Iraqis stake hopes on election

Provincial vote seen as valid path to the future By Anthony Shadid The Washington Post updated 12:47 a.m. ET, Fri., Jan. 30, 2009 BAGHDAD, Jan. 29 - Shahbandar Cafe still stands, a testament to the resilience of the country and its capital, Baghdad, even if so much here has changed. Rebuilt after a March 2007 bombing, its blue columns are now brown and its walls an undefiled tan brick. Pictures of the last king, Faisal II, executed in a republican revolution, share space with portraits of the owner's four sons and grandson, killed in a sectarian war. Even the locale, forever Shahbandar to its denizens, a century-old establishment once the city's intellectual nexus, bears a new name: Martyrs' Cafe. As Iraq prepares to vote Saturday in its first election since 2005, the conversation has changed, too. The words of the cafe-goers, laced with proverbs and poetry, illustrate what may stand as the legacy of an election that will begin shaping a new political landscape, as the Obama administration prepares to withdraw U.S. troops. In a country long bedeviled by questions of legitimacy -- over the American presence, the constitution, a de facto sectarian and ethnic system, and the excesses of security forces of dubious loyalty -- elections have now won an enthusiastic if grudging fealty, emerging as a true arena for contest in which nearly every sect, ethnicity and tribe in the country has staked its future. In 2005, there was a chorus of agreement in Shahbandar. Customer after customer, each wearing a frayed jacket and sipping a cup of tea, insisted that the election itself was more important than the choice of candidates. The vote, simply by taking place, would mark the end of one Iraq. "Without elections, there will be tyranny," Kadhim Hassan, a writer, said then. "There's real competition this time around," Jassim Ismail, a retired teacher, said Thursday. "We're firing a bullet of mercy today at what's happened in the past." Saturday's vote marks perhaps the most competitive election in the country's history, as Iraqis choose the leadership of 14 of 18 provinces. Sunni Arabs largely boycotted the last vote, delivering Shiites and Kurds disproportionate power in some provinces, including Baghdad, Diyala and Nineveh. In predominantly Shiite southern Iraq and Sunni western Iraq, power coalesced around ostensibly religious parties, building on clandestine organizations in exile, underground networks under Saddam Hussein, support from Iran and other neighbors, and, occasionally, the end of a militiaman's gun. By 2006, internecine war had erupted, quieting only last year. In this election, every incumbent party faces spirited opposition. In all, more than 14,400 candidates on 400 lists will vie for 440 seats on the provincial councils. The results will undoubtedly lead to a country that is more representative but also more fractious, and in that, maybe more turbulent. In Anbar province, the region of western Iraq that was once the most lethal for the U.S. military, tribal figures and former insurgents are seeking to end the monopoly on power held by the Iraqi Islamic Party, one of the few Sunni groups that participated in the 2005 election. To ensure its survival, the party has tried to forge coalitions with those same tribes. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, forgoing the slogans of his Islamist past for a platform of law and order, is trying to curb the power of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, still one of the most ardently sectarian groups. It controls four of nine provinces in Iraq's predominantly Shiite south and insists it will capture at least as many this time. Competing with both of them are followers of the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose lieutenants have urged their constituents to vote for two lists of nominally independent candidates. Sunni Arab parties are seeking to mirror their constituents' numbers in Diyala province, northeast of Baghdad, where Kurds and Shiites captured a majority in 2005, when Sunni Arabs boycotted. They are seeking the same redress in Nineveh province in northern Iraq, the country's most dangerous region, where Kurds hold 31 of 37 seats. Across the country, slogans declare support for independents and intellectuals. Some secular parties, among them the Iraqiya list of former prime minister Ayad Allawi, are trying to build on a current of disgust, pronounced most loudly in cities, with the corruption-addled record of Islamist parties in southern and western Iraq. They hew to a narrative often heard and sometimes believed: The country's sectarianism will pass. The elections are by no means a panacea. In some ways, they have revealed a landscape perhaps more precarious than the one the United States inherited in 2003. Tribes, with archaic traditions, have become kingmakers, and Islamist parties, despite their unpopularity, have proved a singular ability to mobilize resources and followers. Some worry about the onset of warlords. Others worry about the Kurdish-Arab frontier, where borders with an autonomous Kurdish region have yet to be drawn. In the province around the disputed city of Kirkuk, the vote has been postponed indefinitely. The problems ahead remind some of the line by Mutanabi, a 10th-century poet, as haughty as he was brilliant, who gave his name to the street along Shahbandar Cafe. "Not all that a man longs for is within his reach. Gusts of wind can blow against the desires of ships' crews," goes the verse, known by heart by many here. Dragging on a water pipe, Ismail, the retired teacher, shook his head and quoted another line, from a more recent work by Abul Qasim al-Shabi, a Tunisian poet. "If the people one day decide to seek life, fate must respond," he recited from the bench he occupies every morning. "Night must clear, and the chains must break." "With all due respect to Mutanabi, of course," Ismail said. "But if we stay mired in the past, our wounds won't heal and we can't take a step forward." "Mkhayareen," added Naji Mahmoud, a 60-year-old retiree, "mu msayareen." Translated very loosely, it means the choice is ours. The 2007 explosion that tore through the warren of bookstores along Mutanabi Street devastated Shahbandar Cafe, itself an artifact of a more stately Baghdad. The street was rebuilt, a somewhat kitschy arcade of columns and terraces, inspired by a Levantine ethos and imbued with a Stalinist aesthetic. The cafe fared better, with its vaulted ceilings. New furniture of leather and wood occupies the places of the old samovars and antique brass decanters. Brick walls are adorned with pictures of Ottoman pashas, King Faisal and his heirs and a pontoon bridge across the Tigris in 1916. "Iraq is like a carpet that was torn," Ismail said, sitting under them. "Now we're mending it. If we can put each thread back in place, the artistry of its design can return." Ahmed Azz al-Din, a 33-year-old printer, interrupted. "It won't look the way it looked before," he said. Azz al-Din and others complained of the elections' corruption. Nearly everyone expects some fraud, and parties do little to conceal their vote-buying. Activists hand out blankets and stoves in parks. Outside Shahbandar, others distributed toys. A newspaper headline this week said a vote was going for about $100. When told that, a family in the neighborhood of Karrada grew indignant. They had received only the equivalent of $20. With the corruption have come jokes. The latest plays off the slogan of the Iraqi Islamic Party: "Your life has value." Value can be the same word for a traditional stew served on a Shiite holiday. "Your life," the joke goes, "amounts to stew and rice." But little beyond the fraud and jokes reminds anyone of the 2005 vote, when violence and its threat lurked menacingly over the process. Neither candidates' names nor their pictures were published, for fear they might be assassinated. Rallies were few, posters were torn down, and hardly anyone could describe a party's platform, much less its nominees. These days, conversations about possible alliances that will follow the election are as heated as those about the campaigns themselves. The old coalitions in Iraq have crumbled. Nearly every component of the Shiite alliance that dominated the vote in 2005 is running on its own. Maliki, courting the nationalist vote of fellow Arabs, has turned on his former Kurdish allies. Some politicians are imagining new coalitions that might arise, bringing together Maliki, tribes from Sunni and Shiite regions and even secularists. "Everyone knows the political map will change definitely," said Rafa al-Issawi, a Sunni politician and the deputy prime minister. "Everyone is waiting to see the results to rearrange their papers and to set up their alliances for the next elections." A breeze caught the ashes of Ismail's water pipe, as the end approached of what he refers to as his "official hours" at the cafe. "A beginning," he called Saturday's vote. "But my sense, and the sense of people I talk to, is that if they don't vote, then they're responsible for a situation that stays bad," he said, thumbing blue worry beads. Mahmoud, his friend, nodded. "Our ambition is to have even more choice." More on Iraq © 2009 The Washington Post Company URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28924565/

Iraqi Women Vie for Votes and Taste of Power

New York Times By SAM DAGHER BAGHDAD — Amal Kibash, a candidate for the Baghdad provincial council, is running a bold and even feverish campaign by most standards. With elections coming on Saturday, she is trolling for every vote she can muster. “You are going to vote for me, right?” she quizzed passers-by on a stroll recently through her neighborhood of Sadr City, which was until May a battleground for Shiite militias. Giant posters of her veil-framed face were draped on several buildings, some of which still bore the marks of recent fighting. In Basra, where until a year ago banners warned women that they would be shot if they wore too much makeup or ventured out of their homes without a veil, another female candidate, Ibtihal Abdul-Rahman, put up posters of herself last month. Encouraged by security improvements throughout the country, thousands of women are running for council seats in the provincial elections. Of the estimated 14,400 candidates, close to 4,000 are women. Some female candidates have had their posters splattered with mud, defaced with beards or torn up, but most have been spared the violence that has claimed the lives of two male candidates and a coalition leader since the start of the year. But on Wednesday, a woman working for the Iraqi Islamic Party was killed when gunmen burst into her house in Baghdad and shot her 10 times in the chest, according to an Interior Ministry official. For many of the female candidates, the elections offer a chance to inject some much needed fresh air into councils that are plagued by deep corruption and dominated by men and big political parties that are often ultraconservative. But even if they win, they face numerous hurdles, particularly the entrenched attitudes of most Iraqi men, who view women as either sex objects or child bearers who have no place in the rough-and-tumble arena of politics. “This is the mentality,” said Safia Taleb al-Suhail, a member of Parliament and the daughter of a prominent Shiite tribal leader assassinated by Saddam Hussein’s henchmen in Lebanon in 1994. “We have to change it. How can we change it? By fighting.” She is leading a group of female Parliament members who are lobbying to make sure that the same constitutional provision that mandates that 25 percent of all seats in Parliament go to women is applied to provincial councils as well. Currently, it is not. While Iraq in the 1950s was the first Arab country to name a female minister and adopt a progressive family law, the leadership aspirations of women were mostly quashed under Mr. Hussein’s macho government. The situation became further complicated for women after 2003, with the ascendance of religious parties. Ms. Suhail and others were instrumental in lobbying Iraq’s American administrator at the time, L. Paul Bremer III, to include the quota for women in the country’s first transitional constitution. It was preserved in the current Constitution because many felt that it was the only way to ensure the participation of women in a male-dominated culture. When it was published in October, the law regulating the provincial elections omitted the quota for women; it remains unclear whether the omission was deliberate or just an oversight. The electoral commission has ruled that the law as written is acceptable, saying that women are ensured of adequate representation by the requirement that a woman be chosen after every three men in any winning slate. But Ms. Suhail said that many of the candidate slates did not have enough women in them to meet that requirement, while other slates were made up of fewer than four candidates, all of whom are male. Mahdiya Abed-Hassan al-Lami, a women’s rights advocate, and candidate in Baghdad running on the slate of a former prime minister, Ibrahim Jaafari, said that while she supported the quota system, it has been manipulated by the major political parties, both secular and religious, to marginalize women. Most of the women chosen for the large candidate slates are there for their family and tribal connections and loyalty to the sect or party, she said, rather than for their qualifications. “If women are simply followers they cannot fulfill their roles properly,” said Ms. Lami, who is a teacher and a practicing Shiite. Her campaign has focused on reaching out to her network of women, particularly in some of the most destitute slums of Baghdad. Ms. Kibash, another female candidate who is running on Mr. Jaafari’s list, is currently a member of the Sadr City municipal council, but she and other women on the council are prevented by the men from sitting on the crucial and financially important Services Committee. She said the council was mired in corruption. Despite the recent gains in security, some women continue to face threats, while others say the whole thing is a charade and not worth the effort. Liza Hido sat on a municipal council but was forced to quit in 2006 after receiving threatening e-mail and text messages on her cellphone. She is running again this year but, still concerned for her safety, she is keeping her campaigning discreet, putting up no posters and making no public appearances. Instead, she restricts herself to private gatherings. Her friend Bushra al-Obeidi, a law professor at Baghdad University, has rebuffed all efforts to persuade her to become a candidate. She feels the odds are stacked against women, starting with laws she views as discriminatory and derogatory toward women — one allows a rapist to largely escape punishment if he marries his victim. Ms. Obeidi also has little faith in the commitment to gender equality among the current political leadership, which is dominated by religious parties. “I assure you,” she said, “they are against women. They are lying to us.” Ms. Suhail, the lawmaker, admitted that Iraqi women had failed so far to break into the top levels of the political power structure but said that this was no reason to give up.

Obama pleads with Iran to work together

PATHETIC 'MESSAGE' By AMIR TAHERI January 29, 2009 -- IN his "first message to the Muslim world" Tuesday, President Obama on Al-Arabiya TV invited the Is lamic Republic in Iran to "unclench its fist" and accept his offer of "un conditional talks." A few hours later, after Obama had appeared on the Saudi-owned satellite-TV channel, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a crowd of militants that no talks are possible unless the United States met a set of conditions. He demanded a formal apology for unspecified US "crimes" against Iran and the Islamic world. The crucial condition, however, was that America should withdraw its troops from other countries, "taking them back to their own territory." The contrast couldn't have been greater. Obama tried to be as conciliatory as possible - asking only for an "unclenching" of the Iranian fist - a change of style. Ahmadinejad asked for concrete US moves, notably a global military retreat that would leave the Middle East at Tehran's mercy. In the understatement of the year, Obama said: "Iran has acted in ways not conducive to peace and prosperity in the region." He also claimed that Iran's support for terrorists, though "not helpful," is a thing of the past - yet Tehran was running guns to Hezbollah and Hamas even as he spoke. ON Al-Arabiya, Obama did something more interest ing: He cast himself in the role of a bridge between America and the Muslim world, a kind of honest broker between two camps in conflict. To hammer in the point, he recalled the Muslim part of his own family background and his childhood in Muslim Indonesia - a topic he'd carefully avoided during the campaign. He also asserted that America is a land of "Muslims, Christians, Jews" and others - making sure to mention Muslims first. At times, Obama sounded like a marriage counselor. He said his job is to communicate to Americans that "the Muslim world is full of extraordinary people who simply want to live their lives and see their children live better lives." On the other hand, he said, he'd also tell the Muslims that "Americans are not your enemy." Obama looked to the past rather than the future to give such platitudes a tinge of political vision. He said he wanted a return "to the same respect and partnership that America had with the Muslim world as recently as 20 or 30 years ago." The problem is that few people in the Muslim world will welcome his back-to-the-future approach. Thirty years ago, Obama was a teenager in Indonesia. Vice President Joseph Biden, however, was already a senator and a champion of President Jimmy Carter's strategic retreat. What was happening during what Obama seems to regard as the "golden age" of Carter's leadership? US diplomats were held hostage in Tehran and daily humiliated with mock executions. Soviet troops were annexing Afghanistan to the Evil Empire. Saddam Hussein was preparing to invade Iran, starting an eight-year war that claimed a million lives. Mecca was under siege by the ideological antecedents of Osama bin Laden. Syrian troops were preparing to march into Lebanon. OTHER features of this "golden age": the seizure of power by mullahs in Tehran, the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, the coming to power of communists in the Horn of Africa, the military coup in Turkey, the first Islamist terror attacks in Algeria, unprecedented waves of repression in Egypt and Saudi Arabia and the imposition of military rule in Pakistan. During the same period, and its immediate aftermath, dozens of Americans from many walks of life were seized as hostages and sometimes brutally murdered in several Muslim countries. The US ambassador in Sudan was murdered; the CIA station chief in Beirut abducted, taken to Tehran and killed under torture. A similarly dark picture could be drawn of the situation 20 years ago, when America was arming the mujahedin in Afghanistan while Saddam Hussein was preparing to invade Kuwait. And the first President George Bush was then trying to court the Iranian mullahs in much the same way as Obama is trying today. But the mullahs were training and arming Hezbollah units in Lebanon and opening channels to Palestinian radicals who would soon re-emerge as Hamas. Saddam was gassing thousands of Kurds to death, while Turkey was dragged into a full-scale war on Kurdish communist secessionists. Meanwhile, the Libyan terror network was killing American GIs in Europe and blowing up US jetliners over Western skies. No - that was no golden age, either. THE truth is that the Middle East is not much better off than at any time since its emergence as a geopolitical unit after World War I. Thanks to the transformation of America from a power guaranteeing the deadly status quo into one that supports reform and change, the region has started to experience new currents of democratization. Afghanistan and Iraq have been liberated, their peoples given a chance to build new systems of their own choice. The Syrians have been kicked out of Lebanon. Libya has been disarmed. Egypt has been forced to allow multiparty presidential elections. More than a dozen Arab states have adopted constitutions and introduced some form of electoral politics. Kuwaiti women have won the right to vote and get elected. Iran's democratic forces are encouraged to launch their campaign against the mullahs. The Islamists have been roundly defeated in Algeria, Egypt, Yemen and Saudi Arabia. For the first time, the question of democracy is top of the political agenda in virtually every Muslim state. Obama should remember that he is the president of the United States - not an impartial broker. It was unfortunate that he described himself as a bridge. For a bridge has no personality of its own and cares little about who might cross it and in which direction. IF this was meant as the first direct contact between Obama and the Mus lim world, the Al-Arabiya interview must be rated as a missed opportunity. Obama's remarks about the Israel-Palestine issue were so trite as to merit no analysis. He said he was sending former Sen. George Mitchell to listen to all sides - as if the world has not been hearing their stories for more than six decades. The president appeared apologetic, offering no hope for democratization and economic development. He made no mention of the economic meltdown that is creating unprecedented mass unemployment in many countries of the region. Nor did he offer any support to democratic forces facing crucial elections in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Egypt and Algeria this year. He had nothing to say about the thousands of Iranian workers who have been thrown into prison solely because they created independent trade unions. Nor did he mention Iranian women's courageous "a million signatures campaign" or the series of student revolts that have been crushed by the mullahs with exceptional violence. Nor was there any nod toward reformers in Saudi Arabia and Egypt or the heroic Lebanese democratic leaders who are fighting to preserve their nation's independence from Iran and Syria. Obama didn't call for the release of the tens of thousands of political prisoners held in more than two dozen Muslim countries or a moratorium on executions that each year cost the lives of hundreds of dissidents. CASTING himself in the role of a "bridge" and dreaming of a return to an illusionary past, Obama appeared unsure of his own identity and confused about the role that America should play in global politics. And that is bad news for those who believe that the United States should use its moral, economic and political clout in support of democratic forces throughout the world.

Early Voting in Iraq Is Mostly Smooth

New York Times reporting from Baghdad. Kind of funny how the Times claimed two years ago the war was a dismal failure- and all of a sudden there are completely peaceful national democratic elections with better monitoring than in American elections. By TIMOTHY WILLIAMS and STEVEN LEE MYERS BAGHDAD — Thousands of soldiers, police officers, hospital patients and prisoners cast ballots on Wednesday as part of early voting in Iraq’s provincial elections. At least one act of violence accompanied the voting. Two police officers guarding a polling center south of Kirkuk were killed by gunmen who fired at them from a passing car, according to an official from the Ministry of Interior who spoke on condition of anonymity. The gunmen escaped, the official said. Overall, however, the voting appeared to go smoothly, Iraqi election officials said. About 615,000 people, most of them employed by Iraq’s security forces, were eligible to vote Wednesday, three days before Saturday’s election. Government officials said the early balloting would help ensure that security forces would be on duty to protect polling stations on Saturday, when about 14 million more Iraqis are eligible to vote. “The arrangements we are seeing today are a slap in the face to those who are betting that Iraqis will not go to the ballot box because they are despairing,” Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki said in a speech on Wednesday. More than 14,000 candidates are running for 440 seats on provincial councils in 14 of Iraq’s 18 provinces. The election will be delayed in Kirkuk Province, a troubled region where much of Iraq’s oil reserves lie, and in the three provinces of Kurdistan, a semiautonomous region. The local councils function much like state legislatures, but are also responsible for selecting governors and provincial police chiefs. Perhaps most important, the councils are a prime source of patronage. They dole out government jobs, social benefits and contracts, each an invaluable asset in a country that has high unemployment rates and significant poverty — but that is expected to embark on a major government-sponsored rebuilding program over the next few years. In Iraq, unaccustomed to democratic exercises, the line between the official and the political is often blurred. Some members of the Iraqi police found themselves in a quandary because the man to whom they owe their allegiance — Jawad al-Bolani, the minister of the interior — is running candidates against those aligned with the prime minister. “It is so confusing,” said Haider Raheem, a 32-year-old policeman in Hilla, a city south of Baghdad. In the Karrada district of Baghdad, soldiers and police streamed steadily into the Furat (or Euphrates) Middle School, a worn, dusty building where posters encouraged voting: “Register. Vote. Make the Change.” By late afternoon, more than half of the 4,000 people eligible to vote early at the school had done so, said Adel Jabbar, a 38-year-old poll monitor. Above the doorways to each room that had been set aside for voting, signs were hung forbidding cell phones, cameras, smoking and weapons. Mr. Jabbar reported no problems. But in Samarra, Zaher Jasmin, a local manager for Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission, said fewer than half of the 4,000 police officers he had expected to cast ballots Wednesday had done so an hour before polls closed. After talking with their higher-ups, he said that the officers’ work had been deemed more important than voting. “They have duties in very far away and dangerous places,” he said, “and they have not received permission to leave their posts to vote.”

Ahmadinejad's Holocaust Speech

[Michael Rubin] From today's Iran News Round Up, and translated by Ali Alfoneh, here is Ahmadinejad's message to the "Holocaust, the Holy Lie of the West" held at Sharif University in Tehran: "A brief review of the events after World War II shows that the Holocaust issue - with the dimensions they define for it - is an excuse to continue dominance and expansion of influence of the victors, especially America and Britain in the international arena. But the important issue to which I invite the dear participants and researchers is that the result of Holocaust is not only the filthy genealogy of the Zionist regime, but has had greater implications. Today the Zionists command many centers of power, wealth and the world media and unfortunately they have enthralled many politicians and political parties. The illegal Zionist regime is one of the results of the Holocaust issue, despite the fact that many people of the world engaged in the war died, a number reaching 65 million. The power-seeking political network has demanded blood money of some victims...and have used some of this money to establish a Zionist regime in the land of Palestine, and have used this excuse to attack Palestine and by killing and displacing the people from their motherland they have occupied their mother land and established a Zionist regime, which is tasked with the job of denying an Islamic power emerging to counter the West. They do so because they consider the Islamic civilization and culture with its natural creativity as a threat to their injustice and bullying. This is the foundation and philosophy behind formation of the Zionist regime and today, those who live in the occupied lands of this regime are partly indigenous people of Palestine, and some of them immigrants from America, Asia and some from Europe. Most of them are not - even according to the Holocaust logic - war survivors. Unfortunately during the past sixty years they have not allowed anyone to question the Holocaust logic and its principle, since should this truth be revealed, there is nothing [but] the logic of Iranian democracy. The Holocaust is knitted together with liberal democracy. It is the claimants of liberal democracy who support the Holocaust logic and have sanctified it to the degree that no one dares questioning its sanctity. Breaking into and opening the safe of Holocaust is the same as cutting the life line of the Zionist regime, which also demolishes its philosophical foundation. In this way, they plunder interests and wealth of the nations and violate their freedom. They also violate humane and cultural values through networks of corruption. I ask the scholars, thinkers, the youth and dear students who are the vanguard not only to attend to the Holocaust issue, but also its effects and results and share the result of their research with the nations. Also, do not forget that the Zionist network which has created the Holocaust discourse must be made known to the nations..." Of course, the failure to make progress in diplomacy with Iran was all because of a lack of flexibility and desire on Bush's part and had absolutely nothing at all to do with the Iranian leaderships philosophy and world view. Fortunately, with Obama's election, all problems in U.S.-Iran relations have simply evaporated, and now all that's left to do is make whatever concessions are required and we can have peace in our time."

Obama and Iraq- The risks of a premature U.S. withdrawal

In a week of symbolic breaks with the ancien regime, President Obama called in U.S. war commanders last Wednesday to signal his desire to get out of Iraq. Then, meeting over, he issued a vague statement about planning "a responsible military drawdown" that omitted mention of his campaign promise to pull out within 16 months. APFor Iraq's sake, long may such obfuscation reign. The country faces big tests in the coming year, starting with provincial elections on Saturday. Robust American engagement guided Iraq out of its bloodiest days in 2006. The military commanders who implemented the successful surge now counsel against hasty withdrawal, lest those gains be lost. This is a potential win-win for Mr. Obama. If Iraq emerges from 2009 as a stronger democracy, the White House could then reduce troop levels with little risk of relapse. The President, who prospered in the Democratic primaries thanks to his antiwar stance, will reap the strategic benefit. Let historians appreciate the irony. The 146,000 U.S. troops still in Iraq today are needed less to end violence than as glue for a still fragile polity. The GIs are the honest brokers in an Iraq recovering from vicious sectarian fighting, and they are crucial to building a steadily improving Iraqi Army. To withdraw in 16 months, the U.S. would have to start immediately to rotate out a brigade roughly each month, taking its eye off those crucial missions. The Opinion Journal Widget Download Opinion Journal's widget and link to the most important editorials and op-eds of the day from your blog or Web page. Why take that risk now, of all times? After Saturday's local elections, the majority Shiites will willingly share power with Sunnis, who boycotted the last poll in 2005. Sunnis have chosen to come back into the fold through the ballot box, along the way helping to give birth to vibrant retail politics. Some 14,000 candidates from 400 parties battle for 440 seats on 14 (of 18) provincial councils. There will also be a referendum on the U.S.-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement this summer, and parliamentary elections by the end of the year. In Today's Opinion Journal REVIEW & OUTLOOK World Bank OmertaSpeaker Nancy Malthus TODAY'S COLUMNISTS Main Street: Obama Should Acknowledge His Roots – William McGurnGlobal View: Guantanamo Is No Blot on U.S. Honor – Bret Stephens COMMENTARY Animal Spirits Depend on Trust – Robert J. ShillerCorporate Tax Cuts Should Be Part of the Stimulus – Stephen J. EntinLet's Have Flexible Armed Forces – Mackubin Thomas OwensEconomic Policy Will Have to Be Very Agile – Marina v.N. WhitmanAmerican GIs can make sure these elections come off smoothly and are accepted broadly as legitimate. The current campaign has seen an uptick in suicide attacks and bombings, showing that diehard Sunni insurgents and Iran-backed militias still want to sabotage democracy in Mesopotamia. Iran lost its fight to stop the U.S. forces deal last year and is sure to try again. A Shiite democracy on its border is an existential rebuke to the mullahs. Military commanders are bracing for Iran to stir up trouble in the months ahead, particularly in the south. By helping Iraq resist this powerplay, Mr. Obama will only strengthen his hand for his promised diplomacy with Tehran. General Ray Odierno, the commander in Iraq, says the U.S. will be able to pull out two, possibly three, of 14 brigades in 2009, assuming all goes well. Last year's forces agreement obliges cuts. By summer, American combat forces are supposed to be out of the cities, and out of the country by the end of 2011, well in time for the next U.S. Presidential election. The new Administration may still be tempted to pull out in bigger numbers sooner -- both to appease its antiwar left and spend less on defense. Another argument is that the U.S. can't beef up in Afghanistan without quick reductions in Iraq. As a matter of arithmetic, that's broadly correct. But before a larger force can do much good in Afghanistan the U.S. needs a plan for deploying it. Here's the lose-lose scenario: Allow Iraq to deteriorate by withdrawing too soon and push into Afghanistan without a better strategy. Mr. Obama has inherited a victory in Iraq that he can't afford to squander.

Hamas determined to control rebuilding in Gaza

Is there any more delusional and psychotic leadership in the world worse than Hamas? 4:00AM Monday Jan 26, 2009 Peter BeaumontPalestinian Mohammed Hamouda's house in Jebaliya has been reduced to rubble by the Israeli strikes. A bitter struggle is taking place over the right to oversee the reconstruction of Gaza, even as the leadership of Hamas emerges from the rubble of areas that were devastated by 23 days of Israeli bombardment. The international community insists it cannot channel billions of dollars in reconstruction aid to Hamas, and is calling for the involvement of the more moderate Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas. But Hamas is insisting on sole control of Gaza's rebuilding, as well as claiming moral leadership of the Palestinian people. In the week since Israel and Hamas declared unilateral ceasefires to end more than three weeks of fighting, in which almost 1500 Gazans died, the movement has acted rapidly to assert its control over assistance to civilians. Sitting on huge cash reserves, Hamas has said it will begin distributing emergency payments of 4000 ($9760) to those who have lost homes, and has already been handing out coupons for food as well as aid, some of it seized from foreign and international donors. The role of Hamas in the reconstruction effort, and the group's tense relations with Abbas and his Fatah movement, have come to permeate every corner of Gaza's bruised and bloodied society. At the al-Filisteen mosque in the Rimal area of Gaza City, the imam was preaching the necessity of brotherhood and unity. But senior Hamas officials are demanding that the conditions for reconciliation should include an end to negotiations with Israel and to the peace process, a unity agreement under a banner of "resistance", and continued Hamas control of Gaza. "Everyone recognises the need for reconciliation among Palestinians," said Hamas' Economics Minister Abu Rushdi Zaza. "It will happen immediately if the Palestine Liberation Organisation [dominated by Fatah] can be rebuilt. But it must be understood that Hamas is the government. If international institutions want to do rebuilding projects in Gaza, then that is fine - but they must do it under our supervision. "Ramallah [the West Bank city that is Abbas' seat of government] has no authority here." Zaza's comments were echoed last week by other Hamas figures on the West Bank as well, who accused Abbas' Administration of in effect siding with Israel in the war against Hamas by ordering the continuing campaign of arrests aimed at Hamas figures and banning demonstrations in support of the Islamic organisation. Yazid Khader, a spokesman for the movement, called for the release of hundreds of Hamas prisoners from Palestinian jails, and reiterated that only Hamas could be responsible for rebuilding Gaza. "We call this the battle of reconstruction. And Hamas and the resistance organisations are the only ones that can be in charge. No one else." Mahmoud Musleh, a Palestinian Legislative Council member aligned with Hamas, said: "The organisation that should be talking for the Palestinian people is the PLO. But it has not been speaking. If it does not rehabilitate itself, there will be dramatic changes. At present it does not represent the Palestinian people. They do not own the power. There is a new balance of power emerging. For the first time, through the steadfastness of the resistance in Gaza, we have seen Israel's project halted." Other Hamas supporters said that, in standing on the sidelines for the first time in its history while other Palestinians fought, the PLO had revoked its claim to lead the Palestinian struggle. Even those regarded as Hamas moderates, such as Ghazi Hamad, was sceptical about how reconciliation could be achieved. Describing how he saw a future Palestinian policy towards Israel, he said: "My personal position is that it needs to be mixed. You cannot have resistance without politics, or politics without resistance." Gazan political analyst Talal Okal said: "There is a feeling in Hamas that they won a victory. They want this victory to be represented in any reconciliation talks with Fatah. They think they should set the agenda. They have been trying to do it by force, both during the war and afterwards. They want to show that they control Gaza." Hamas's greatest problem is likely to come not from Fatah but from ordinary Gazans. Hamas may have access to hundreds of millions of dollars, smuggled through the tunnels under the Rafah crossing, which are now operating again. But as Faisal Abu Shalah, a Fatah member of the legislative council for Gaza points out, while Hamas insists on controlling the reconstruction, Israel will not lift its economic blockade. And if one place is the symbol of the destruction wreaked in Gaza, it is the demolished houses of the Samouni family in Zeitoun. A member of the family, who lost his father and his son, asks not to be identified for fear of being beaten by Hamas - as others were during the war - for criticising them. "No one from Hamas has come to offer us help. None of the leaders has been here. We were farmers, not fighters with a militant faction." He pulls out a crumpled photograph showing a wedding scene. "This was my father. This, my son. After what happened to us here, I hate the name Hamas."

Iraqi voters show preference for can-do over creed

An emerging backlash against rule by religious parties gives opening to technocrats in Jan. 31 provincial elections. By Jane Arraf | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor from the January 23, 2009 edition Baghdad - Mohamed al-Rubeiy, the image of a prosperous businessman in a dark blue suit and gold watch, beams from thousands of posters plastered on walls advertising his run for a seat in Iraq's provincial elections. The liberal, middle-aged businessman is running a campaign that he says was inspired by Barack Obama – blending American-style tactics with traditional Iraqi politics – and is emblematic of what appears to be a groundswell against rule by religious parties. "There has been a backlash," says Adnan Pachachi, a former Iraqi foreign minister and now a member of parliament. Mr. Rubeiy is affiliated with his party. "There has been so much corruption because the religious parties got people who were not qualified to run the ministries.... It's really been a bitter disappointment in some places because they say we voted for them and they did nothing." An Iraqi government-funded opinion poll recently found that nearly one-third of voters surveyed listed improving local services as their biggest priority. Almost half preferred secular over religious candidates. Rubeiy is one of more than 4,400 candidates competing for 440 provincial council seats in 14 (out of 18) Iraqi provinces. The vote, with its much larger participation by Sunni parties than the last election, is expected to redraw Iraq's political map in many places and pave the way for a redistribution of power in national elections at the end of the year. Rubeiy is counting on the religious backlash – and studying Mr. Obama's political playbook. "I was very affected by President Obama when he spoke with people in the debates," says the Romanian-educated engineer, brimming with enthusiasm. So affected, he challenged one of his rivals, the mayor of Baghdad, to debate him. Thursday's face-off, he says, was the first of its kind in Baghdad. "Obama, in his debate, brought many people in his direction and when he talked about change ... [and] that's what I needed to start my campaign for the provincial council," says Rubeiy. It also led to the slogan on the larger-than-life posters being unrolled by some of the 500 young volunteers at his office on a recent afternoon in Baghdad's Karrada district: "Vote for the path of change." "I pay from my pocket – I don't put money in my pocket," he tells a meeting of more than 100 sheikhs in the Zafaraniya district, a message he will deliver dozens more times before the Jan. 31 election. "I didn't ask for your votes in 2005, but I need them now." A liberal Shiite, first appointed by US authorities as head of the Karrada City Council in 2003 and then elected to the post, Rubeiy had a dismal showing when he ran for provincial council four years ago. He's learned since then. "I ran in the 2005 elections as an independent liberal and got 10,000 votes. I needed 36,000," says Rubeiy. This election, he is still an independent but affiliated with a list of candidates symbolically headed by Ayad Allawi, the first head of the US-installed provisional government in 2003. Under Iraq's revamped electoral system voters will be able to vote for individuals as well as lists. Rubeiy is counting on what appears to be a nostalgic appeal for Mr. Allawi – a secular strongman who did poorly in the last national elections when religious parties swept the slate – as well as his own personal standing. On Wednesday afternoon, Rubeiy's campaign "operations room" is filled with soccer players – half from his home neighborhood of Karrada and half from Sadr City – the Shiite stronghold. The movement loyal to radical Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is not formally fielding candidates in the elections, leaving hundreds of thousands of votes up for grabs. "I voted last time for the Shiite list but they don't care about younger people," says Tariq Muwat, one of Rubeiy's volunteers from Sadr City. "They promised us a lot but we didn't get anything," says Mr. Murat, 35 and unemployed. He is one of hundreds of young men and women – Shiites, Sunnis, and Christians – working on Rubeiy's campaign. Rubeiy, the son of a prominent sheikh and one of 11 brothers and three sisters from his father's four wives, turned to his brothers to help finance his campaign. So far, he says, he's spent 100 million Iraqi dinars (about $80,000). At a tribal lunch Wednesday in Zafaraniya, his aides hand out gold-plated watches and glossy brochures listing his achievements to the assembled guests. Rubeiy's host, Sheikh Ismael al-Juhaishi, is Sunni and the guests are mixed. After three years of sectarian fighting, religion appears to have receded as an issue here – replaced by the more pressing preoccupations of electricity shortages and rampant unemployment. "People are saying for the first time they want technocrats," says a Baghdad-based diplomat. "They're fed up with religious parties who haven't been able to deliver services." And that's what Rubeiy keeps reminding potential supporters. "I've served you for five years," he tells the rows of sheikhs fingering their prayer beads before platters of lamb and rice arrive. "There were no services here, no sewage or water." "He's served us well," agrees Sheikh Ali Ahmed al-Bayati. "If we ask for things – like projects or help with displaced people, he gets them done." This year, campaigning falls during the 40 days of mourning for the death of Imam Hussein and election posters compete for space with Shiite flags on buildings, concrete walls and intersections. Even many traditional Shiite candidates are highlighting their nonreligious credentials. "People know me for my faith and my scientific qualifications," says Tunis Farhan Aziz, a lawyer on the list of the First Martyr Sadr, named for Moqtada Sadr's uncle the Ayatollah Mohammad Bakr Sadr, executed by Saddam Hussein. "We need to build a strong economy with different facets.... We will try to fix the mistakes that happened before. Hisham al-Suhail, deputy commissioner of the Iraqi High Electoral Commission, estimates security has improved by more than 90 percent in all provinces besides Mosul and Diyala. He says this election, the first held in a fully sovereign Iraq, will be largely free of widespread allegations of voter registration fraud in the previous vote. "We will avoid the problems of previous elections," he says. "This election is controlled purely by Iraqi hands." http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0123/p01s01-wome.html

Fitch warns Russia on reserves, eyes IMF on Ukraine

LONDON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Further large falls in Russia's foreign exchange reserves would make a downgrade of its credit rating more likely, Fitch Ratings head of Emerging European sovereigns Edward Parker said on Thursday. Speaking at a conference in London, Parker also said a further downgrade for Ukraine would depend on an IMF assessment of the country scheduled for February. Russia's foreign exchange reserves have fallen from around $600 billion last year to below $400 billion, figures published on Thursday showed, partially due to spending by the central bank on easing the rouble's more than 20 percent fall. Russia has also said it will have to fund a large budget deficit next year, due to the impact on its economy of falling oil prices. "Large weekly losses in (Russia's) foreign exchange reserves are a concern," Parker told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference. "They have still got a lot of ammunition and in some sense this is what reserves are for. But even at $400 billion they are a finite resource. "We will continue to watch those weekly numbers very carefully. Further large losses make it more likely that we would downgrade the country," he added. He said a further cut in Ukraine's rating would be highly likely if the IMF report showed it failing on its commitments under the terms of a bailout agreed last year. "The IMF bailout certainly helped, but in our view it is not of overwhelming size, given Ukraine's external financing requirement. It is based on pretty optimistic assumptions and it is subject to political and execution risk," Parker said. Fitch downgraded Ukraine to "B+" from "BB-" with a negative outlook on Oct. 17, citing rising risks to its financial system. "The IMF is scheduled to review the programme in mid-February. And if it was to go off track, then I think there is a high likelihood we would downgrade Ukraine's rating again."

Israel Scored a Tactical Victory

But it missed a chance to finish off Hamas.By BRET STEPHENS On the Gaza border Atop a little hill near the beleaguered Israeli town of Sderot, a gaggle of TV crews train their cameras on the Gaza Strip, sentinels to a unilateral Israeli cease-fire that's barely 12 hours old. Earlier the same day, Sunday, Hamas fired 20 rockets into Israel, raising questions about its intentions but causing little serious damage. Later, a pair of Israeli F-15s streak over Gaza City, releasing bursts of chaff but dropping no bombs. And then comes word that Hamas has declared its own conditional, week-long cease-fire. The TV people clear out. All wars eventually end. The question most Israelis are asking is whether this one has merely gone on vacation. So why are the top echelons of Israel's political and military establishment delighted by the war's result? Long answer: They think that Israel has re-established a reputation for invincibility tarnished in the 2006 war with Hezbollah; that they bloodied and humiliated Hamas while taking few casualties; that they called overdue international attention to the tunnels Hamas uses to smuggle its arsenal; and, with the unilateral cease-fire, that they put the onus to end the violence squarely back on Hamas's shoulders. Short answer: They think the war may be a regional game changer. In a wide-ranging interview, a senior military official offers perhaps the most authoritative explanation of his government's war aims and his interpretation of its effects. "We have no desire to go back into Gaza," he says. "We decided we're not going to spend five years [in Gaza] like the five years Americans spent in Iraq." The Opinion Journal Widget Download Opinion Journal's widget and link to the most important editorials and op-eds of the day from your blog or Web page. On the contrary: Far from seeking regime change in Gaza, the official seems at ease that the Palestinians will remain bifurcated between Hamastan and Fatahland for many years more, the way Germany was divided during the Cold War. The idea is that a Hamas state in Gaza -- somehow deterred from mischief -- could become a kind of useful negative example to the Palestinians of the West Bank, somewhat in the way East Germany served West Germany as a monument to everything that was wrong with communism. This leads the official to his second remarkable comment, after I ask whether Israel deliberately chose not to kill Ismail Haniyeh, the elected Palestinian prime minister and Hamas's political leader in Gaza. "Israel tried to target people from the security apparatus and military wing," he answers. "At this moment, we prefer that the less-radical wing will take over." The current divisions within Hamas are not the only ones the official sees as a consequence of the war. Palestinians, he says, no longer look to Hamas as the party of clean and competent government. Instead, they see a group whose leaders needlessly provoked a ruinous war they didn't have the courage to fight themselves. No wonder the third intifada in the West Bank, on which Hamas had counted, never materialized. Elsewhere, Hamas's former patrons in the Arab world have split with the group ever since it became a client of Tehran. A dozen Arab states, along with the Palestinian Authority, boycotted an emergency summit of the Arab League, which had been intended as a show of support for Hamas supremo Khaled Mashal. Then there is Egypt. For years, it took an ambivalent view of Hamas: partly worried by the threat it poses to its own secular regime, partly delighted by the trouble it causes Israel. Now the Mubarak government at last understands that Hamas is also a strategic threat to Egypt. "An Iranian base can play against Egypt the same way it played against Israel," says the official. Almost as an aside, he adds that the timing of Israel's operation in Gaza was dictated in part by the assessment that Hamas was just months away from obtaining longer-range missiles that could reach Cairo as easily as Tel Aviv. In Today's Opinion Journal REVIEW & OUTLOOK The Opacity of HopeHolder for Wiretaps TODAY'S COLUMNISTS Main Street: Bush's Real Sin Was Winning in Iraq – William McGurn COMMENTARY An Inauguration for the People – John Steele GordonHistory Will Remember Bush Well – Marc A ThiessenWill Obama Bring Home the Neocons? – Gabriel SchoenfeldCongress Wants to Restrict Drug Access – Scott GottliebNow the Israeli government is prepared to believe that the Egyptians will finally clamp down on the smuggling. Israel might even allow Egypt to deploy its army in greater force in the Sinai, despite the provisions against it in the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty. Finally there is Iran. "They have drawn a lesson," says the official. "Once again, they saw that Israel has a good air force and good intelligence, and that the combination of the two can be deadly. Unlike in 2006, they saw a well-trained ground force. They found that asymmetrical warfare does not always play for them; that we can use asymmetrical approaches to overpower an asymmetrical threat." All this, of course, could be overturned the moment Iran goes nuclear and attempts to thwart Israel's freedom of action. Nor is it foreordained that Israel will enjoy the relatively favorable international circumstances that facilitated the past three weeks of war, or that Hamas will perform poorly the next time. "Usually, the one who loses does his homework better," observes the official. Bottom line: Israel has scored an impressive tactical victory. But it has missed the strategic opportunity to rid itself of the menace on its doorstep. In the Middle East, opportunities don't always knock twice.

Afghan insurgent tactics shift to dodge airstrikes

By Tom Vanden Brook, USA TODAY BAGRAM AIR BASE, Afghanistan — Afghan insurgents have learned to attack U.S. troops and scatter before they can be hit by airstrikes, a change in tactics that creates new pressure on coalition ground forces, say defense officials and military experts. Insurgents "have a pretty good idea of how long it takes for close-air support to arrive," Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said. "We've seen some indications that they will fight for as long as they believe they have until close-air support will likely arrive on the scene." Military records show U.S. aircraft conducted a record number of aerial raids over Afghanistan in 2008 but dropped fewer bombs and missiles than they did in 2007. The changing insurgent tactics have the potential to limit the effectiveness of air power and put more pressure on U.S. and coalition ground troops, said Loren Thompson, a military analyst at the Lexington Institute. "The war in Afghanistan is not the kind of conflict where air power can be used to maximum advantage," he said. Finding insurgents "has proven devilishly difficult, and in Afghanistan that often requires sending ground troops to flush them out." There are now about 32,000 U.S. and 28,000 coalition forces in Afghanistan. Military leaders, including Gen. David McKiernan, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, say the U.S. presence will grow to about 60,000 troops and could stay that size for four years. Intercepted insurgent communications confirm they fear the airstrikes, which hit a record number in 2008, said Air Force Brig. Gen. Michael Holmes, commander of the 455th Air Expeditionary Wing here. In one instance, he said, militants retreated from an ambush, saying, " 'No, stop. The birds are back.' " McKiernan said insurgents realize the propaganda value of civilian deaths, so they often attack coalition troops from areas crowded with civilians. "When the insurgency creates those casualties, they do it on purpose to create fear and intimidation to support their ambition," McKiernan said. Coalition jets flew 19,603 close-air support missions in Afghanistan in 2008 and dropped bombs or fired missiles 3,369 times, about 17% of the time. In 2007, coalition aircraft flew 13,965 missions and dropped munitions 3,572 times, or about 26% of the time. Airstrikes likely will increase in 2009 as U.S. forces push into areas held by the Taliban and other militants, says Tom Ehrhard, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and retired Air Force colonel. That raises the potential for more accidents. Ehrhard also predicts an increasing need for surveillance, supply and medical evacuation flights. Demand for aircraft that collect intelligence rose 44% in 2008 in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Air Force data. The watchdog organization Human Rights Watch reported in September that airstrikes in Afghanistan inadvertently had killed more than 650 civilians since 2006. That pales in comparison to the more than 3,000 Afghan civilians killed in deliberate attacks by insurgents. The group also reported last year that insurgents hid among civilians and used them as "shields" from airstrikes. The rugged, expansive terrain of Afghanistan makes it impossible to fight without airstrikes, says Marc Garlasco, a military analyst at Human Rights Watch and former intelligence analyst at the Pentagon. Although he expects more bombing in 2009, Garlasco says civilian casualties can be minimized with an effective counterinsurgency strategy.

Poll shows high turnout in Iraq elections

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 09:41:06 GMT An opinion poll suggests a high turnout in the Iraqi provincial elections. Nearly three fourth of Iraqis say they will take part in the January 31 provincial elections, an Iraqi government-sponsored poll shows. According to a government-sponsored National Media Centre (NMC) survey published on Monday, more than 73% of those questioned said they would participate in the upcoming regional elections. "Among the provinces, Karbala had the highest would-be participation rate with around 85 percent and the lowest was in Najaf," said NMC supervisor Ali Hadi Mohammed. "Thirty percent of those who said that they would participate said that they are doing it as a national duty, 20 percent are doing it because they have candidates they trust and 19 percent said they will vote in the hope of improving the provincial councils' performances," he explained. The survey also revealed that 42 percent of eligible voters would be ready to cast ballots for secular nominees; 31 percent said they prefer candidates backed by religious parties. According to the NMC, the respondents were randomly selected from a range of faiths and ethnicities. Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) is responsible for preparing and conducting elections to be held on January 31 in 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces. The country's last provincial and parliamentary elections were held four years ago. In a Monday statement, top Iraqi cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani urged people to vote in the Jan. 31 provincial elections. Al-Sistani asked voters to "screen and check who's qualified" and to choose candidates who possess the "qualifications, integrity and loyalty to serve the people." The top United Nations envoy in Iraq, Staffan de Mistura, called on the Iraqi government to guarantee safe and democratic provincial elections.

Obama's rise inspires African Iraqis in politics

By Aamer Madhani, USA TODAY ZUBAYR, Iraq — In this dusty town with a large population of Iraqis of African decent, the rise of President-elect Barack Obama spurred a simple question: If he can, why can't we? For many years, the black residents of Zubayr say, they have lived a second-class existence in Basra province, an area where Africans were first brought as slaves about 1,500 years ago. They hold no political office, often live in crippling poverty and are still sometimes referred to as "slaves" by other Iraqis. ANALYSTS: N. Korea after spot on Obama radar Yet, taking inspiration from Obama's campaign, a slate of black Iraqis who call themselves the Free Iraqi Movement is making a long-shot run in the elections for provincial legislatures Jan. 31. "We heard Obama's message of change," said Jalal Chijeel, secretary of the political party. "Iraq needs change in how they see their own black-skinned people. We need our brothers to accept us." The eight black candidates are competing with 1,800 others for 35 legislative seats in the Shiite-dominated, oil-rich province. "Even if we don't win, this is a very important first step to allow us to take our place as leaders in Iraq," said Sala al-Qais, 45, a black candidate who acknowledges his chances are slim. Chijeel said he first learned of Obama after the Democratic presidential candidate's upset victory in the Iowa caucuses a year ago. By July, Chijeel and his colleagues were inspired enough to announce their intention to run for office. He said other Iraqis initially "laughed at us for thinking we should be leaders." There are no reliable data on how many Iraqis are of African descent. Chijeel said they may account for as few as 300,000 of Iraq's 28 million people. The history of discrimination is clearly visible: Many black Iraqis in Zubayr live in stone and mud huts that are little changed since they were built three centuries ago. Chijeel and others here complain that black Iraqis are denied good jobs, which means many can't afford to pay for uniforms or books so their children can go to school. Even the relatively affluent face problems. Khalid Majid, 39, said he took his 6-year-old daughter out of school because she suffered constant harassment from classmates who called her abd, the Arabic word for slave, and other derogatory names. "It is my wish that she will read and write, but I cannot let her have these … problems," Majid said. On Tuesday, the Free Iraqi Movement will host some of the 2,500 black Iraqis who live in the neighborhood to watch Obama's inauguration speech. They'll have a feast where candidates will mingle with potential voters, and they plan to perform a traditional dance they inherited from their East African ancestors. Shihab Musat, 57, will be among those celebrating Obama's inauguration and voting for the black candidates. Musat said he remains skeptical that Iraq is ready to accept blacks as equals. "I don't know this Obama well, but I hope he will push Iraq's leaders to treat the black people with respect," Musat said as he stood outside a one-room house he shares with 14 family members. "My life has not been very different than my father's. I do not expect my sons' lives to be much better." http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2009-01-18-iraqobama_N.htm

Russia, Ukraine have "last chance" for gas deal

* Merkel to tell Putin Russia must honour contracts * European consortium to act from Friday * Putin and Tymoshenko to meet in Moscow on Saturday By Oleg Shchedrov BERLIN, Jan 16 (Reuters) - The European Union piled pressure on Russia and Ukraine on Friday to resolve a dispute cutting gas supplies to Europe in mid-winter and Germany said Russia must honour energy contracts. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who began a visit to Germany on Friday, is to meet Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in Moscow on Saturday on the gas price dispute and the EU Commission said such meetings provided a "last chance". "The European Commission believes that the meetings in coming days offer the last and best chance for Russia and Ukraine to demonstrate they are serious about resolving this dispute," Commission spokesman Johannes Laitenberger said. "The gas must flow. We will regard this period as a test case for judging whether or not they are credible partners." German Chancellor Angela Merkel will tell Putin on Friday that Russia and Ukraine must respect contractual obligations in their row over gas, a German government spokesman said. European energy firms were working on a plan to restore gas supplies to Europe hit since the start of the year. The head of German gas group E.ON Ruhrgas (EONGn.DE) has spoken to Merkel and will meet Putin in Berlin, a spokesman said. Paolo Scaroni, chief executive of Italian energy giant Eni SpA (EN.MI) said late on Thursday a consortium would provide gas necessary for technical reasons to get pipelines and pumping stations working again. The move could allow gas supplies to Europe to get under way immediately, leaving the question of reimbursement for the consortium's gas on hold until an agreement between Ukraine and Russia on their price dispute is reached. Scaroni said the consortium would include E.ON, Gaz de France Suez (GSZ.PA) and an Austrian company. Eni is Europe's leading gas operator and largest user of the Ukraine pipeline. Scaroni discussed the consortium idea with Putin on Thursday and flies to Germany on Friday. An official of Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) said the European consortium would deal with organisational issues on Friday and was unlikely at once to buy the gas needed for pumping to start. Putin and Tymoshenko's Moscow talks on Saturday aim to resolve the gas row, which has cut supplies to 18 states, forced many factories to close and left householders shivering. There was little enthusiasm in Brussels for a separate Moscow meeting with importers proposed by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. But the EU executive said it and the Czechs -- current holders of the EU presidency -- would attend if Russian and Ukrainian leaders were there too. Senior east European officials will hold talks in Kiev on Friday on the disruption in gas supplies, the office of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said. Frustration is growing in the EU at the failure of Russia and the former Soviet republic of Ukraine to resolve the row over how much Kiev should pay Moscow for gas, or at least allow gas to flow to Europe while they argue it out. "It is clear today, even if they turn on the taps tonight and gas starts to flow, there has been irreparable, irreversible damage done, a loss of confidence in both Russia and Ukraine," said Martin Riman, Czech industry and trade minister. An EU-brokered deal was supposed to get supplies of Russian gas moving to Europe via Ukraine on Tuesday despite the pricing dispute. EU monitors are in place to ensure Ukraine does not siphon off gas, as Moscow has alleged it has done. BID TO DIVIDE EU? Brussels is concerned the meeting proposed by Medvedev in Moscow could be an attempt to divide the bloc, which has so far been relatively united on the issue. The European Union imports a quarter of its gas from Russia and 80 percent of its supplies go via Ukraine. The crisis has highlighted its vulnerability to disruption and sparked a new debate about diversifying supplies. Slovakia said on Thursday it would have to reduce supplies even to heating plants and cut off big industrial users unless Russian gas started flowing via Ukraine again by February. The row takes place against a backdrop of strained political ties between Moscow and Kiev. Russia is angered by the ambition of Ukraine's leaders to join the NATO alliance, and by their support of Tbilisi during the Russian-Georgian war in August. Ukraine's Yushchenko held talks with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in London on Thursday. Brown stressed the need for an "urgent resolution" of the gas problem, a spokesman said. Moscow is seeking a sharp rise in the prices Ukraine pays for its own gas supplies. Ukraine is reeling from a severe economic downturn, with output in the key steel sector falling 43 percent in December compared with December 2007. [nLF329189] (Additional reporting by Giancarlo Navach in Milan; writing by Charles Dick)

In Baghdad, taking the wheel

With violence reduced drastically, new cars have become the latest must-have for those who can afford it, as they get rid of clunkers they had stuck with to avoid kidnappings. By Kimi Yoshino and Caesar Ahmed January 15, 2009 Reporting from Baghdad — Customers circle the Hyundai showroom like a pack of hungry wolves. Most are waiting for the next delivery of cars to roll up to the lot. The others are kicking the tires and peering into windows, armed with a wad of cash and prepared to pay in full. No deal-making will be necessary. These cars practically sell themselves. The happy daydreams of an idle car salesman? Not in Baghdad. "I can't keep up with it," said Seyamend Mahmoud, sales manager at one of two Baghdad car dealerships. "If I bring 50 cars, in one day, I will sell them. If I bring 100, I will sell them in two days. . . . Even the luxurious, expensive cars are easily sold in here." Although American car sales have fallen off a cliff, pent-up demand for new cars in Iraq is fueling a car-buying boom the likes of which haven't been seen in decades. After Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990, the United Nations imposed an embargo that prevented the import of most nonessential consumer goods. Although some merchants began importing cars in 2003 after the ouster of Saddam Hussein's regime, most drivers stuck with their clunkers, fearful that a new car would make them easy targets for kidnapping or theft. But now, as security improves and residents travel more freely around Baghdad, new cars are the latest must-have accessory for the well-to-do. Tiny car lots -- dozens of them -- are cropping up in every neighborhood of the capital, offering all types of vehicles, including shiny red Humvees, silver Chevy Suburbans, and new ambulances and minibuses. And for the first time, the city boasts two authorized dealerships, Hyundai and Renault. These dealerships offer factory warranties, something no other car lot can match. The Al-Kasid Commercial Agencies Co., responsible for the two businesses, has also opened its own service center, where mechanics are trained to repair Hyundais and Renaults. The warranties are tailored for Iraq's harsh summers, with special protection for air conditioning and cooling systems. Mahmoud's boss, Ali Makkiyah, said negotiations were underway for the company to open a third dealership. Customer demand, he said, is there. For his Renault showroom, which opened in December, Makkiyah placed an order for 400 cars, which he expects to sell within a matter of months. It's a huge turnaround from 2006 and 2007, when the company sold no cars to individual buyers and only a few to the government. Now, the Hyundai dealership alone sells about 150 cars a month. That number would increase if Makkiyah could keep the cars in stock -- and if he accepted installment payments. But in Iraq, most consumers shun bank loans and most merchants will accept payment only in cash, in full, making the flurry of car sales even more surprising. Most of the buyers are businessmen who have made quick money on government contracts or import-export deals. The wealthiest in Iraq earn $30,000 a year or significantly more, but government employees are more likely to make only $7,000 to $12,000. On a recent afternoon, Hewa Mohammed Ahmed, 31, waited to complete his final contract for a new Hyundai Tucson SUV. "I bought it today," he said, smiling. It's the first new car the government worker has owned. "I picked a new car, a brand-new car, with no mechanical problems. It's nothing like you get in the streets." Ahmed said he has been saving for a new car and believes it will be a good investment because he will no longer have to pay taxi fares to get to his job in the Green Zone. Yaser Sumrai came to the showroom with his wife, and a little while later the journalist for an Iraqi TV station walked away the proud owner of a Hyundai Santa Fe that he bought for $25,700. "Security is a lot better," he said. "There's no more danger in driving a new car on the streets of Baghdad. . . . But I hope other companies also open so we can have companies and the customers will have better choices and prices." Away from the authorized dealerships, new car prices can be inflated to meet demand. One merchant displayed a fully loaded 2009 Ford Flex in his small lot. He planned to sell it for $60,000, almost double what it would cost in the States. These lot owners buy from dealers in Kuwait and Jordan, then ship the cars into Iraq. These businessmen are well aware of the international financial crisis and the economic woes facing American car manufacturers. Even in Baghdad, U.S. companies may have their work cut out for them, lot owner Imad Abed said. The perception among Iraqis, who like their cars white because it keeps drivers cooler, is that the air conditioning in American cars is not as reliable as in Japanese cars. "About 60% buy Japanese, and the other 40% are for American and German cars," Abed said. "You have to convince people that American cars are more solid. "But still, if an American company comes over here and sells, they will do very well, especially if they give a warranty and a mechanic." And unlike in the U.S., where manufacturers are slashing prices and offering incentives, businessmen such as Mustafa Mohammed, owner of the Al-Kather lot, can stick to a pretty tough set of rules. "We don't need to do any advertising," Mohammed said. "And there's no such thing as a guarantee. You have to pay the whole amount, no installments. Only if he's my friend will I let him." Customers in Baghdad don't even get to test-drive their cars. "After you buy your car, you can go for a test drive," Mohammed said, adding that security is good, but not that good.

Bin Laden urges Jihad against Israel over Gaza

By LEE KEATH, Associated Press Writer Lee Keath, Associated Press Writer 40 mins ago CAIRO, Egypt – Osama bin Laden urged Muslims to launch a jihad against Israel, seeking to harness anger over the Gaza offensive with a new message posted on the Internet on Wednesday. The al-Qaida chief vowed to open "new fronts" against the U.S. and its allies beyond Iraq and Afghanistan and also criticized Arab leaders, accusing most of them of being allies of the U.S. and Israel. The White House dismissed the call to jihad, saying it reflects bin Laden's isolation and shows he is trying to remain relevant at a time when his ideology and mission are being challenged. Bin Laden spoke in a 22-minute audiotape posted on Islamic militant Web sites where al-Qaida usually issues its messages. The 51-year-old al-Qaida leader has been in hiding since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, believed to be living somewhere along the lawless Pakistan-Afghan border. It was bin Laden's first tape since May and came nearly three weeks after Israel launched the offensive against Hamas that Gaza medical officials say has killed more than 1,000 Palestinians. He said President-elect Barack Obama has received a "heavy inheritance" from George W. Bush — two wars and "the collapse of the economy." He predicted that burden will render the U.S. unable to sustain a long fight against the mujahedeen, or holy warriors. There is "only one strong way to bring the return of Al-Aqsa and Palestine, and that is jihad in the path of God," Bin Laden said, referring to the revered Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. "The duty is to urge people to jihad and to enlist the youth into jihad brigades." He also appealed for donations to finance the fight, saying the "tithes from any of the great Muslim or Arab traders" would be enough "for jihad on all the fronts." The authenticity of the tape could not be independently confirmed. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said he had no reason to question its authenticity but was not certain whether the U.S. had verified the voice. "It appears this tape demonstrates his isolation and continued attempts to remain relevant at a time when al-Qaida's ideology, mission and agenda are being questioned and challenged throughout the world," said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council at the White House. "This also looks to be an effort to raise money as part of their ongoing propaganda campaign," Johndroe said. The tape, entitled "A call for jihad to stop the aggression on Gaza," was played over a picture of bin Laden and the Al-Aqsa Mosque, one of Islam's holiest sites. There were no English subtitles or the flashy production graphics that usually accompany such messages. That suggested the message had been hastily put together to exploit Muslim anger over the Gaza offensive. Israel says the offensive aims to halt rocket fire from Gaza against Israeli towns but Palestinian medical officials say half of those killed have been civilians. "The bin Laden speech is an obvious and cheap attempt to capitalize on the Arab world's boiling anger about the Israeli invasion of Gaza," said terror expert Eric Rosenbach of the Center for International Affairs at Harvard's Kennedy School. He said links between al-Qaida and Gaza's Hamas rulers are "tenuous at best" and that Hamas, which seized power in Gaza in 2007, has historically distanced itself from bin Laden's terror movement. Bin Laden and his lieutenants frequently use the Palestinian issue to try to rally support for al-Qaida and often call for holy war to free Jerusalem. But there has been little sign that the terror group has carried out attacks in Israel. Bin Laden made no direct reference to Hamas, and al-Qaida leaders have frequently criticized the Palestinian militant group for participating in elections and failing to seriously pursue jihad against Israel. The al-Qaida leader also accused Arab leaders of "avoiding their responsibility" to liberate Palestine. "If you are not convinced to fight, then open the way to those who are convinced," he said. Bin Laden accused most Arab leaders of allying themselves with the U.S. and Israel. Rita Katz, director of SITE Intelligence Group that monitors militant Web sites, said bin Laden was "attempting to convince Palestinians and the Muslims around the world that the only group that can help them is the jihadists" and that "Arab rulers and the Palestinian movements have failed them." "His other purpose is to exploit the conflict to exhort others to jihad and build support for al-Qaida," she said. Katz said the bin Laden's appeal for money to finance jihad was unusual and "might reflect financial difficulties facing al-Qaida." Bin Laden pointed to financial problems facing the U.S., saying that was a sign that the U.S. power was falling apart. "The Islamic nation's jihad is one of the main causes of these destructive results for our enemies," he claimed. He pointed to wars in Afghanistan and Iraq since the Sept. 11 attacks, saying al-Qaida was prepared to fight "for seven more years, and seven more after that, then seven more." "The question is, can America continue the war against us for several more decades? The reports and signs show us otherwise," he said. He said Bush had left his successor "with a heavy inheritance," forcing Obama to choose between withdrawing from the wars or continuing. "If he withdraws from the war, it is a military defeat. If he continues, he drowns in economic

No way forward while the Hamas hydra lives

For Islamists in Gaza, Palestine is part of a global religious struggle not a battle to create an independent state Amir Taheri UK Guardian The conflict in Gaza has been triggered by Israel's belief that the status quo has become intolerable and should be overturned. There are several reasons why Israel felt it could not live with the situation in Gaza. The most immediate is the rocket attacks by Hamas that have made life for nearly a tenth of Israelis an exercise in anxiety. Also a factor is that Hamas, since it staged its putsch two years ago, has closed Gaza to all Palestinian groups that have accepted a two-state solution. This makes it impossible for Israel and the administration of President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) in the West Bank to restart negotiations that could lead to the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. More importantly, perhaps, Hamas has forged an alliance with Iran based on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's strategy of “wiping Israel off the map”. Tehran's investment in Hamas is large enough to have given it a decisive say in shaping the group's strategy. Israelis see Hamas as one of the two arms of a pincer, along with Iranian-funded Hezbollah in Lebanon, that Tehran is building against them. Thus, Israel's war aims are clear: end the rocket attacks, reopen Gaza to other Palestinian parties and eliminate the Iranian presence. This means creating a new status quo in which Hamas is not the dominant party in Gaza. Background UN aid agency suspends work after Gaza strike Analysis: No new Lebanon confronation over Gaza, yet Hamas: it's not black and white The world won't act so Israel does Some commentators have claimed that the cause of the current war is Israel's occupation. But Gaza - until last weekend - was the one bit of Arab territory nominally under Israeli occupation that was free of Israeli settlers and troops. Yet, most of Israel's troubles, in the form of rocket attacks and suicide operations, came from Gaza. At the other end of the spectrum, the Golan Heights, under Israeli occupation since 1967, have been as quiet as a churchyard despite the presence of large numbers of Israeli settlers and troops. Hamas, as its charter and political literature make clear, does not want an end to Israeli occupation. It wants the end of Israel. That is because Hamas is part of a pan-Islamist movement with global messianic ambitions. Creating a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank is not its aim. A branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas dreams of world dominion for its version of Islam rather than a mini-state in 5,000 square kilometres of barren land in a geopolitical backyard. Although officially created in 1987, Hamas's roots go back to the 1930s when Haj Amin al-Hussaini, the Grand Mufti of Palestine under the British Mandate, allied himself with Hitler and dreamt of reviving the Islamic Caliphate with himself as Caliph. That Hamas cares little about Palestine as a would-be nation state is clear from its name and charter. Hamas is the Arab acronym for “Islamic Resistance Movement”, making it clear that the movement regards Palestine not as a nation in its own right but as a small part of the ummah, the community of believers. Hamas is the only significant party in Palestine whose name does not include the words Palestine or Palestinian. To Hamas ideologues, such as the late Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, love of Palestine as a nation is a form of sherk, that is to say false worship or idolatry. Hamas sees Palestinian nationalists such as Abu Mazen as traitors to Islam. To Hamas, Palestine is part of a cause rather than a political project. One cannot negotiate with a cause that claims celestial benediction, especially when it rejects the very legitimacy of one's existence. A political project, however, is negotiable because it is about worldly problems such as territory, borders, security, exchange of populations and joint administration of certain areas, which could have worldly solutions. For decades, Palestinians suffered because their leaders - starting with the Mufti and ending with Yassir Arafat - linked the problem of Palestine with big power rivalries in which Palestine was a slogan and a pretext. It was only in the 1990s that the Palestinian leadership, led by Fatah, managed to redefine Palestine as a territorial conflict between two neighbouring nations, rather than as part of a clash of civilisations. That redefinition led to the Oslo Accords and the creation of a Palestinian administration - the first step towards statehood. Hamas, however, rejects that redefinition and is trying to recast Palestine as a religious issue in Islam's global struggle against the “infidel”. Many Palestinians see this as a betrayal of their national aspirations. They do not wish to be the sacrificial lamb of pan-Islamist global ambitions as they were for pan-Arabism in the 1960s. Cutting Hamas down to size would be good not only for Israel but also for the Palestinian people, more specifically the people of Gaza, who have become captives of a one-party state mired in corruption and incompetence. That, however, is no easy task. Hamas is a many-headed beast. One head represents the part of Hamas that deals with welfare, health and education. It imposed its domination in that field by driving out more than 200 NGOs, seizing control of the running of independent clinics and schools and infiltrating its people into the running of international aid agencies. A second head is represented by Hamas's political network that managed to win 46 per cent of the votes in the only free elections held in the territories. Although the Hamas political machine remains strong, it is not at all certain that it could deliver that many votes in the next elections. A third head of Hamas consists of its network of business concerns. Through a mixture of patronage, judicious investments and intimidation it has gained control of the Gazan economy - everything from barber shops to textile workshops. It also runs a protection racket and a contraband network. As a business concern, Hamas raised its profile when it seized control of more than 600 companies controlled by Fatah and the Arafat clan. Finally, there is Hamas's terror machine, a paramilitary force of about 20,000 men and women, answerable only to their own command structures. It is that part of Hamas that Tehran is trying to buy and control through figures such as Khaled Mishal, head of the Hamas political bureau. Later this year Palestinians are due to vote for a new parliament and president. Divided into a Hamasstan in Gaza and Fatah-land in the West Bank, they would have little chance of creating a unified government capable of pressing for a Palestinian state. A change of status quo in Gaza could give them a chance. Amir Taheri's latest book is The Persian Night: Iran Under the Khomeinist Revolution, published this month by Encounter Books

Air Force Releases 'Counter-Blog' Marching Orders

Good idea.. By Noah Shachtman Wired Magazine January 06, 2009 | Bloggers: If you suddenly find Air Force officers leaving barbed comments after one of your posts, don't be surprised. They're just following the service's new "counter-blogging" flow chart. In a twelve-point plan, put together by the emerging technology division of the Air Force's public affairs arm, airmen are given guidance on how to handle "trolls," "ragers" -- and even well-informed online writers, too. It's all part of an Air Force push to "counter the people out there in the blogosphere who have negative opinions about the U.S. government and the Air Force," Captain David Faggard says. Over the last couple of years, the armed forces have tried, in fits and starts, to connect more with bloggers. The Army and the Office of the Secretary of Defense now hold regular "bloggers' roundatbles" with generals, colonels, and key civilian leaders. The Navy invited a group of bloggers to embed with them on a humanitarian mission to Central and South America, last summer. Military blogger Michael Yon recently traveled to Afghanistan with Defense Secretary Robert Gates. In contrast, the Air Force has largely kept the blogosphere at arms' length. Most of the sites are banned from Air Force networks. And the service has mostly stayed away from the Pentagon's blog outreach efforts. Captain Faggard, who's become the Air Force Public Affairs Agency's designated social media guru, has made strides in shifting that attitude. The air service now has a Twitter feed, a blog of its own -- and marching orders, for how to comment on other sites. "We're trying to get people to understand that they can do this," he tells Danger Room. The flow chart lays out a range of possible responses to a blog post. Airmen can offer a "factual and well-cited response [that] is not factually erroneous, a rant or rage, bashing or negative in nature." They can "let the post stand -- no response." Or they cancan "fix the facts," offering up fresh perspective. No matter what, the chart says, airmen should "disclose your Air Force connection," "respond in a tone that reflects high on the rich heritage of the Air Force," and "focus on the most-used sites related to the Air Force." Despite the chart's sometimes-stiff language, former military spokesman Steven Field says he's "a fan." Field, who's been occasionally critical of the armed services' blog outreach efforts, tells Danger Room: "I've always thought that a military-like process would be a good bridge to connect the services with the blogosphere. There's a field manual for everything in the military, so this flow-chart presents online communications in a DoD [Department of Defense] friendly format." One stipulation -- While it should be a guide of communications, it shouldn't become a ball-and-chain. Online comms require some level of nimble, on-your-feet response. As long as the Air Force doesn't use the "evaluate" phase to get approval from every Tom, Dick and Harry in the Pentagon, it should be a good tool. "Now they just need to lift those damn IP [Internet Protocol] filters," Field adds, so airmen can actually read those blogs that they're supposed to respond to.

Iran's Larijani meets Hamas political chief Meshal in Damascus

By Reuters Senior Iranian politician Ali Larijani met with Hamas political chief Khaled Meshal in Damascus on Wednesday as the Palestinian Islamist group considered an Egyptian proposal for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Larijani, speaker of parliament and one of the major figures in the Islamic Republic, met Meshal and several high level officials from Hamas at the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital, witnesses said. The meeting stretched into the early hours of Thursday, with n Advertisement o details emerging from the deliberations. Larijani earlier met leaders of Islamic Jihad, a smaller Palestinian group with close links to Iran. Iran and Syria are the major backers of Hamas, and Syria hosts members of Hamas's exiled leadership, including Meshal. The two countries have influence on Hamas but little is known about what advice Tehran and Damascus have been giving Hamas in the current crisis. Larijani also met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Wednesday to discuss the "dangerous situation" in Gaza, the official Syrian news agency said. He is the second Iranian official to visit Syria since Israel's ground invasion of Gaza began on Saturday. Saeed Jalili, a senior Iranian security official, met Hamas and Islamic Jihad officials in Damascus this week, before Egypt announced a plan for a truce in Gaza brokered by France. Hamas said it was looking at the plan, which aims to prevent Hamas rearming through smuggling tunnels from Egypt and tackles Hamas's demand for an end to Israel's blockade on Gaza, a major reason cited by Hamas behind its decision not to renew a truce with Israel last month.

Hamas feeding kids a TV diet of hatred

UK Daily Telegraph Piers Akerman Wednesday, January 07, 2009 at 06:37pm ISRAEL’S Operation Cast Lead is unfolding like a familiar soap opera on the nightly news. A series of Palestinian terrorists making blood-curdling threats against Israelis, a hail of missiles aimed at Israeli civilian targets, retaliatory strikes against the terrorists - who unfailingly seek to shelter behind innocent civilians - followed by scenes of weeping parents at crowded hospitals. It is a plot line designed to soften the hardest heart. Unfortunately, those who buy the tear-jerking material unquestioningly are being duped. No one, let alone a parent raised in a Western culture, could imagine placing children directly in harm’s way or encouraging impressionable infants to worship death but that is what the thugs and murderers responsible for the slaughter in Gaza have been doing. It is an Islamist thing and Palestinian TV, often subsidised by the United Nations and European Union, is full of it. In regular drama directed at kindergarten-aged children, children are taught that martyrdom is a beautiful state to aspire to, that suicide bombers are heroes and heroines and that even cartoon characters can sing and dance and murder their way into paradise. Palestinian Media Watch and the Middle East Media Research Institute have been documenting this extraordinary perversion in recent years. Among the scripts translated from Arabic is a cute story of the four-year-old daughter of female suicide bomber Reem Riyashi, shown singing to her dead mother and swearing to follow in her explosive footsteps. The video clip, aired on Hamas TV, depicts the little child asking her mother what she is carrying (it is explosives) and why she is putting on a hijab. All is made clear when the local newspaper (and headstone) reveals that mummy dearest was no soccer-mum but indeed a bomber-mum. “Instead of me you carried a bomb in your hands. Only now, I know what was more precious than us . . . may your steps be blessed,” the little girl sings. “Send greetings to our Messenger (Mohammed) and tell him: ‘Duha loves you.’ My love will not be (merely) words. I am following Mummy in her steps.” At which point she finds some explosives her bomb-loving mum left in a drawer and picks up a stick, happily singing: “Oh Mummy, Oh Mummy.” Don’t think this is some aberration. Abhorrent agitprop is the currency of Palestinian children’s television programming, with even cartoon characters depicting martyrdom as a highly desirable goal. In a regular show on Hamas TV early last year, giant rabbit “Assud” replaced his brother “Nahoul” - a giant bee who had died after failing to get into hospital in Egypt for surgery. Assud told his young audience: “We are all ready to sacrifice ourselves for the sake of our homeland. We will sacrifice our souls and everything we own for the homeland”, vowing also to “get rid of the Jews and eat them up”. Regular viewers would recall Nahoul himself replaced “Farfour”, the Hamas mouse who was shown being “killed” on the show by an Israeli soldier in 2007. As the young female host Saraa Bahoum told her audience: “Yes, my dear children, we have lost our dearest friend Farfour. Farfour was martyred while defending his land, the land of his fathers and forefathers. He was martyred at the hand of criminals, the murderers, the murderers of innocent children who killed Iman Hijo, Muhammed Al-Dura and many others.” The martyred mouse was more likely a victim of copyright lawyers who saw too close a resemblance to Disney’s Mickey Mouse but that wasn’t in the script. The bee made that clear when he said: “I want to continue in the path of Farfour - the path of Islam, of heroism, of martyrdom, of the mujahidin. Me and my friends will follow in the footsteps of Farfour. We will take revenge upon the enemies of Allah, the killer of the prophets and of the innocent children, until we liberate Al-Aqsa from their impurity. We place our trust in Allah.” Indoctrinating children to become suicide bombers and human shields is a declared goal of Hamas, as Fathi Hamad, a representative of the terrorist organisation, proudly told the Palestine Authority Legislative Council last year. “For the Palestinian people death became an industry at which women excel and so do all people on this land: the elderly excel, the Jihad fighters excel and the children excel,” Hamad said. “Accordingly (Palestinians) created a human shield of women, children, the elderly and the Jihad fighters against the Zionist bombing machine, as if they were saying to the Zionist enemy: ‘We desire death as you desire life’.” To ensure that the “death industry” doesn’t experience a slow-down, Hamas has placed its fighters in civilian homes, schools and hospitals. It would be inhuman in the extreme not to feel sympathy for the children being used in this callous manner but it would be unintelligent not to ask why those who are exploiting them are not being called to account.

Tunnels – the secret weapon for Hamas

Troops may face street guerrillas equipped by a web of underground supply lines By Kim Sengupta and Ben Lynfield in Jerusalem Tuesday, 6 January 2009 SUHAIB SALEM/REUTERS The tunnels between Egypt and Gaza are a conduit for consumer goods, livestock - and arms Israel's ground offensive is reaching a critical stage where its forces may soon have to face Hamas fighters on their chosen killing ground, the narrow, winding alleyways of Gaza City. Despite the days of relentless air strikes, Israeli commanders admit that the Islamist movement still has large quantities of weapons and up to 20,000 trained men to use in a bloody campaign. The Hamas arsenal has been smuggled in through the intricate network of tunnels that dip under the Egyptian border, a network that has also provided the economic lifeblood for the Palestinian territory suffering from severe and punitive sanctions imposed by Israel. The fact that these tunnels have played a key role in keeping Hamas in political and military power has made them not only targets of Israeli attacks but also a key issue in any ceasefire. There are believed to be hundreds of tunnels criss-crossing the nine-mile wide barren border between Gaza and Egypt along what has become known as the Philadelphi Corridor. Constructed over years and varying in depth and width, the tunnels have carried everything from rockets to cattle. Some also allow access to routes for supposed VIPs to have quicker entry and exit from the Palestinian enclave. Professor Efraim Inbar, director of Israel's Bar-Ilan University's Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies, believes the Israeli government bears a degree of responsibility for the existence of the tunnels. "They did not take them seriously at first and did not invest enough money and resources to detecting and stopping them. The problem they now face is that they have to destroy all the main tunnels and then also make sure that they are not rebuilt in the future." In the past the Israelis have considered a number of options to deal with the tunnels, including digging a moat flooded with seawater, deterring smugglers with the risk of drowning. The plan was dropped, however, after it became apparent it could contaminate Gaza's crumbling underground aquifer. The Israelis have also asked the US to provide its Army Corps of Engineers to build an underground wall on the Egyptian side of the Philadelphi Corridor. The Americans are said to have agreed in principle although it is unclear whether the Egyptians had also given the green light. Jerusalem's demand that there should be stringent checks carried out by an international force to monitor any ceasefire shows the Israeli anxiety about the underground routes being reopened. For the moment, the Israelis are trying to destroy the network with pulverising bunker-busting bombs acquired from the US. Nicholas Pelham, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, said closing the tunnels permanently would be a major and lengthy undertaking. "Without occupying a fairly broad stretch of territory, it is hard to see how you can maintain the closure of the tunnels long-term," he said. The more immediate concern for Israel is how Hamas's armed wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, have used the tunnels to prepare for battle. The militia is said to have sent thousands of members for training to Iran and Lebanon, where they have drawn on the tactics used successfully by Hizbollah against the Israelis in 2006. According to one Hamas commander, one of the lessons learnt is to reduce the risk of taking return fire by not detonating missiles on site. Fighters "dig tunnels and use lengths of detonation wire so they can launch missiles from a distance. So we lose a tube or a firing frame worth $10, not soldiers". Abu Bilal, a commander of Islamic Jihad, which operates independently from Hamas in Gaza, acknowledged the rocket attacks have been psychologically damaging for Israelis but have little military impact. "We can't do anything but fire the rockets and hope they enter Gaza," he said. "We are praying for the tanks to come so we can show them new things. All our fighters wait for the chance to kill them." Hamas's weaponry includes Qassam missiles, mainly manufactured within Gaza, and Chinese copies of Russian-made Grads smuggled from across the border along with mortars, rocket-propelled grenade launchers, heavy calibre machine guns, mines and improvised devices. Hamas also inherited a stockpile of US-made small arms and ammunition abandoned by the rival Fatah movement when its fighters were driven out of Gaza in 2007. Hamas has also upgraded its military structure with five brigades under separate commanders who report to Izz al-Din al-Qassam chiefs but have also been trained to carry on as individual units when necessary. The militant group has also been beefing up its propaganda offensive to try to take on the sophisticated Israeli machine. With journalists barred from Gaza by the Israeli military, the Hamas website – the Palestinian Information Center (PIC) – is the main weapon in getting its side of the story to the wider world. It pumps out reports of heavy casualties among invading Israelis, emotive accounts of Gaza civilians "eradicated", and vows to strike deeper and harder into enemy territory. The website yesterday displayed the mobility of a guerrilla fighter. Saying PIC was under "violent and organised electronic attack", Hamas engineers deftly offered another web address "in case of the halting of the site". Israel disrupted Hamas's al-Aqsa TV station, inserting a cartoon showing Hamas fighters being blown up coupled with an advisory "You won't succeed." The website says Israel's ground operation amounts to "swimming in the blood of women and children". The PIC says Hamas is holding its own, inflicting at least 11 fatalities and dozens of injuries on Israeli troops. "The surprises are just beginning," it suggests. "Disciples ... are waiting for the Zionists with explosive belts" according to one article, while another spoke of the "Nazi occupation army". What is Hamas? The origins and mission *Who are they? In Arabic, the word "hamas" means zeal, but it is also the Arabic acronym for the Islamic Resistance Movement. The group came into being in 1987 after the eruption of the first intifada. *How is it organised? The armed element, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, carries out suicide bombings – the first was in 1993. The political wing, which romped to victory over Fatah in the 2006 elections, runs local government and services. *Who are the key people? The de facto prime minister of Hamas is Ismail Haniyeh. The group's overall leader, Khaled Meshal, lives in exile in Syria. He was poisoned by Israeli secret services in Jordan in 1997, but King Hussein forced Israel to send an antidote to save his life. *What are Hamas's aims? In the short term, Hamas wants to drive Israeli forces from the occupied territories. It is committed to the destruction of Israel and, in the long term, wants to establish an Islamic state on all of historic Palestine. *How is Hamas viewed? A 2007 Pew survey found that almost two-thirds of Palestinians had a favourable opinion of the group. Iran and Syria both support Hamas, while all other Arab countries formally back the Palestinian Authority led by Mahmoud Abbas. The US and the EU have branded Hamas a terrorist organisation, but have sought an easing of the Israeli blockade of Gaza.