal on schedule by 2011 – or sooner. But at the same time a new high, 64 percent of Iraqis, now call democracy their preferred form of government. Remaining challenges are serious. Many views have not recovered to their pre-2006 levels. Violence continues, even if much abated. Basic services such as medical care and clean water, though better, are still in short supply. Even with their confidence vastly improved, Sunni Arabs remain far more vulnerable personally and skeptical politically. Sunni/Shiite segregation has increased sharply. Kurdish-Arab relations are tense. And issues from corruption to suspected vote fraud and political gridlock cloud the horizon. Still, the number of Iraqis who call security the single biggest problem in their own lives has dropped from 48 percent in March 2007 to 20 percent now. Two years ago 56 percent called it the single biggest problem for the country as a whole; that's down to 35 percent now, including a 15-point drop in the last year alone. Fifty-nine percent now feel "very" safe in their communities, up 22 points from last year and more than double its lowest. Recent local fighting among sectarian forces is reported by 6 percent, compared with 22 percent a year ago. Optimism and confidence have followed. Sixty-five percent of Iraqis say things are going well in their own lives, up from 39 percent in 2007 (albeit still a bit below its 2005 peak). Fifty-eight percent say things are going well for Iraq – a new high, up from only 22 percent in 2007. Expectations for the year ahead, at the national and personal levels, also have soared, after crashing in 2007. And the sharpest advances have come among Sunni Arabs, the favored group under Saddam Hussein, deeply alienated by his overthrow, now re-engaging in Iraq's national life.

In Safer and More Optimistic Iraq, Support for Democracy Climbs

Monday, March 16, 2009 By Patrick Goodenough, International Editor (CNSNews.com) – Iraqis are significantly more optimistic about the future, less concerned about security and increasingly supportive of democracy, according to a new poll gauging Iraqis’ attitudes six years after the U.S.-led invasion. Asked about security in their neighborhood, 85 percent of respondents rated it as “very good” or “quite good,” up from 62 percent one year ago and 43 percent in August 2007. The proportion of those describing security as “quite bad” or “very bad” dropped to 15 percent, down from 39 percent in 2008 and 56 percent in 2007. The poll, conducted for ABC News, the BBC and Japanese broadcaster NHK, saw 2,228 Iraqis surveyed in all 18 provinces. It was the sixth in a series that began in March 2004. A total of 52 percent of those polled said security had improved over the last year. In March 2008, only 16 percent said security had improved over the previous year. Asked about the single biggest problem they faced, respondents rated unemployment and high prices above security concerns, war, sectarian violence or terrorist attacks. And questioned on how they felt things were going for Iraq as a whole – rather than for themselves personally – 58 percent selected “very good” or “quite good,” up from 43 last year and 22 percent in 2007. Growth in support for a democratic political system rose to 64 percent, up 21 points since 2007. Support for an Islamic state declined slightly, down three points to 19 percent. The third option given for a preferred form of political administration – “government headed by one man for life” – stood at 14 percent, down 20 points since 2007. Despite the rising optimism and improving conditions evident in the results, 64 percent of respondent regard the role of the U.S. in Iraq to be negative, versus 18 percent positive. Still, the same question in 2007 saw 77 percent answer negative, and 12 percent positive. Respondents were also negative in their assessment of the role of Iran in Iraq, but in that instance the trend went the other way – 12 percent positive in 2009, compared to 17 percent positive in 2007; 68 percent negative now compared to 67 percent negative in 2007. Among other noteworthy findings, the number of respondents expressing confidence in the U.S. forces rose to 26 percent from 20 percent in 2008 and 15 percent a year earlier. Confidence in the Iraqi government rose to 61 percent, from 48 percent in 2008 and 39 percent in 2007. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s approval rating climbed to 55 percent, up 15 points since last year and 22 points since 2007.

Iraq will not be haven for terrorists after US troops withdraw

By TANALEE SMITH , Associated Press SYDNEY Australia- Iraq will not be a staging ground or a way station for terrorists after combat troops from the U.S.-led coalition withdraw, the Iraqi prime minister said Friday, insisting the country is united against terrorism. Nouri al-Maliki, who is on a four-day visit to Australia, said militias and sectarianism had no place in the new Iraq, where citizens for the first time have a constitution that protects their human rights and parliamentary elections in January were run on political platforms rather than ethnic or religious affiliations. The U.S. military announced last Sunday that 12,000 American and 4,000 British troops will leave Iraq by September. That withdrawal is part of President Barack Obama's plan to remove all combat troops by the end of August 2010, with the remaining forces leaving by the end of 2011. The 4,000 British troops due to leave are the last British soldiers in Iraq. Addressing those who suggest the withdrawal will make Iraq susceptible to terrorism, al-Maliki responded: "I say no, it will not happen again, because the police and the army and the community in Iraq are all united to stop this and will not allow terrorism to come back again to Iraq. "Iraq will neither be a venue for, or a passage to, other organizations, particularly terrorism," he said in a speech at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney. There are currently about 135,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, many of them staying in place for parliamentary elections at the end of this year. But al-Maliki pointed to safe and successful provincial elections in January as proof the country has entered a unified new phase. "We have sown the seeds for democracy and educated the community that the multiparty system is good for Iraqis," the prime minister said. "We put the house in order and the new Iraq is now organized." Al-Maliki's speech concentrated on how his government has tackled the problems inherited from 30 years of one-party dictatorship under Saddam Hussein. He said they have worked to repair relationships with other countries, take weapons back from militias, override racism and sectarianism, and address the needs of widows and orphans of years of war. "It is a phase of reconstruction," al-Maliki said, noting that investment in Iraq was a welcome new development that the government was encouraging. Al-Maliki met earlier this week with Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and other government officials in the capital, Canberra.

6 Years In, Troops Glimpse Real Path Out of Iraq

By STEVEN LEE MYERS MAHMUDIYA, Iraq — As he returned to base here after a day patrolling a place once called the Triangle of Death, Capt. Landgrove T. Smith of the First Battalion, 63rd Armor, summarized the war in Iraq in a way that would once have been unthinkable. “We’re in the endgame now,” he said. President Obama’s plan to withdraw American forces called for the end of combat operations by August 2010, but here in Mahmudiya, as in many parts of Iraq, the war is effectively over already, the contours of an exit strategy having taken clearer shape than at any time before. There is no guarantee that Iraq will remain stable, that the nihilistic violence of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia will not continue, or that the sectarian bloodletting of 2006 and 2007 will not return. Crucial questions about how to share political power and oil money are not yet answered. While Iraq’s security forces have greatly improved, they remain heavily dependent on the Americans. Still, as an economic depression often becomes clear only in hindsight, so have the changes in the American war effort. Attacks are at the lowest level since September 2003, falling 70 percent since last March. Scores of outposts have closed as American forces regroup on larger bases as a prelude to withdrawing from virtually all cities by June. Commanders at Camp Bucca in southern Iraq plan to close the American prison there, turning its inmates over to the Iraqi authorities, and are considering using the base as a way station for troops heading home. In Iraq today, on the eve of the war’s sixth anniversary, only two significant combat operations are under way — one in Mosul and one in Diyala. Neither is on the scale of operations during the worst months of the war, and in both, the Iraqi Army has the lead. The main mission has instead shifted almost entirely from combat to stability operations, from fighting insurgents to rebuilding Iraq’s services and shattered economy in a way that could offer a better chance for the country to succeed, making America’s exit more like a victory than a retreat. The task now involves the sort of effort that former President George W. Bush initially sought to discredit: nation building. It means ceding real control to Iraq’s government, something the United States has previously done more in word than in deed. “We need to take our hands off the handlebars, or the training wheels, at some point,” Maj. Gen. David G. Perkins, the chief American military spokesman, said Monday. The biggest change, commanders say, has been the new security agreement between the United States and Iraq that explicitly put the Iraqis in charge of military operations beginning Jan. 1. That reduced, by design, the American role. Since then, the Iraqis have planned and carried out security for the provincial elections on Jan. 31, which took place with strikingly little violence, and for an annual pilgrimage of millions of Shiites to Karbala last month, which was marred by a series of attacks. As Mr. Obama said in announcing his withdrawal plan, there will still be combat operations, and with them, casualties. Since Inauguration Day, 26 Americans have died in Iraq, 17 of them from hostile fire. The deputy commander in the north, Brig. Gen. Robert B. Brown, described Al Qaeda as “a dying snake,” though one that still has “a punch.” As the Iraqis take the lead, though, fewer American casualties are likely to come from direct clashes with enemy fighters. In interviews over recent weeks, commanders and soldiers cautioned against overconfidence and, worse, complacency. They said much work remained before the war could be declared won. That caution informed recommendations by the senior American commander, Gen. Ray Odierno, to keep as large a force as possible through national parliamentary elections scheduled for December. American military headquarters in Baghdad is expected to announce this weekend that two brigades scheduled to rotate home this summer will not be replaced. That will reduce the number of combat brigades left in Iraq to 12. Iraq’s security forces still require significant training, not to mention basic intelligence, airpower, medical care and logistics that, for now, only the Americans can provide. Those functions will fall to the force of 35,000 to 50,000 that Mr. Obama announced would remain after the August 2010 deadline, though those Americans, too, are to withdraw before the end of 2011. The national election, in which Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki is vying for a second term, is viewed as the crucial test of Iraq’s democratic transition, the moment that could prove the country’s ability to sustain itself. Or security could crumble, as factions struggle for power and ethnic and sectarian divisions flare. “I don’t think there is any illusion by anyone that this is by any means over,” said Maj. Gen. Guy C. Swan III, General Odierno’s operations director. “In fact this may be the most fragile time in the six years we’ve been here.” More than 140,000 American troops remain in Iraq — more than the level before President Bush’s “surge” in 2007 — and the still unanswerable question is what kind of Iraq will be left behind when most of them are gone. “What is good enough in Iraq, to say that we can pull out in 18, 19 months?” asked Col. Burt K. Thompson, commander of the First Stryker Brigade of the 25th Infantry Division at Forward Operation Base Warhorse in Diyala. Mr. Obama’s plan, however, set a deadline — and for more than just combat operations. It has now given commanders a finite window in which to empower Iraq’s security forces. At Forward Operating Base Sykes, in northern Iraq, that is already happening. When the commander, Lt. Col. Guy B. Parmeter of the Third Brigade of the First Cavalry Division, arrived in December, he invited Iraqi officers into his operations center, instead of isolating them in a separate office. The Iraqis and the Americans now work together so closely that one of Colonel Parmeter’s captains discusses plans with his Iraqi counterpart by Yahoo instant messaging. “You know they’re going to stop the clock,” Colonel Parmeter said, “and you’ve got to get as far as you can.” The capabilities of Iraq’s army and police forces — their professionalism, skills, equipment — vary from province to province, as do the threats. In Mahmudiya, Captain Smith was nearly run over by a battered Nissan truck carrying Iraqi soldiers. The truck, its brakes apparently having failed, skidded and hit a median where the captain stood — in what was a striking breakdown of discipline or equipment maintenance. In most of Iraq, Captain Smith’s patrol that day last month has become the norm, not the exception. He and his soldiers stopped by an Iraqi Army headquarters to discuss a proposal to train sergeants. They visited the market to check on a furniture maker who had received an American grant. They intended to pick up a receipt for a sign they had made announcing the reopening of highway next to the American base, but Captain Smith’s lieutenant had forgotten the necessary paperwork. “Iraq is safe,” Colonel Wassin Saedi of Iraq’s 25th Brigade told Captain Smith. “This is the right time for you to leave.” Increasingly, the Americans are doing so. Until last fall, six American battalions — more than 5,000 soldiers — patrolled the region southwest of Baghdad that stretches from Mahmudiya to the Euphrates. One battalion does now. The Americans have already closed a dozen bases around Mahmudiya, leaving 1,000 soldiers at the main base, just north of the city. Memorials around the base honor soldiers who died serving here, but there has not been a combat death in the region since last March. At a recent staff meeting, the only casualty reported was a sergeant who had twisted his ankle playing basketball. Lt. Col. Jim M. Bradford, commander of the First Battalion, 63rd Armor, said what he now faced were “good problems.” The Iraqis, he said as an example, are carrying out raids without telling him. “It’s not unusual for us to wake up in the morning and learn the Iraqi Army did a search last night, and then we’re running around trying to figure out what happened,” he said. “The good part is they’re doing it.” When asked whether the American troops could leave Mahmudiya, Colonel Bradford reacted cautiously, but then he said the conditions were being set for that day. “Inshallah, God willing, creek don’t rise,” he said. Barring a dramatic worsening of conditions, Mahmudiya could then be a model for the end of the American war in Iraq. “We’re drawing down,” said Michael Clayton, an expert from the United States Department of Agriculture who since last fall has overseen the effort to restart the poultry industry around Mahmudiya, providing jobs and income for a beleaguered, oil-dependent economy. Missions like his have an even greater urgency with Mr. Obama’s deadline. “There’s talk even of next year being out of here,” Mr. Clayton said. “The light at the end of the tunnel is there.”

Power shift at Iraq power plant a key test

U.S. troops turn over a base protecting the biggest power plant in Iraq. The plant is running at less than full capacity, and higher summer electrical needs lie ahead. Then there's the danger of attack By Tina Susman March 11, 2009 Reporting from Musayyib, Iraq — Flames flickered from a metal trash can as a U.S. soldier shoved maps and other papers into the fire. A front loader carried an outhouse down a dirt lane marked N. Hellcat Road. It was handoff day at Iskan, a U.S. military base on the grounds of Iraq's largest power plant. Its troubled past, imperfect present and foggy future mirror the country as a whole as U.S. forces pull out of bases and turn them over to the Iraqis, even as recent suicide bombings have renewed fears of instability. Bombed out of commission by American warplanes in 1991 during the Persian Gulf War, targeted by insurgents after the U.S.-led invasion of 2003 and occupied by American forces for nearly six years, the thermal plant is light-years ahead of what it was at the start of the current conflict, but still operating at less than half capacity. Inside a control room, the original equipment with its buttons, levers and blinking lights looks like an artifact from the set of "Star Trek"; new equipment is coming, but it takes time. In the lobby, a cobweb-cloaked model of the plant as it looked after the 1991 bombing serves as a reminder of the attack, as if that were necessary -- employees bring it up in every conversation with a foreign visitor. But when Iraqis here, and in the rest of the country, speak of the superpower that both pummeled and protected them, they sound like college graduates glad to be free of classrooms but anxious about what lies ahead. Most are happy to see the occupation's end in sight, even as they acknowledge that the situation is far from fixed and might never be as good as they hoped. The plant, for example, produces about 600 megawatts -- enough to power about 150,000 homes in this area of lush fields, sandy plains and market towns bearing the scars of battles past. That's good enough for now because "the weather is nice," the plant manager, Abbas Ubad, said as the sun sparkled off the Euphrates River out his office window. "No one is using their heaters or air conditioners." Ubad's unspoken warning: Come May, when temperatures begin their annual climb into triple digits, demand will soar and so will public dissatisfaction with services, government and life since the current conflict began. If anything has angered Iraqis more than the insecurity that followed the U.S.-led invasion, it is the shortage of electricity. Both have vastly improved. Even so, 258 Iraqis, including 211 civilians, died in war-related violence last month. The country produces about 6,000 megawatts of power, compared with 4,100 five years ago, but 6,000 was the goal set for June 2004 by then-U.S. viceroy L. Paul Bremer III. Now, the country needs twice that, Ubad said. That, he concedes, is not possible until new power plants are built and behemoths such as this one, built in 1985 and held together with components from South Korea, Russia and Germany, are back to full speed. As he spoke, smoke puffed from three of the plant's four giant chimneys. The fourth was idle, its associated unit down for maintenance. Even if the unit comes back online as planned within a couple of months, the plant still won't produce to capacity because of old parts that present maintenance difficulties, the plant's planning manager, Mohammed Ali, said as he walked through a hangar-like room where pigeons perched on the sills of broken windows and signs warned that objects could fall from above. Nevertheless, the ceremony in a courtyard outside was seen as a huge step forward. A vase of flowers sat on the small table where a U.S. official and a representative of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki conducted the official transfer of responsibility Feb. 22. One of the Iraqi security officers attending the ceremony was Capt. Qassim Hussein Anad of the 150-member Ministry of Energy security force, which officially took over plant protection. He speaks of Iraqi forces' eagerness to take charge but warns that nothing is certain in a region once so violent that it was dubbed "the triangle of death." Asked what concerned him most, Anad nodded to the north, toward a region known as the lakes area. "It's an open area," he said, describing it as 60% secured. Army Lt. Col. Steven Miska, commander of the battalion in charge of the area, acknowledged that the lakes region has remnants of the Al Qaeda in Iraq militant group and that other insurgent activity occurs there. He said that if there were an attack, Iraq's army, police and the ministry security forces would be on the front line. There is a small U.S. outpost across the river; the closest U.S. brigade is about 20 miles away. A few days earlier, Miska said, Iraqi security forces had demonstrated their readiness by responding rapidly to a nearby suicide bombing that killed 35 people. "Politically, it's a move in the right direction," Miska said of handing over authority. "It demonstrates their sovereignty if they are in control of security, of power, in their region." Sovereignty or not, bombings such as the one a week earlier worry many Iraqis, who wonder about the reliability of their security forces even as they long for an end to the foreign occupation with its checkpoints, incessant frisks, searches of handbags and briefcases, and slow-moving military convoys whose gunners point menacingly at close-following cars. It's a concern the Americans who have lived here acknowledged as they watched the last of their mini-city, with its latrines, trailers and heavy equipment, being moved out of the base, an exercise that had begun weeks before and required 600 flatbed truckloads. "They're all very anxious and nervous. Once Iraqis realize we've left the FOB [forward operating base], they're worried there could be an attack," said Army Capt. Bradley Kinser, who says 900 U.S. soldiers and 500 support personnel occupied the base at one time. But Kinser said an attack was "extremely unlikely" because of improvements in the Iraqi security forces, and because of local support for the plant. Everyone wants electricity, even "bad guys," the Americans and Iraqis here agree. "We're developing, we're evolving," Anad, smartly clad in his blue uniform and black beret, said as he ticked off various security measures designed to keep the plant, at least, safe. More important than men in uniform carrying guns, Anad said, was mind-set. "Our hearts are together," he said of Iraqis. "People are tired of fighting. They saw five years of violence and got nothing from it." U.S. and Iraqi officials also point to the peaceful Jan. 31 provincial elections as powerful evidence that Iraq has turned a corner. Losing parties accepted defeat, and Iraqis organized and protected polling on their own, they say. With that milestone behind them, U.S. officials are looking toward other markers, such as national elections this year, as they figure out how to reach President Obama's August 2010 end-of-combat goal outlined last month. By then, only 35,000 to 50,000 troops would remain, compared with the 142,000 here now. Remaining troops would be limited to training Iraqi security forces and other noncombat duties. "This is Iraq, and a lot can happen by then," said Maj. Gen. David Perkins, the chief U.S. military spokesman. "There will be enough very difficult events that will put the Iraqi security forces, the institutions of Iraq, to a test to see how they come out. How they come out will determine the way forward." The way to stanch discontent, everyone here agrees, is to provide essential services. "That means electricity. Nothing else matters except electricity," said a Western advisor to Maliki's government, saying that progress "could all go down the drain" if Iraqis face another stifling summer without sufficient power.

Offers of aid raise hopes Iraqi women will benefit

Key minister reverses her threat to quit By Sinan Salaheddin Associated Press Tuesday, March 10, 2009 Baghdad —- Iraq’s state minister for women’s affairs said Monday she plans to withdraw her resignation after receiving pledges from aid organizations to help improve women’s lives. Nawal al-Samarraie quit last month to protest the lack of resources for women, accusing the government of not making women’s needs a priority. But the Sunni activist decided to return to her job after getting pledges for funds and support from international organizations. She also said more than 50 Iraqi women have offered to volunteer to implement her ministry’s plans. Al-Samarraie said she will present her request to be reinstated today to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s office. It was unclear whether he would accept her request. Women face overwhelming hardships in Iraq, with hundreds of thousands left poor or widowed by more than three decades of war. Oxfam, a Britain based charity, said Sunday the situation has worsened for many Iraqi women since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion despite security gains over the past year and a half. A study released by the group showed the overwhelming majority of women interviewed did not have sufficient access to electricity or clean drinking water, and 75 percent of the widows were not receiving the government aid they are owed. All Iraqis have undergone difficulties, but women face the additional danger of being sidelined and unable to get jobs in a male-dominated society. Widows in Iraq, for example, traditionally move in with their extended families, but many families find it increasingly difficult to care for them and their children. In addition to homelessness, women also face domestic violence and random detention when they are caught up in U.S.-Iraqi military sweeps, Oxfam said. In a second study, the Iraqi government and the World Health Organization said 19 percent of Iraqi women suffer mental disorders of some kind, with depression, phobias, post-traumatic stress disorder and anxiety among the most common. Among those who had mental health issues, nearly 70 percent said they had contemplated suicide, the study said. The New York Times contributed to this article.

Iraq's Sunni Awakening movement takes first place in Anbar province elections

Pro-U.S. group, which switched sides in 2006 to fight Al Qaeda, says it's ready to govern By Liz Sly Tribune correspondent RAMADI, Iraq — The tribal leaders who turned their guns against Al Qaeda in Iraq and helped turn the tide of the war are now facing a radically different but perhaps equally formidable challenge: the task of governing the vast and historically volatile province of Anbar. Final results in Iraq's provincial elections gave first place to a slate of candidates fielded by the Awakening movement, the Sunni group of tribesmen who switched sides in 2006 and joined the U.S. in the fight against Al Qaeda. With 25 percent of the vote and eight seats on the 29-seat council, the Awakening will have to govern in coalition with smaller parties. But its first-place showing will give the tribes who defeated Al Qaeda a leading role in the administration, an outcome that Awakening leaders believe is their due after their heroic efforts. "We are the sons of the province, and we are ready to run the province," said Ahmad Abu Risha, who inherited the leadership of the Awakening movement after his brother, Abdul Sattar, was killed in a suicide bombing in 2007. Fighting Al Qaeda and running a provincial council are entirely different matters, however, and there is skepticism whether the tribal movement is up to the job. Things are already off to an inauspicious start. With the vote count still incomplete but showing the rival Islamic Party in the lead, Abu Risha accused the party of ballot-stuffing and threatened war if its lead was upheld. The final result helped soothe Awakening tempers but stirred the ire of the Islamic Party, which has governed Anbar since 2003. It alleges the result was fixed to mollify the Awakening and head off the threat of violence. "People think the results were made up—a deal with the government in Baghdad and also the Americans to satisfy Abu Risha," said Khamis Ahmed Abtan, the outgoing deputy head of the provincial council, who is affiliated with the Islamic Party and who worries that an Awakening-led administration will introduce tribalism to local government. "Anbar is going to be ruled according to emotions and according to affiliations of tribes," he said. "We're already seeing it. People are saying, 'We're of X tribe, so we've got to have X job.' I don't think this is good for the security of the province." Abu Risha disputes that. All his candidates for seats on the council have been chosen according to their qualifications and not their tribal affiliations, he said. In any case, "this is Anbar. Everyone is from a tribe," said Abu Risha, who lives the life of a typical sheik in a pink mansion decorated with cream columns on the outskirts of the provincial capital, Ramadi. On the walls of his office, alongside pictures of his tribal ancestors and colonial-era shotguns, hang photographs of his slain brother, who was killed in an Al Qaeda suicide bombing, and of himself meeting with former President George W. Bush and the chief of U.S. Central Command, Gen. David Petraeus. But the danger that Awakening rule will stir tribal tensions has already become apparent, according to Mohammed al-Hayess, a rival sheik who lives in a similar pink mansion nearby. He was among the original founders of the Awakening, but had fallen out with Abu Risha and fielded a separate slate of candidates in the election. "The competitiveness of the elections created divisions between the tribes, and even within tribes," said Hayess, who also keeps photographs of himself meeting Bush and Petraeus on his walls. "It's because politics is something new to us." Abu Risha nonetheless said he is confident that the Awakening will do a better job than the previous administration, which neglected to improve the province's ravaged infrastructure and services. Downtown Ramadi still looks like the war zone it was a few years back when U.S. Marines, then the tribes, fought street battles with insurgents. Apart from a few licks of paint here and there, little has been done to repair the damage. Residents receive three hours of electricity a day, water supplies are intermittent, and health care is almost non-existent. Compounding the challenge, the collapse in the price of oil, and consequently Iraqi revenues, means the new council is going to have to deal with a budget barely half that of the previous year. Abu Risha says he plans to compensate by luring foreign investors, something the Islamic Party failed to do. But Abtan, the departing deputy provincial leader, shook his head in disbelief. "Foreign investors want electricity 24 hours. They want paved roads, reliable banks and a good hotel to stay in," he said. "These are the main requirements for foreign investment, and none of them are available in Anbar. "It's impossible," he added. "They have serious problems ahead."

Road map out of Iraq takes shape

By CHELSEA J. CARTER The Associated Press BAGHDAD — The U.S. military map in Iraq in early 2010: Marines are leaving the western desert, Army units are in the former British zone in the south and the overall mission is coalescing around air and logistics hubs in central and northern Iraq. Meanwhile, commanders shift attention to helping Iraqi forces take full control of their own security. The Pentagon has not released full details of President Obama's plan to end the U.S. combat role in Iraq by Aug. 31 of next year, but the broad contours are taking shape. Between 35,000 and 50,000 soldiers are expected to remain in a transition period before all troops must leave by the end of 2011 under a joint pact. The bulk of the current 138,000 U.S. troops are expected to remain until Iraq's national elections, scheduled for late this year. Maintaining security for the balloting is considered a top priority by the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. Ray Odierno, and other high-ranking Pentagon officials. Then the pullout will accelerate. Leaving Anbar The first significant shift could be with the 22,000 Marines in Anbar province, a broad wedge of western desert where insurgents once held sway over key cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi. The Marines have already tested exit routes through Jordan with plans for a full-scale exodus during the "2010 calendar year," said Terry Moores, deputy assistant chief of staff for logistics for Marine Corps Central Command. The early exit from Anbar carries two messages. It's part of the shift of military focus to Afghanistan. Obama plans to send 17,000 more soldiers and Marines to Afghanistan, to join 38,000 already fighting a strengthening Taliban-led insurgency. Anbar also represents a critical turning point of the war. A U.S.-directed effort in late 2006 began to recruit and fund tribal leaders to join the fight against al-Qaida in Iraq and other insurgent groups. The groups were eventually uprooted in Anbar and began to lose their hold in and around Baghdad. Southern strategy In the south, the U.S. Army is making plans to fill the void left by the departure this spring of 4,000 British troops outside Basra, a hub of the nation's southern oil fields. Odierno has said a division headquarters, about 1,000 personnel, plus an undetermined number of troops would go to Basra. The transition is expected to begin in late March, and it's likely a U.S. force will stay there until the final pullout in 2011. Basra is a proving ground for Iraq's ability to handle security on its own. The small British contingent has largely stayed out of direct security operations, leaving it mostly to Iraqi commanders. During a tour of Basra on Friday, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said some military personnel will remain to train Iraq's navy, but the primary British goal is humanitarian aid and development. "We will focus upon cultural, economic and educational topics," he told Basra Gov. Mohammed al-Waili. The Mosul problem Northern Iraq, meanwhile, poses the greatest uncertainties for the Pentagon. Mosul — Iraq's third-biggest city — remains one of the last havens for al-Qaida in Iraq, and its streets are among the country's most dangerous. On Tuesday, two Iraqi police opened fire during a U.S. military inspection of an Iraqi security unit in Mosul, killing one American soldier and an interpreter. The attack deepened worries of possible infiltration of security forces in the Mosul area. U.S. combat support for Iraqis is likely to continue — and perhaps expand — in the coming 18 months. It then could become high on the agenda for the counterterrorism missions, which could include ground forces and aerial surveillance. U.S. troop strength in the Mosul area is relatively light, but there is a U.S. base on the city's edge. The northern city of Kirkuk is another potential trouble spot. Tensions between Kurds and Sunni Arabs over control of the city — and center of the northern oil fields — show no signs of easing. Around Baghdad Two bases north of Baghdad will likely take more prominent roles next year. Balad Air Base, home to more than 20,000 U.S. forces, provides air power, logistics and counterterrorism support, plus training for Iraqi security forces. Its location, 50 miles north of Baghdad, offers a rich vantage point for intelligence gathering and analysis across the entire north and specific areas such as the Iranian border. Another major U.S. air and logistics base in Taji, 12 miles north of Baghdad, sits next to Iraq's new supply and logistics hub. The two sites would be a natural centerpiece for U.S. training and advising of the Iraqi military, Army Brig. Gen. Steven Salazar, the deputy commanding general at Multi-National Security Transition Command, said recently. In Baghdad, the U.S. military is already making changes in anticipation of the first step of the withdrawal timetable: U.S. forces out of major cities by June. The United States has handed over the Green Zone to the Iraqi government, closed forward operating bases and combat outposts in the city or turned them into smaller stations where U.S. troops work alongside Iraqi security forces. But Camp Victory, a huge base on the outskirts of Baghdad in a former Saddam palace complex, will continue to serve as the U.S. nerve center in the capital.

U.S. forces in Iraq remain focused

Richard Tomkins AL-ABBARA, Iraq | U.S. and Iraqi soldiers scouring the palm groves here for extremists' weapons caches during a recent patrol seemed to take in stride the announcement that the majority of U.S. troops will be withdrawn from Iraq within 18 months. About five months into a 12-month deployment, the decision won't speed up their departure. Most are also of the opinion that Iraqi security forces are increasingly capable of going it alone - and will be even more so when August 2010 rolls around. Iraqis expressed confidence in their own abilities and the prospects of increasing stability. But they did so with the caveat with which they pepper all plans and hopes. "Right now you can't go. There are still a lot of things bad," said Sgt. Jawed Athab, a sergeant with the 18th brigade, 5th Iraqi army division. "Right now we are about 70 percent capable [of handling security]. In 18 months it will be better and the Iraqi government will control the country. Inshallah," he said, or God willing. Added Army Specialist Steve Schumer: "I think there is still a lot of work to be done as far as leaving the country. I don´t know if they have the support structure to handle the country on their own. [But] with us now in more of an observation/support role we're in a position to train these guys a lot and pass on our knowledge more." Sgt. Athab and Specialist Schumer are members of reconnaissance platoons that partner and operate south of Baquoba, the capital of Diyala province. The area is still a battle zone against al Qaeda and other extremist groups. The day before the president's announcement the two units were searching for arms caches and terrorist "spider holes" in deep and bone-dry irrigation canals near Baladrooz, where Iraqi and U.S. forces are conducting a major operation to root out al Qaeda and other terrorist cells. The day after, it was al-Abbara, farther to the south, where an extremist cell of four to six men infiltrate through thick palm groves every week or so to plant improvised explosive devices or fire on Iraqi police outposts. Sgt. Athab has been a soldier for five years. Specialist Schumer, a member of the 2nd Battalion, 8th Forward Artillery Regiment, is on his second deployment to Iraq. Given changing troop needs in Iraq, Specialist Schumer and others in artillery units are doing more infantry-related tasks. Members of the reconnaissance platoon said that of the Iraqi troops they've worked with, the Iraqi army's 18th brigade reconnaissance platoon stands out. "They're a good platoon," said Specialist Schumer. "We've worked with a lot of others and they're the best." Iraqi security forces totaled nearly 615,000 as of Jan. 1, according to figures compiled by the State Department. Of that figure, about 196,000 were army units. The Pentagon in a report to Congress last September noted their increased capabilities in planning, conducting and sustaining operations. Under the Strategic Framework Agreement, formerly called the Status of Forces Agreement, Iraqi troops are now in the lead. President Obama's plan calls for all U.S. troops to leave the country by the end of August next year, except for a residual force of between 30,000 to 50,000 to continue training Iraqis and helping in counterinsurgency operations. There are about 140,000 to 148,000 U.S. soldiers currently in the country. Given the importance of security for and after Iraq's parliamentary elections at the end of this year, the withdrawal will be paced - quicker after the voting than before it. But complicating the matter is still the question of transporting not just troops but equipment out of Iraq. A Government Accountability Office report to Congress last month said as of May of last year there were some "582,000 pieces of equipment such as up-armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles, Mine Resistant Armored Program (MRAP) vehicles, and other wheeled and tracked vehicles" in Iraq that would have to be transported out of the country if not left behind. "The availability in theater of military-owned and operated heavy equipment transports and convoy security assets, combined with limits on the primary supply route, could inhibit the flow of materiel out of Iraq," the report said. "According to [Defense Department] officials, two types of heavy equipment transports support U.S. forces in the Iraqi theater of operations: commercially contracted unarmored transports and armored military transports with military crews. Any increase in the number of civilian transports without a corresponding increase in the number of military transports, they maintain, increases the risk of accidents." Possible exit routes being mentioned include ports in Kuwait, Jordan and possibly even Turkey. But those kinds of questions are for others. For Specialist Schumer and his comrades in the reconnaissance platoon, they're focus is doing their jobs - now - and to keep mentoring their Iraqi partners. "What the future holds, nobody can predict." 1st Lt. Adam Redden, the reconnaissance platoon commander said. "[The Iraqis] definitely won't be proficient in everything, but they're getting better. As for us, we go where we're told to go and when we're told to go." Sgt. Karl Augustus, on his third tour in Iraq, said that for him that will probably be Afghanistan, where Mr. Obama plans to deploy more forces. The withdrawal plan "gets us out of here, and I'm just ready for whatever," he said. "I'm expecting Afghanistan next. I think they are ready to handle everything. I think the [Iraqi army] and [Iraqi police] can do it." Added an Iraqi soldier: "It looks like everything is going to be stable. So maybe it will be good [when the U.S. troops leave] ... or maybe it will go bad." "Inshallah, we will" keep it stable, he said.

US commanders hone battlefield diplomacy in Iraq

By LARA JAKES, Associated Press Writer Lara Jakes, Associated Press Writer DAWR, Iraq – Sheik Sabah Mutasher appreciated the U.S. Army's efforts to build a school for his tribe. But he didn't embrace the American mission until Col. Walt Piatt showed up in a dusty pickup truck for a spur-of-the-moment courtesy call. The sight of a U.S. officer riding with locals instead of in a bomb-protected vehicle is a window into the future for American forces. With the end of combat operations fixed for August 2010, commanders will switch to support and training roles and are now sharpening their skills at street-level diplomacy. It's all part of the shift in Iraq to emphasize the soft power of the Pentagon, which can use its troops and armored equipment to move around the war-battered nation more quickly and easily than State Department or other American officials. But it's also left the military grappling with how to task combat troops in Iraq beyond the end of combat deadline set last week by President Barack Obama. "All soldiers are combat soldiers," Maj. Gen. David G. Perkins told reporters Monday in Baghdad. "The focus is what is their mission. That really becomes the issue." In Piatt's patch of north-central Iraq, the focus has increasingly shifted for his Hawaii-based infantry brigade: crop-growing, water projects, employment and helping local leaders navigate their new political system. Insurgent-hunting and other battlefield duties are mostly left to the Iraqis. "This is what I call local moral support," Mutasher told Piatt as the two stood Saturday afternoon at an Iraqi Army checkpoint in Dawr, a small village outside Tikrit where Saddam Hussein was captured. "You sit in this pickup truck, not in the armored vehicles behind them. That is moral support." Piatt smiled but was otherwise all business. A few minutes earlier, a lower-ranking sheik from the same al-Shammar tribe had privately complained that his tribesmen have yet to be paid by the Iraqi government for manning a checkpoint. The problem appeared to be whether the BMW-driving Mutasher had made sure the guards were registered and on the payroll. "Are you confident these men will be able to register?" Piatt asked Mutasher. "We must make sure." "I'm going to have the list ready with names," the sheik said, adding that U.S. and Iraqi government officials ultimately would have to approve paying the guards. "We'll complete the names and, as soon as we have them, you'll sign." The polite confrontation, which took place in the middle of a highway, capped Piatt's day of meetings with local Iraqis and surveying Tuz Khormato, a bustling if grimy city about 130 miles (210 kilometers) north of Baghdad. Training the Iraqi police and army remains a military priority for the Obama administration, which will leave up to 50,000 U.S. troops in Iraq to advise the Iraqi government and help set up services such as electricity, water and education. The sticking point is whether or not the troops will be the combat soldiers who have become on-the-job experts in the diplomacy mission. The U.S. Army has only 45 combat brigades, each with about 3,500 soldiers, many of which are needed to fight an escalating war in Afghanistan. In Tuz Khormato, where cows ate from piles of trash and children in the marketplace begged American soldiers for pens, Piatt met with the chief of the city's police department and the head of an emergency response center that may soon host a permanent onsite U.S. adviser. Sunni and Shiites almost evenly divide the population of Tuz Khormato, said police Chief Hussein Ali Rasheed, whose force has 484 officers and 37 cars to patrol the city of 100,000. Computers don't work at the one-room emergency response center, and its leader, retired Iraqi Maj. Mohammed Fathel Aziz, pleaded for a new color copy machine to replace one that has broken down. To him, the copier problem symbolized the dwindling financial support for his center. Piatt was noncommittal about the copy machine but raised the issue of the center's cramped quarters later with Mayor Mohammed Rashid Mohammed. "I'm looking forward for the joint coordination center to be moved up here," Piatt told Mohammed. Mohammed flashed a look at Aziz. "Is he your patron?" the mayor asked the retired Iraqi major, nodding at Piatt in a brief moment of tension. Piatt later said he merely hoped to speed the moving process. His combat troops, part of the 25th Infantry Division from Schofield Barracks, Hawaii, are scheduled to leave Iraq in October. If they are not replaced by another combat team, he wants to "make sure we're creating something that can be sustained by the Iraqis themselves." "If you don't keep pressuring for the roots of good governance, you allow for the insurgency to grow," Piatt said. "It's just as important."

Russian Scholar Says U.S. Will Collapse Next Year

Wednesday, March 04, 2009 If you're inclined to believe Igor Panarin, and the Kremlin wouldn't mind if you did, then President Barack Obama will order martial law this year, the U.S. will split into six rump-states before 2011, and Russia and China will become the backbones of a new world order. Panarin might be easy to ignore but for the fact that he is a dean at the Foreign Ministry's school for future diplomats and a regular on Russia's state-guided TV channels. And his predictions fit into the anti-American story line of the Kremlin leadership. "There is a high probability that the collapse of the United States will occur by 2010," Panarin told dozens of students, professors and diplomats Tuesday at the Diplomatic Academy — a lecture the ministry pointedly invited The Associated Press and other foreign media to attend. The prediction from Panarin, a former spokesman for Russia's Federal Space Agency and reportedly an ex-KGB analyst, meshes with the negative view of the U.S. that has been flowing from the Kremlin in recent years, in particular from Vladimir Putin. Putin, the former president who is now prime minister, has likened the United States to Nazi Germany's Third Reich and blames Washington for the global financial crisis that has pounded the Russian economy. Panarin didn't give many specifics on what underlies his analysis, mostly citing newspapers, magazines and other open sources. He also noted he had been predicting the demise of the world's wealthiest country for more than a decade now. But he said the recent economic turmoil in the U.S. and other "social and cultural phenomena" led him to nail down a specific timeframe for "The End" — when the United States will break up into six autonomous regions and Alaska will revert to Russian control. Panarin argued that Americans are in moral decline, saying their great psychological stress is evident from school shootings, the size of the prison population and the number of gay men. Turning to economic woes, he cited the slide in major stock indexes, the decline in U.S. gross domestic product and Washington's bailout of banking giant Citigroup as evidence that American dominance of global markets has collapsed. "I was there recently and things are far from good," he said. "What's happened is the collapse of the American dream." Panarin insisted he didn't wish for a U.S. collapse, but he predicted Russia and China would emerge from the economic turmoil stronger and said the two nations should work together, even to create a new currency to replace the U.S. dollar. Asked for comment on how the Foreign Ministry views Panarin's theories, a spokesman said all questions had to be submitted in writing and no answers were likely before Wednesday. It wasn't clear how persuasive the 20-minute lecture was. One instructor asked Panarin whether his predictions more accurately describe Russia, which is undergoing its worst economic crisis in a decade as well as a demographic collapse that has led some scholars to predict the country's demise. Panarin dismissed that idea: "The collapse of Russia will not occur." But Alexei Malashenko, a scholar-in-residence at the Carnegie Moscow Center who did not attend the lecture, sided with the skeptical instructor, saying Russia is the country that is on the verge of disintegration. "I can't imagine at all how the United States could ever fall apart," Malashenko told the AP.

Americans' lasting mark on Iraq: colorful, complex tattoos

Popular designs include tigers, dragons, and swords, although overt displays of the body art remain somewhat taboo. Tom A. Peter | The Christian Science Monitor Baghdad - Before US troops rolled into Iraq, Robert Eagle, an Iraqi, had seen his fair share of tattoos. There were lots of traditional Bedouin designs – simple patterns of lines and dots – and prisoners who scrawled loved ones' names using ink and a sewing needle, but nothing more complicated than this. "These were terrible tattoos," says Mr. Eagle, who goes by the English translation of his name. It wasn't until US forces arrived and Eagle began working alongside American and British security contractors inked with dragons, Chinese characters, and a host of other designs that he realized there existed a world of unexplored potential. Within months, he'd gotten a colorful eagle with flaming wings on his arm, the first of several tattoos. Nearly six years into the Iraq war, the American presence has literally left its mark on the Iraqi people. Tattoos are among a number of Western trends that have crept into society here. Although US and British soldiers are largely responsible for introducing them to Iraqis, a number of refugees who spent time in more open Arab countries are helping to spread their popularity, despite legal and religious issues surrounding them. "Before the war, no one knew about the cultures from outside, but now so many people know about Western culture," says Kawakeb Salah Hamed, a sociology professor at Baghdad University. "Now, young people like to do almost anything they see in Western culture." Among US service members, tattoos are extremely popular, and as soldiers patrolled the streets or worked with Iraqi security forces, many locals took notice of their elaborate and colorful body art. At the same time, Iraqis who'd been exiled during the Saddam era and learned the business in Lebanon and Jordan began returning to open shops that offer Western-style designs. While the industry is still in early phases of development, the more advanced tattoos have attracted a wider spectrum of people than the handmade prison and Bedouin tattoos did. One Baghdad tattoo artist says he's inked everyone from doctors and businessmen to Army officers and unemployed youths. "In Saddam's time, people could not make tattoos," says Ali Naser Mohamed, a security contractor, who has both biceps covered in ink. He says he knew of at least one person jailed for six months for his Western-style tattoo. Tigers, dragons, and swords are popular. One artist even offers Metallica designs. Tariq al-Hemdani first saw Western tattoos when he sought refuge in Lebanon in 2005. He'd spent several years as a prisoner during Saddam's regime and "saw tattoos made with needles in prison, and I didn't want one," he says. "But when I saw how it was done with a machine in Lebanon, that made me want a tattoo." First he got a flower on his heart in honor of his girlfriend, still in Iraq. When he returned to Iraq in 2007, he got another tattoo of a snake wrapped around a sword at one of Baghdad's new tattoo parlors. Tattoos were never technically illegal in Iraq, but under Saddam they floated in legal limbo. "Nobody has been sent to prison because of a tattoo," says Tareq Hareb, head of the cultural law assembly. Still, while people with traditional designs were left alone, those with tattoos of people's names say they were harassed and even beaten by authorities who discovered their inked arms. Tattoo shops were not allowed. The treatment, whether official policy or not, led to a widespread consensus that tattoos were illegal. Today, much of that same uncertainty remains. Government employees and soldiers are the only groups that the law forbids from getting tattooed, but Mr. Hareb says this law is loosely enforced. Tattoos are technically forbidden by Islam, considered an unnecessary alteration of God's creation. However, given their place in traditional Arab culture, many Muslims overlook the rule. Given these concerns, tattoo artists operate largely in shadows, fearing unwanted attention from the government or Muslim fundamentalists. "Business is good here, but ... I'm afraid the police or Islamic extremists will try to shut me down," says one artist, speaking anonymously due to legal concerns. "I'd like to find another job, but I'm too old to change careers. This isn't like doing artwork for me anymore because of the stress. Now I'm just trying to make a living." Despite the confusion over the legality of tattoos, their cultural currency is strengthening. Tattooed Iraqis tend to conceal their designs in public, but when someone spots a cheetah on their bicep, now they say that the only harassment they receive is someone pestering them about where they can get one, too. "Everybody who sees my tattoos says they're beautiful. Nobody bothers me about it," Eagle says. After seeing his tattoo, Eagle says his wife wants a butterfly drawn on her shoulder. The only thing stopping her is that Baghdad's tattoo artists are men, and Eagle says it wouldn't be appropriate for another man to tattoo his wife. "Many men think it's appealing for women to have tattoos," says Mrs. Hamed, who adds that many of her female students with traditional tattoos are now embarrassed by their outmoded designs.